🏇 Preakness Stakes AI Prediction & Picks 2026: Claude's Notes & Full Projected Simulation

Ahead of the second jewel of the Triple Crown, I've returned to the robots for our Preakness Stakes AI predictions to project the full results of Saturday's 151st running at Laurel Park, which is set to begin at approximately 7:01 p.m. ET.

Two weeks ago, our Kentucky Derby AI predictions highlighted Golden Tempo as a 30-1 exotics horse, and he stole the show down the final stretch to cash as a long shot. With Golden Tempo skipping the Preakness, the field is wide open again, and I've gone back to Claude - Anthropic's AI model known for advanced logic and reasoning skills - to project the full finishing order for Saturday and its pick to win the Preakness Stakes.  

🤖 How we trained Claude for our Preakness Stakes AI predictions

In order to properly train Claude to execute on these AI projections, I started by initializing the chat with a full scope of the project before training the AI model on a wealth of historical Preakness Stakes data and recent form for every horse in the field.

For this year's projection, Claude analyzed the field across six dimensions:

• Speed figures: Beyer, Equibase, and Brisnet ceilings, with weight on horses showing figure progression
• Class & head-to-head form: Who has beaten whom on the Derby trail, and by how much
• Pace projection: How each running style fits the likely race shape
• Post position: Trip implications from each gate, adjusted for Laurel Park's configuration
• Trainer & jockey patterns: Preakness-specific records and barn-pattern recognition
• Value identification: Where the market price diverges from the analytical case

To be clear: these are AI projections, which should always be taken in context. I am not necessarily advising you or anyone to do anything with these projections. I've been training AI to make projections for major sporting events for years, and my standard is always that I will not publish AI predictions that I would not trust myself.

So, as I did two weeks ago, I will be placing my own bets on the following picks at FanDuel Racing. That paid off in a big way for me, and I hope we have the same fortune with our Preakness Stakes AI picks with analysis by Claude below.

🏆 Claude's AI pick to win the Preakness Stakes

Claude's prediction: Chip Honcho (No. 6)

Chip Honcho (5-1) ran the best race in this field, and the public has forgotten about it. In the February Risen Star (G2) at 1 1/8 miles, he led most of the way through fractions of :23.68, :47.49, and 1:11.53 before losing by a half-length to Paladin — and finished five and a half lengths clear of eventual Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo. That figure holds up as the strongest performance in this field at the Preakness trip. The Louisiana Derby fifth is explainable: Steve Asmussen acknowledged after the race he didn't have a good excuse and made the harder call — skip the Derby, give the colt time, point at Pimlico.

Asmussen is the winningest trainer in North American history (11,221+ wins) and a two-time Preakness winner with Curlin (2007) and Rachel Alexandra (2009). Jose Ortiz, fresh off winning the Kentucky Derby with Golden Tempo, jumped on Chip Honcho for the first time since the colt's maiden win. The Derby-morning five-furlong work at Churchill went in a flat 1:00, the fastest of 14 timed works at that distance. From post 6 — the cleanest tactical draw in the race — Ortiz can stalk a hot pace set by Taj Mahal, Napoleon Solo, and the rest of the speed inside of him. Pedigree (Connect, by Curlin) handles the distance. Everything fits.

💰 Best Preakness Stakes long shot

Claude's best long shot: Talkin (No. 5)

Talkin (20-1) is the best price-to-talent ratio in the field, and Irad Ortiz Jr. picking up the mount at this number is the loudest signal of all. He could have ridden anything on the card. He picked the 20-1. The Good Magic colt has been runner-up in the Grade 1 Champagne (to Napoleon Solo), third in the Grade 1 Blue Grass (behind 11-length winner Further Ado), and his progressive form is consistent with a colt his connections deliberately held back. Trainer Danny Gargan bypassed the Derby on purpose: "The Derby can ruin a horse. I'm looking at the long term."

Gargan won the 2024 Belmont with Dornoch, another son of Good Magic, after a similarly patient campaign. He describes Talkin as "a smaller version of Dornoch." Talkin's pedigree fits this race as well as any horse in the field — sire Good Magic was second in the 2018 Preakness, and the dam side traces through Tiznow. From post 5 with a stalking style in a race overloaded with early speed, Talkin sets up to take advantage of the inevitable pace collapse.

🎟️ Best Preakness Stakes exotic picks

Beyond the win pick and long shot, three more horses warrant inclusion in exactas, trifectas, and superfectas based on Claude's analysis.

