FedEx St. Jude Championship First-Round Leader Prediction & Odds: Who Leads After Round 1 in TPC Southwind?

The FedEx St. Jude Championship first-round leader prediction and odds markets take center stage this week as the PGA Tour heads to TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee. A competitive field will look to navigate a demanding layout while earning valuable FedEx Cup points during the postseason.

TPC Southwind features narrow fairways, challenging approach shots, and difficult greens that can put pressure on players throughout the round. These conditions make the first-round leader market appealing, as players who start fast with their irons and capitalize on scoring opportunities can separate themselves and create valuable betting opportunities after Thursday's opening round.

💰 FedEx St. Jude Championship first-round leader predictions

Here are our top golf picks for the 18-hole leader of the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

⛳ Who'll lead the FedEx St. Jude Championship after Round 1?

Sam Burns (+2700)

Sam Burns stands out as a first-round leader candidate at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, especially given his success at TPC Southwind. Burns finished runner-up here in 2021 and added a fifth-place finish in 2024, showing his game translates well to this demanding layout.

He has already produced five top-10 finishes in 2026, highlighting his consistency heading into the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Burns’ ball-striking and par-4 scoring ability should give him plenty of birdie opportunities while helping him avoid costly mistakes. If his putter cooperates, Burns has the upside to post a low opening-round score. 

Chris Gotterup (+3500)

Chris Gotterup is an appealing first-round leader pick at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, especially after winning the John Deere Classic earlier this summer with a dominant 9-under 62. Gotterup also enters Memphis with strong ball-striking numbers, ranking 42nd on Tour in Greens in Regulation.

His aggressive approach can create plenty of birdie opportunities at TPC Southwind, and his current confidence makes him dangerous from the opening tee. With first-round leader odds at +3500, Gotterup offers attractive value in a market where one hot Thursday can put him atop the leaderboard.

Jackson Koivun (+4100)

Jackson Koivun is an intriguing first-round leader pick at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, particularly at his current odds around +4100. Koivun has shown an impressive ability to go extremely low, highlighted by back-to-back 62s during his record-setting Amer Ari Invitational performance earlier this year.

His aggressive style and strong scoring ability give him the upside needed to separate from the field on Thursday. Koivun also enters TPC Southwind with plenty of confidence after a dominant collegiate career. At a price above 40/1, he offers appealing value if he can catch fire with his putter and capitalize on early birdie opportunities.

⛅ What to consider when betting on the first-round leader

Betting on the first-round leader of any golf tournament is far different than betting on the tournament winner or any prop market.

Here are the factors I always consider with my first-round leader picks:

• Tee times
• Weather
• Course history
• Round 1 scoring average
• Recent form
• Key stats for the week

The first-round leader betting market is much more volatile than the 72-hole event. As such, the odds for the tournament favorites are higher in this market, and the odds for the long shots are generally slightly shorter when betting on the 18-hole sample.

Early tee times are typically best to target for your picks. Courses are often at their softest and easiest, with no divots in the fairways or wear on the greens. But the weather can significantly change that line of thought. Monitor the weatherto be sure your desired golfers will be dodging the worst of the rain and wind, should any be in the forecast.

I also greatly reduce my timeframe when looking at recent performance entering Thursday's first round.

Thursday's weather at TPC Southwind

Weather from Accuweather:

📊 FedEx St. Jude Championship first-round leader odds

Here are the FedEx St. Jude Championship first-round leader odds via our best golf betting sites.