🏇 Preakness Stakes Betting Trends 2026: Betting Strategies for Laurel Park

The Preakness Stakes may be the second jewel of the Triple Crown, but it’s a completely different betting puzzle than the Kentucky Derby. With a smaller field, shorter distance, and a race profile that heavily favors tactical speed, you'll need to follow our Preakness Stakes betting trends and strategies to make some money.

While front-runners, pressers, and stalkers have dominated recent editions, longshot closers still routinely spice up exactas, trifectas, and superfectas. From pace dynamics and post-position advantages to profitable betting trends and historical angles, here's what you need to know before placing your Preakness Stakes wagers.

🗒️Preakness Stakes betting strategies

Betting the Preakness is different than betting the Kentucky Derby because of the nature of the race, both from a distance standpoint and a field size standpoint. Even with a full 14-horse field this year, the Preakness allows you to be more selective and precise with your wagers. This means you don’t have to cover 10-12 horses with a vertical exotic wager, like exactas, trifectas, and superfectas.  

As we illustrated above with Exaggerator, you can win the Preakness as a closer. And as every horse since has shown, you probably won’t win it as a closer. That’s because front-runners, pressers and stalkers are the preferred genus of Preakness champions.  

How preferred? Thirteen of the last 17 Preakness champions were in the front half of the field after the first half mile. Go deeper and you find 10 of the last 17 winners were in the first three spots. Three of the last four winners: Seize the Grey, (2024), National Treasure (2023), and Early Voting (2022) were in the top three at the half-mile mark.

More proof? In 16 of the last 20 editions, the winner was in the front half of the field after the first half-mile. Three of the last four winners: Seize the Grey (first), National Treasure (first) and Early Voting (second) were in the top three at the half-mile mark.

All that said, add a closer to your vertical exotics. Five years ago, Jesus’ Team finished third behind Swiss Skydiver and Derby winner Authentic - at 40.90-1. When War of Will won the 2019 Preakness, Everfast finished second at 29-1. In 2017, when Cloud Computing won, Senior Investment finished third at 31-1. Other board-hitting, longshot closers included Tenfold (third at 26-1 in 2018) and Tale of Verve (second to American Pharoah in 2015 at 28-1).

While post position isn’t as important in the Preakness as it is in the 20-horse Kentucky Derby, posts 4-7 have produced the most winners according to TwinSpires. Post 6 (17 winners) leads the field in wins. Post 4, Post 5, and Post 7 have 14 winners apiece. Chip Honcho will start from Post 6, with Robusta (Post 4), Talkin (Post 5) and The Hell We Did (Post 7) filling those prime gates. Meanwhile, favorite Iron Honor is fighting a 4-for-80 record of colts starting in Post 9 and no horse has ever won from Post 14, which bodes ill for Pretty Boy Miah.

🔢 Preakness Stakes betting trends and stats

With this year’s Preakness moving to Laurel Park, betting trends are rather fluid. Handicapper Noel Michaels said that 1 3/16-mile races are rarely run at Laurel, which makes comparisons and examples tricky. Still, there are several trends worth considering.

Laurel Park is a more neutral track than its speed-favoring sister, Pimlico. But tactical speed still holds an edge. Michaels notes that Laurel’s 1 1/8-mile races use the main finish line, while the 1 3/16-mile distance uses the alternate finish line in the stretch. He said that gives an edge to front-runners.

Only five horses this century have come from more than four lengths back: Journalism (2025), Rombauer (2021), Exaggerator (2016), Curlin (2007), and Afleet Alex (2005).

Up until Journalism snapped the streak last year, the previous five Preakness winners - and six of the last 10 - did not run the Kentucky Derby, heading straight for the second jewel of the Triple Crown. This is the latest Preakness plot twist that upended the theory that running the first leg of the Triple Crown gives you a hoof up on the second leg. Before Journalism snapped that streak, War of Will (2019) was the last Derby alum to win the Preakness.

When he won last year at even money, Journalism broke another recent trend. Before him, Preakness favorites haven’t run to their odds. Since Justify’s 2018 victory en route to the Triple Crown, we’ve seen War of Will (6-1), filly Swiss Skydiver (11-1), Rombauer (11-1), Early Voting (6-1), National Treasure (3-1), and Seize the Grey (9.80-1) all beat their respective favorites. And along with the aforementioned, just since 2011, we’ve had Shackelford (12.60-1 in 2011), Oxbow (15.40-1 in 2013), and Cloud Computing (13.40-1 in 2017) win at double-digit odds. Six of the last 21 winners have gone off at double-digit odds.