🤖 PGA Championship AI Predictions 2026: Who's ChatGPT, Gemini Taking to Win Golf's Second Major?

In 2026, the intersection of professional golf and predictive analytics has never been sharper. As the field heads to the historic, Gil Hanse-restored Aronimink Golf Club, the "gut feeling" of traditional handicapping is being replaced by machine-learning models that process thousands of data points; this is exactly what we're going for in our PGA Championship AI predictions. 

Let's dive into picks from ChatGPT and Gemini to determine who's walking away with the Wanamaker Trophy this week.

🤖 PGA Championship AI predictions: Best picks for Aronimink Golf Club

All AI predictions made on May 13, odds via FanDuel

💰 PGA Championship predictions from ChatGPT

👑 Scottie Scheffler (+1600)

Why he can win: Scheffler continues to be the most complete player in the world tee-to-green, and that consistency becomes even more valuable in major championship setups. He ranks among the elite in strokes gained approach and total ball striking, two metrics that historically translate extremely well at demanding PGA Championship venues. If the putter cooperates even slightly, Scheffler has the highest floor in the field and a legitimate chance to separate from the pack over four rounds.

⭐ Rory McIlroy (+2200)

Why he can win: Few players possess a higher ceiling than McIlroy when the driver is dialed in. Long, difficult layouts tend to favor elite drivers of the golf ball, and Rory still remains one of the best in the world off the tee. He also brings major-winning pedigree and the ability to pile up birdies quickly when momentum builds. If he finds a hot week with the putter, McIlroy has all the tools needed to contend deep into Sunday.

💸 Ludvig Aberg (+3500)

Why he can win: Aberg has quickly developed into one of the most dangerous young players in golf thanks to his elite combination of distance, composure, and iron play. His statistical profile fits perfectly for a major championship test, and his upside is reflected by the massive percentage of betting handle already backing him this week. At these odds, he offers strong value as a breakout candidate capable of landing his first major title.

🦾 PGA Championship predictions from Gemini

The model’s lock: Scottie Scheffler (+1600)

AI Win Probability: 19.4%

Key metric: 1st in SG: Approach (Last 24 Rounds)

The data remains indifferent to the "boring" narrative of Scottie’s dominance—it simply sees a machine. Scheffler leads our model in Adjusted Scoring Average and Bogey Avoidance. At Aronimink, where 174 bunkers await errant iron shots, Scheffler’s ability to find the center of the green regardless of lie is the highest-rated variable in our simulation. The AI predicts a 72% chance of a Top 5 finish, making him the foundational play for any 2026 portfolio.

The statistical value: Cameron Young (+1200)

AI win probability: 7.2%

Key metric: 2nd in Ball Speed; 4th in Proximity from 175-200 yards

While the public waits for Young to "prove" he can win a major, the AI suggests the win is mathematically overdue. Aronimink is a Par 70 that plays like a Par 72; its length demands elite ball speed. Young’s profile matches the winning blueprints of previous Aronimink victors, showing a high correlation between his "Total Driving" stats and the course's narrow landing zones. At his current market price, the model sees a 12% edge over the sportsbook’s implied probability.

The algorithmic sleeper: Corey Conners (+16000)

AI win probability: 3.1%

Key metric: 1st in Greens in Regulation (GIR) percentage

Every AI simulation looks for the "outlier" - the player whose price doesn't match their current ball-striking trajectory. This week, that is Corey Conners. Known for a cold putter, Conners has gained an average of +1.2 strokes on the greens over his last three starts on Bentgrass surfaces. When you pair his newfound putting stability with his world-class iron play, he becomes a "statistical ghost" that the model identifies as the premier value for a Top 10 (+450) or Top 20 (+190) wager.