Quaker State 400 Predictions & Odds 2026: NASCAR Picks, Props, Best Bets at Atlanta
After cashing our +1400 outright and -140 top-10 slips for Chase Briscoe at Chicagoland, we're onto Atlanta, a 1.5-mile drafting track. A Toyota driver has led the most laps in every drafting race this year, so let's dive into my NASCAR predictions at Atlanta with that in mind.
The Quaker State 400 will get underway on Sunday, July 12 at 7 p.m. ET (TNT, truTV, HBO Max) at EchoPark Speedway, formerly known as Atlanta Motor Speedway.
📈 NASCAR odds at Atlanta: Quaker State 400
Latest NASCAR odds at BetMGM as of Saturday, July 11; subject to change.
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney | +700 |
| William Byron | +800 |
| Chase Elliott | +800 |
| Tyler Reddick | +800 |
| Christopher Bell | +1000 |
| Joey Logano | +1200 |
| Carson Hocevar | +1200 |
| Austin Cindric | +1400 |
| Ross Chastain | +1400 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1600 |
| Denny Hamlin | +1600 |
| Kyle Larson | +1600 |
| Chase Briscoe | +1600 |
| Daniel Suarez | +1600 |
| Bubba Wallace | +1800 |
| Chris Buescher | +2200 |
| Ty Gibbs | +2500 |
| Alex Bowman | +3000 |
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💡 How to bet NASCAR at Atlanta
Drafting tracks create variance, which rewards luck. Still, Atlanta's surface is becoming rougher, producing excellent racing (just watch last year's finish) and rewarding skill. To correctly pick an Atlanta winner, you'll need a combination of good fortune and a good eye for talent on drafting tracks.
This spring's Atlanta race saw Tyler Reddick win from the pole, but it was Bubba Wallace who posted the fastest average green-flag speed. Three of the top five drivers in that metric piloted Toyotas. While I've tended to target Fords at these tracks, it's impossible to ignore that the manufacturer's focus has already shifted to next season and beyond.
🏆 Best bet to win the Quaker State 400
Bubba Wallace, 23XI Racing (No. 23)
Although his results may not jump off the page, Bubba Wallace is one of the best drivers on drafting tracks in the Cup Series. Toyota's numbers disadvantage and Ford's recent run of dominance likely obscure just how good Wallace can be at these venues. He has the ninth-best average driver rating on drafting tracks among active drivers since 2023, which may not seem great, but that leads the entire Toyota camp.
Wallace gets good marks in average driver rating due to his laps led: he ranks sixth among active drivers in laps led on drafting tracks since 2023 with 199. He has led 89 laps on drafting tracks this year alone, good for a whopping 13.5% of the total. The sportsbooks just haven't caught up to the reality that Fords are largely punting 2026, including at drafting tracks, giving the Toyotas a big leg up.
We're getting Wallace at +2000 (4.7%) at FanDuel to win and +145 (40.8%) at Caesars to score a top 10. Wallace has two top 10s in three starts on drafting tracks this year and has three top 10s in his last five Atlanta starts. The odds are just too good for us to pass up here.
📡 SBR Edge
Starting position can matter at drafting tracks, especially when it comes to avoiding accidents. Three of the last nine Atlanta winners started on the pole. This year, Wallace has qualified well on drafting tracks that use traditional qualifying procedures - he started ninth here in the spring and fourth at Talladega. Toyota drivers secured four of the five top 5 starting spots for Talladega, and I suspect we'll only see more dominance from them on drafting tracks as the season progresses.
🔥 More NASCAR picks & prop bets
I love Wallace here, but the only way to properly bet on a drafting track is to back multiple horses. We're doing just that by targeting another Toyota driver, and we're hedging slightly with some exposure to another manufacturer as well.
Chase Briscoe, Joe Gibbs Racing (No. 19)
- Chase Briscoe to win: +2000 via DraftKings (0.67u)
- Chase Briscoe top 10: +110 via bet365 (1.66u)
Like Wallace, Briscoe is an underrated driver on drafting tracks. While he didn't have the disadvantage of solely driving Toyotas at a time when Fords held a comparative advantage at these venues, he did pilot an underfunded No. 14 Ford, and he still scored multiple poles and top 5 results at these tracks. Since making the jump to Toyota last year, he already has a win at a drafting track, which came at Talladega last fall.
Briscoe's runner-up finish here in the spring was an encouraging sign that his Talladega victory wasn't a fluke. Briscoe also tends to qualify well for drafting tracks, earning a front-row starting spot three times in nine qualifying attempts on drafting tracks since joining his new team. Make sure to get your action on Briscoe down before qualifying in case he secures a solid starting position for yet another drafting track event.
Zane Smith, Front Row Motorsports (No. 38)
- Zane Smith to win: +5000 via BetMGM (0.34u)
- Zane Smith top 10: +260 via bet365 (1u)
Smith nearly came out of nowhere to win at Atlanta last summer, but Chase Elliott's late-race surge limited Smith to a seventh-place finish. Since then, Smith has compiled another four top 10s in just five starts on drafting tracks, including this spring's race at Atlanta. Smith isn't dominating - he has just 20 laps led on drafting tracks since the start of 2025 - but he has a reputation as a good pusher, and he is managing to keep his No. 38 Ford in one piece.
💰 My NASCAR bets at Atlanta
Here are the actual NASCAR bets I'm making for the Quaker State 400 with the best odds from our best sports betting sites for Sunday's race at EchoPark Speedway.
| Best bets | Best odds | Units → profit |
|---|---|---|
| Bubba Wallace to win | +2000 via FanDuel | 0.67u -> 13.4u |
| Bubba Wallace top 10 | +145 via Caesars | 1.66u -> 2.41u |
| Chase Briscoe to win | +2000 via DraftKings | 0.67u -> 13.4u |
| Chase Briscoe top 10 | +110 via bet365 | 1.66u -> 1.83u |
| Zane Smith to win | +5000 via BetMGM | 0.34u -> 17u |
| Zane Smith top 10 | +260 via bet365 | 1u -> 2.6u |
Total wagered: 6 units | Max profit: 22.5 units (Zane Smith win)
🏆 Past NASCAR winners at EchoPark Speedway
Here is a list of every NASCAR race winner at Atlanta in the Next Gen era:
| Race | Winner | Team | Laps led |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | Tyler Reddick | 23XI Racing | 53 |
| Summer 2025 | Chase Elliott | Hendrick Motorsports | 41 |
| Spring 2025 | Christopher Bell | Joe Gibbs Racing | 1 |
| Fall 2024 | Joey Logano | Team Penske | 9 |
| Spring 2024 | Daniel Suarez | Trackhouse Racing | 9 |
| Summer 2023 | William Byron | Hendrick Motorsports | 20 |
| Spring 2023 | Joey Logano | Team Penske | 140 |
| Summer 2022 | Chase Elliott | Hendrick Motorsports | 96 |
| Spring 2022 | William Byron | Hendrick Motorsports | 111 |
Three of the nine winners above - Reddick (Spring 2026), Logano (Spring 2023), and Elliott (Summer 2022) won from the pole. In five of those nine races, the polesitter also led the most laps, including those three winners, Joey Logano (Summer 2025), and Aric Almirola (Summer 2023).
📺 How to watch NASCAR at Atlanta: 2026 Quaker State 400
- Date: Sunday, July 12
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: EchoPark Speedway (Hampton, Ga.)
- TV: TNT, truTV, HBO Max
- Track: 1.54-mile drafting track (260 laps, 400 miles)
- Stages: Stage 1 (60 laps), Stage 2 (100 laps), final stage (100 laps)
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