Iron Honor (No. 9, 9-2)

The morning-line favorite arrives at Laurel with the strongest trainer-pattern argument in the race. Chad Brown is 2-for-2 in the Preakness when running a Wood Memorial horse that skipped the Kentucky Derby — Cloud Computing in 2017 and Early Voting in 2022, both following exactly the path Iron Honor is on now. The Wood seventh is forgivable: he brushed with Red Zone Runner on the first turn, got knocked off stride, and never recovered. The Belmont half-mile work the following weekend went in 48 seconds flat, 10th-fastest of 184 horses on the dirt that morning. Flavien Prat replaces Manny Franco, and the blinkers come off — both signals Brown wants the colt to relax. Co-owner William Lawrence also owned Cloud Computing.

Ocelli (No. 2, 6-1)

The maiden who almost won the Kentucky Derby. Ocelli rallied from far back to take a brief lead at the sixteenth pole at 70-1 before Golden Tempo and Renegade ran him down — beaten less than a length. The maiden tag is the only knock; the last maiden to win the Preakness was Refund in 1888. The cut back to 1 3/16 miles should suit him better than the Derby trip did, and the projected pace setup (heavy early speed inside) gives him exactly the chaos that unlocked his closing kick at Churchill. Tyler Gaffalione stays aboard and has a Preakness on his résumé (War of Will, 2019). Post 2 is workable if he gets a clean break.

Incredibolt (No. 12, 5-1)

The only horse in the field with a graded stakes victory at two turns this year. Incredibolt closed from far back to sixth in the Kentucky Derby, beaten four lengths by Golden Tempo after a bottled-up trip. His Virginia Derby (G3) at Colonial Downs was a four-length romp with closing fractions of 13.17, 12.05, 12.02 — 95 Equibase, 88 Beyer, 100 Brisnet, 115 Brisnet Late Pace. Jaime Torres has been aboard for all six career starts and won the 2024 Preakness with Seize the Grey. Riley Mott, son of Hall of Famer Bill Mott, is in his first Preakness. The outside post might be the trip he needs with this much speed inside.

📊 Preakness Stakes AI simulation & projected finish order

See the latest Preakness Stakes odds across the best horse racing betting sites.

How the race sets up

The pace is the foundation of this projection, and the pace scenario heavily favors stalkers and closers over front-runners. Five or six horses want to be on or near the lead: Taj Mahal from the rail, Napoleon Solo from post 10, Crupper, Pretty Boy Miah angling in from post 14, plus Bull by the Horns and Robusta complicating the inside traffic. That's a contested early fraction in a 14-horse field on a shorter Laurel homestretch (1,014 feet versus Pimlico's 1,152).

Chip Honcho and Ortiz have a clean tactical draw from post 6 to take whatever shape the race offers. Talkin can settle a few lengths off the speed and find a lane in the stretch. Ocelli's late kick aims at a field that's softened up by the early pace. Iron Honor wants to relax with blinkers off, which is exactly the script Brown is asking for. The horses most exposed are the ones who need the lead and the ones who need a faster pace to close into.

🏇 2026 Preakness Stakes horses & full field profiles

In addition to Claude's analysis below, our experts analyzed the latest Preakness Stakes betting trends and Preakness Stakes post positions for every horse in the field.

1. Taj Mahal (5-1)

A Florida-bred bay colt by 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist out of the Quality Road mare Oola Gal, bred by Vegso Racing Stable. Owned by a partnership including SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, and Stonestreet Stables. Originally trained by Bob Baffert in California before transferring east to Brittany Russell, who would become the first female trainer to win the Preakness if Taj Mahal scores — coming a week after Cherie DeVaux became the first female to win the Kentucky Derby. Husband Sheldon Russell rides. Taj Mahal is 3-for-3, all at Laurel: a sprint debut, the Miracle Wood by a neck, and an 8 1/4-length runaway in the April 18 Federico Tesio. He's the only horse in the field with a win at this track and distance.

2. Ocelli (6-1)

A Kentucky-bred bay by Connect out of the Scat Daddy mare Zalia, bred by Rosedown Racing Stables. Owned by Ashley Durr, Anthony Tate, and Front Page Equestrian. Trained by Whit Beckman, a former assistant to both Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown; Tyler Gaffalione rides. Ocelli is 0-for-7 but exits a third in the Kentucky Derby at 70-1 — he led at the sixteenth pole before Golden Tempo and Renegade ran him down. His career-best 115.8 Equibase came in the Wood Memorial third. A win would make him the first maiden to win the Preakness since Refund in 1888.

