3M Open Odds, Picks and PGA Tour Preview: Finau, Matsuyama Lead Soft Field to TPC Twin Cities

The PGA Tour's main event returns to the United States for the 2022 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, MN, in the wake of Cam Smith's victory at The Open Championship. Below, we preview the course and key stats, along with our top picks to win the 3M Open.

Cameron Champ returns to TPC Twin Cities to defend his 2021 title. He'll need to fend off the likes of recent PGA Tour winners J.T. Poston (John Deere Classic) and Chez Reavie (Barracuda Championship), along with pre-tournament favorites Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama, and Sungjae Im. Matsuyama is the top-ranked golfer in the field at No. 14 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR); however, he's coming off a disappointing T-68 finish at The Open.

Here are my top outright picks for the 2022 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities.

3M Open Odds

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3M Open Odds Analysis

Matsuyama is slightly discounted in the odds to win, coming in behind the lower-ranked Finau on the odds board. DraftKings Sportsbook is alone in giving Matsuyama and Im equal odds in the outright market, with FanDuel Sportsbook and BetMGM each hanging +2000 odds on the South Korean star.

The best odds for Champ as the defending 3M Open champion are available via DraftKings at +6500. At No. 130 in the OWGR, he's just the 22nd-ranked golfer in the field. He was priced at around +12500 ahead of his long-shot win last year.

TPC Twin Cities Course Profile

Par: 71Length: 7,431 yardsGreens: Bentgrass

TPC Twin Cities, designed by Arnold Palmer and opened in 2000, is a long par 71 at 7,431 yards. Champ was one of just five golfers to score in the 60s in all four rounds last year, even with nine holes playing below par for the tournament. Eleven golfers finished at -10 or better.

There's plenty of water defending TPC Twin Cities with natural, rolling terrain throughout. The most difficult hole in 2021 was the 502-yard, par-4 ninth with a scoring average of 4.287. It saw just 33 birdies against 110 bogeys, 25 doubles, and one other. The easiest hole was the 593-yard, par-5 12th at a stroke average of 4.481 with nine eagles and 242 birdies against 18 bogeys and four doubles.

Two par 4s are shorter than 400 yards, with four playing from 400 to 450 yards and five from 450 to 502 yards.

3M Open Key Stats

Strokes gained: off-the-teeSG: around-the-greenBirdie or better percentagePar-4 scoringScrambling

TPC Twin Cities is long with tight fairways so we're focusing on strokes gained: off-the-tee but with a preference for accuracy. To combat inaccuracies, we also need to consider scrambling, especially for the longer hitters. Champ won here last year at -15 with 2.12 SG: putting per round.

SG: around-the-green is another key metric with the rolling terrain. Scoring, especially on the varied par 4s, is highly important with the three winners at TPC Twin Cities doing so by scores of -21, -19, and -15.

3M Open Picks

Adam Long (+3500 viaCaesars Sportsbook)Matthias Schwab (+9500 via FanDuel)Ryan Armour (+15000 via Caesars)

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Who Will Win the 3M Open?

Long (+3500)

Adam Long played this event in each of the three previous runnings. He missed the cut in 2019 but finished second in 2020 and T-25 last year for an average of 0.97 strokes gained on the field across his 10 career rounds at TPC Twin Cities.

Long's just 192nd in the OWGR but is riding a streak of three straight made cuts with no finish worse than his T-25 at the Travelers Championship in that time. He ranked third in last year's 3M Open field with 1.05 SG: off-the-tee and seventh with 1.94 SG: tee-to-green per round.

The 34-year-old is ninth on Tour this season in scrambling percentage and T-15 in par-4 scoring. However, he's outside of the top 80 in each of our other three key stats for this week.

Schwab (+9500)

The odds for Matthias Schwab to win the 3M Open vary considerably from a market-low of +7000 with Caesars to the +9500 available via FanDuel. The 27-year-old is coming off a disappointing missed cut at the Barracuda Championship but previously tied for 16th against a strong field and under regular scoring rules at the John Deere Classic. Earlier this season, he had a stretch of five events with three finishes of T-8 or better.

Though he has just a T-32 finish in his only appearance at TPC Twin Cities to date, Schwab enters the 2022 event in fine form for the course. He's tied for 15th on Tour in par-4 scoring and is 32nd in SG: around-the-green.

Armour (+15000)

I'm definitely favoring those with the highest amounts of the limited course history at TPC Twin Cities this week. Among that group, Armour's odds to win are grossly inflated off of a T-6 finish in the 3M Open last year. His previous appearances resulted in a T-42 finish in 2019 and a missed cut in 2020. Putting and driving were his strongest traits in last year's finish.

Though he's slipped from No. 305 to No. 365 in the OWGR this year and missed the cut in each of his last three events, Armour enters this week still in good form for this specific venue. He's 41st on Tour in SG: off-the-tee, T-15 in par-4 scoring, and 38th in scrambling. He recently tied for 25th at the comparable TPC River Highlands in the Travelers Championship and will compete against a much weaker and thinner field this week.

Where to Bet on the PGA Tour

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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3M Open picks made on 7/18/2022 at 2:50 p.m. ET.