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BLAST Premier Spring 2020: Daily Esports Picks

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Adam’s BLAST Premier Spring 2020 (updated daily)

PicksWinLossPushAvg. PriceAccuracyProfit
8738445-10243.68%-6.56u

For those who would like to know more about CSGO betting including an introduction to the markets and some general tips, please read our Ultimate Guide to CSGO Betting.

MATCH BETS – June 21

Complexity has played their best CS at the Blast events this year. It is actually ridiculous comparing the statistics in all their matches in 2020 in comparison to just the BPS matches. Almost half the series Complexity competed in were from the Home Sweet Home Cup and Dreamhack. This was not the top tier Dreamhack Masters, but rather the small Dreamhack Open Anaheim and Leipzig. Somehow however Col’s numbers at the Blast events are superior to their yearly average. Either the timing has just been right, or they perform better on Blast series? Hard to say, but since taking them against Fnatic on June 8th, which they lost, they have been on a nice little run of form.

The second series can perhaps be summarized by a comment Moses made; ‘Vitality have only played one bad half of CS today.’ Unfortunately for them it came on their own map of Inferno after an excellent 10-5 T-side. When we moved to Nuke it was clear that Navi had truly ‘lucked out’ against G2 on that map the day prior, in regards to the attacking side at least. Everything I wrote yesterday once again was apparent – Electronic getting to secret or lower with relative ease, but the rest of the team not doing much of anything during that time. S1mple was laughing at one point on stream after a particularly bad round, and I imagine it must have been at just how little coordination his team was showing.

With the veto in the Faze/Vitality re-match I would prefer the French side moving to Mirage or Inferno for their choice. If they do pick Nuke again, one would assume they have adjusted for what went wrong in the series prior. However accounting for only the one gun round they won, their might be too much to work on against a team that has had Nuke in their rotation for awhile now.

The winner of Faze and Vitality will go on to play Complexity in the grand finals about 30-60 minutes after it concludes. You can believe two narratives in this scenario – Faze/Vitality already warmed up/have momentum/revenge factor (Faze), or Complexity can anti-strat/isn’t fatigued. Take your pick! Both Faze and Vitality will undoubtedly be a marginal favorite, which is a bit rare for the team coming from the lower-bracket.

This Mibr price is all over the place this morning. I have seen it from -115 all the way down to -150 for hours at a time. We witnessed how little there was separating these teams in the prior series on Friday and can likely expect more of the same. While the Brazilians won at +100, I think it was a series both teams could have improved significantly in their opponent’s map pick.

  • Vitality ml v Faze @ +100 [2%] at BetOnline
  • Mibr ml v Evil Geniuses @ -120 [1.5%]

PLEASE READ:

Always risking 1u, never ‘to win’ 1u. If I expose two, that still remains risking 2u, not betting 2.5 to win 1 simply because the price is shorter than what I have. A standard stake here is 1u = 1% of your bankroll. This will keep you in the game instead of busting out every other day because you decided to be stupid and put your entire bankroll down on 8 wagers. If you have worse prices you don’t bet more to compensate. Please do not attach my plays in parlays, you are costing yourself extra money trying to cut corners. If your local only provides moneylines do not tail until you find a sportsbook for adults.

MATCH BETS – June 20

The past week has had a silly amount of teams not converting their own map pick, and instead trading. Navi/G2 fell into this trend. I’m not sure if the French crew is even certain of the order of their map pool at the moment. That is the second consecutive impressive Train performance we have seen from them though. It was not a 12-3 where they won the second pistol and could limp across the finish line. They had legitimate strats and had to grind that victory out when it seemed that Navi was coming back into it.