3. Crupper (30-1)

A Kentucky-bred homebred by Candy Ride out of the Include mare She's All In, bred and owned by Robert Zoellner and trained by Donnie K. Von Hemel. Junior Alvarado — the 2025 Kentucky Derby and Horse of the Year-winning jockey aboard Sovereignty — takes the mount after Bill Mott bypassed the race. Crupper improved through three Oaklawn starts: a 16-1 maiden win at 1 1/16 miles in his first try with blinkers, a third in an allowance, and a gate-to-wire half-length score in the April 18 Bathhouse Row that earned his Preakness berth. Worked five furlongs in :59.80 on May 1. Von Hemel's only prior Preakness starter was Our Gatsby in 1995.

4. Robusta (30-1)

A Kentucky-bred Calumet Farm homebred by Accelerate out of the Into Mischief mare Urbane Legend. Trained by 2012 Preakness winner Doug O'Neill; ridden by Rafael Bejarano. Robusta nearly upset the Grade 2 San Felipe at 67-1 — caught at the wire to lose by a head — then ran sixth in the Robert B. Lewis and seventh in the Santa Anita Derby before drawing into the Kentucky Derby off Right to Party's late scratch. He finished 14th at Churchill Downs after a wide trip. Sire Accelerate was the 2018 Eclipse champion older male after winning four Grade 1 races at 1 1/4 miles.

5. Talkin (20-1)

A Kentucky-bred bay by 2017 champion 2-year-old Good Magic out of the Tiznow mare Rote, bred by Fifth Avenue Bloodstock and purchased for $600,000 at the 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Owned by Pine Racing Stable, Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, Legendary Thoroughbreds, Belmar Racing and Breeding, and R. A. Hill Stable. Trained by Danny Gargan; Irad Ortiz Jr. picks up the mount. Talkin won his Saratoga debut over $1.3 million colt Stradale, ran second in the Grade 1 Champagne behind Napoleon Solo, faded to ninth in the Remsen and fifth in the Tampa Bay Derby, then woke up with a third behind 11-length winner Further Ado in the Blue Grass. Gargan won the 2024 Belmont with Dornoch, also by Good Magic.

6. Chip Honcho (5-1)

A Kentucky-bred dark bay or brown colt by Connect out of the Magician (IRE) mare Miss My Rose, bred by Venneri Racing and Tony Fanticola. A $210,000 yearling purchase, owned by Leland Ackerley Racing, James Sherwood, Jode Shupe, and John Cilia. Trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen — the winningest trainer in North American history with 11,221+ wins and two prior Preakness victories (Curlin, 2007; Rachel Alexandra, 2009). Jose Ortiz, who won the Derby on Golden Tempo, takes the mount. Career 6-2-2-0: maiden win in the slop at Churchill, Gun Runner Stakes win at Fair Grounds, fourth in the Lecomte behind Golden Tempo, runner-up in the Risen Star where he beat Golden Tempo by 5 1/2 lengths from the front, and a fifth in the Louisiana Derby. Worked five-eighths in 1:00 flat on Derby morning — fastest of 14 timed works at the distance.

7. The Hell We Did (15-1)

A Kentucky-bred bay by 2020 Kentucky Derby winner and Horse of the Year Authentic out of the Desert God mare Rose's Desert. A homebred for Joe R. Peacock Jr.'s Peacock Family Racing Stable. Trained by New Mexico-based Todd Fincher; Luis Saez rides. Half-brother to 2024 Saudi Cup (G1) winner Senor Buscador and Grade 3 winner Runaway Ghost. The Hell We Did won his Remington Park debut, ran second at Zia Park, won a Sunland Park allowance by 13 lengths in March, and finished second in the Grade 3 Lexington at Keeneland in his two-turn debut. Dam Rose's Desert has produced five black-type stakes winners from seven runners.

8. Bull by the Horns (30-1)

A Kentucky-bred gray or roan by 2021 Belmont winner Essential Quality out of the Blame mare No Sweat, bred by Ashview Farm and Colts Neck Stables. Owned by Peachtree Stable and Mark Corrado; trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. with Micah Husbands riding. Career-best 70 Beyer is the slowest top figure in the field, though his numbers have improved with every start (63, 64, 68, 69, 70). He won his last start, the Rushaway Stakes on Turfway's synthetic, with a 9 3/4-length stretch rally from last. Joseph originally pointed him to the Peter Pan but pivoted to Maryland after rain washed out two workouts. Pedigree suggests he wants more distance.

9. Iron Honor (9-2, ML favorite)

A Kentucky-bred bay by 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist out of the Blame mare Orencia, a $475,000 Keeneland September purchase. Owned by St. Elias Stable, William H. Lawrence, and Glassman Racing — Lawrence also co-owned Chad Brown's 2017 Preakness winner Cloud Computing. Career 3-2-0-0: a 95 Beyer sprint debut at Aqueduct, a Grade 3 Gotham win at a mile, and a troubled seventh as the 5-2 favorite in the Wood Memorial after brushing with Red Zone Runner on the first turn. Chad Brown is 2-for-2 in the Preakness with horses on this exact sequence (Cloud Computing, Early Voting). Blinkers come off; Flavien Prat replaces Manny Franco. Worked four furlongs in 48 flat on May 9 — 10th-fastest of 184 horses.

10. Napoleon Solo (8-1)

A Kentucky-bred gray or roan by Liam's Map out of the Scat Daddy mare Atomic Blonde, bred by John D. Gunther and Eurowest Bloodstock and purchased for just $40,000 at the 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Owned by Al Gold's Gold Square; trained by Chad Summers; Paco Lopez rides. The 2025 Champagne (G1) winner authored one of last year's most extraordinary 2-year-old performances at Aqueduct, leading wire-to-wire through fractions of :22.53, :44.24, and 1:07.88 before stopping the clock at 1:34.57 for the mile — 0.32 off the Aqueduct track record. He's finished fifth in both 2026 starts (Fountain of Youth, Wood Memorial), but two recent works (6f in 1:11 on April 24, 6f in 1:10 on May 2) signal a horse coming back to form.

11. Corona de Oro (30-1)

A Kentucky-bred Bolt d'Oro colt out of the Lemon Drop Kid mare Lemon de Oro, bred by Willow Oaks Stable. Purchased for $160,000 at the 2025 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Owned by On Our Own Stable, Commonwealth Stable, U Racing Stables, and others. Trained by Dallas Stewart, known for placing longshots in the Kentucky Derby (Golden Soul second at 34-1 in 2013, Commanding Curve second at 37-1 in 2014). John Velazquez rides his first Preakness mount since winning the 2023 edition with National Treasure. Corona de Oro broke his maiden going 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds in March and ran third in the Grade 3 Lexington behind Trendsetter and The Hell We Did. Worked five furlongs in :59 4/5 on May 2.

12. Incredibolt (5-1)

A Kentucky-bred dark bay or brown by Bolt d'Oro out of the Awesome Again mare Sapphire Spitfire, bred by Deann Baer and Dr. Greg Baer and purchased for $75,000 at the 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Owned by Pin Oak Stud, whose longtime leader Jim Bernhard passed away in November 2025. Trained by Riley Mott, son of Hall of Famer Bill Mott; Jaime Torres has ridden all six career starts and won the 2024 Preakness with Seize the Grey. Career 6-3-0-0: a Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes win as a 2-year-old, an unexplained sixth in the Holy Bull, a four-length Virginia Derby romp (95 Equibase, 88 Beyer, 100 Brisnet with a 115 Late Pace), and a sixth in the Kentucky Derby after a traffic-trouble trip. Dam side traces through Awesome Again, Mineshaft, and Unbridled.

13. Great White (15-1)

A Kentucky-bred gray or roan gelding by Volatile out of the Uncle Mo mare Kelly Bag, bred by Stud TNT and purchased for $55,000. Owned by Three Chimneys Farm and trainer John Ennis; Alex Achard rides. Great White won his Turfway debut and the John Battaglia Memorial on synthetic, then faded to fifth in the Grade 1 Blue Grass in his only dirt try. He flipped behind the gate moments before the Kentucky Derby on May 2 and was scratched after evaluation. Ennis breezed him himself on May 9 at the Thoroughbred Center going a half-mile in :52 1/5 — slow on the clock but enough to confirm the gelding was sound. Granddam Birkin Bag was a Grade 1 winner in Brazil at approximately 1 1/4 miles.

14. Pretty Boy Miah (15-1)

A Kentucky-bred gelding by Beau Liam out of the Mineshaft mare Tryingtolookpretty, bred by Thoroughbred by Design and purchased for $60,000. Owned by Team Penney Racing, Echo Racing, Flower City Racing, Anthony Bruno, and Christopher Meyer. Trained by Jeremiah Englehart; Ricardo Santana Jr. rides. Career 4-2-1-0, all at Aqueduct. Englehart added blinkers for a 6 1/2-furlong maiden score on March 29 (89 Beyer, the fastest maiden in the country that week) and followed up with a one-mile starter optional claiming win on April 25. Stakes debut, two-turn debut, and post 14 — which has never produced a Preakness winner — make this a class-and-trip test.

📺 How to watch the Preakness Stakes 2026

• When: Saturday, May 16
• Post time: 7:01 p.m. ET
• Where: Laurel Park (Laurel, Md.) (first time in race history)
• How to watch: NBC | Peacock | NBC Sports App