On Nuke, the CIS team treated us to a little drama after a dominant opening half. Remember that agonizing T-side of Mirage I mentioned when they faced Complexity? For most of the second half of Nuke, this is what they once more showed. Moses repeatedly questioned why they were not capitalizing on Electronic‘s advanced positioning lower in so many rounds. When you have control over secret constantly there are two ways to play it – go lower, or simply give the illusion that you are lower. Either would work because in many rounds G2 was reacting by simply putting two lower without knowing if they were being attacked there. Why it was working is Navi’s players were not hitting A together even though there was often just two there and had too many lanes of attack to watch. Navi won two buys with just pistols not because they ran a complicated strat, but because they played together. It is such an obvious point that teams at this level should do it naturally.

It seemed like Vitality made some adjustments on their CT side of Mirage! Where did the team who got trucked on this map by Heroic and Nip over the past week go? This is the second time in the past month I have backed the Ninjas when they decided not to ban Dust2, which is a common feature of their veto. While they undoubtedly played it better than the last time, they were not as crisp as we have seen them on say Overpass or Mirage over the past few weeks. However, it does hold promise.

In the NA region EG held a commanding lead on their opener of Inferno. The Brazilians chose to start T-side but were up against a wall the whole half. Any place they went to on the map was met with high powered CT’s unworried about taking any fight. Thankfully on Train I witnessed one of the best T-sides I’ve seen on that map so far in June. You might recall that MIBR lost the Flashpoint finals in an embarrassing fashion on this very map by only attaining one round after their own 12-3 half. While I would not say Train is one EG’s best, they are definitely capable of posting strong CT numbers at the very least. MIBR had excellent utility usage, worked together to hit sites, instead of over-complicating things by attempting elaborate fakes, lurks, or rotations, and it certainly helped that their stars were on point.

-Faze -2.5 v Complexity @ -110
-Faze -2.5 v Complexity @ -120
-Faze -2.5 v Complexity @ -110
-Vitality ml v Natus Vincere @ +100
-Evil Geniuses ml v Furia @ +150 [BetOnline]

MATCH BETS – June 19

Natus Vincere took a page out of the Liquid strat book on Dust2…a blank page. This is not about winning your own pick or being the better team. It is about execution on a map you should have a significant edge in depth of strategy and superior mid round calling. Moving to Mirage what happened to the confident pack that played this map two days earlier? Moses mentioned it about halfway through the opening half – they were moving painfully slow in areas of the map that were pretty much given to them. This left them with only 20 seconds in too many rounds.

I expected Vitality to go Inferno or Mirage against Faze. Neither are poor maps for the mix, however I certainly did not expect a Mirage ban from Vitality. Why float Overpass? Four rounds on the T-side of Nuke, three of which came off the pistol, is poor. Feel like a broken record with the amount of times I’ve been seeing this from the teams I’ve backed this week but it’s just the way its broken. Dust2 was the expected pick for Faze and they performed excellent on both sides.

We once more had the map veto showing up with Vertigo, Nuke, and Mirage in the Liquid against Furia series. A couple of great calls on CT-side of the first map with stacking the right site and the early aggression seemed to be the difference there. On Nuke, Liquid were crisp and efficient on both sides of the server and the series deserved to be at 1-1. Liquid left far too many rounds off the board on the decider, Mirage. They led the opening kill department 13-11 yet only achieved eight rounds. This boosted an okay looking T-side for the Brazilians into unrecoverable territory for Liquid.

We are down to our final six teams at Blast Premier with six matches to go. Faze and Complexity wait in the upper-bracket final for their duel tomorrow to decide the first finalist. As expected we have a few rematches on deck today. All three match-ups we have seen in the last month or even this week. Additionally, the coin flip line is understandable given the closeness of prior series and likely what we will see today. However, I hold Navi, Nip, and Mibr being marginally favored instead of where they currently stand!

-Navi ml v G2 @ +100 [1.5%]
-Nip ml v Vitality @ -105 [Heritage]
-Mibr ml v EG @ +100 [2%]

MATCH BETS – June 18

G2 finally had a good, and dominant, looking T-side of Dust2. The difference being that they collapsed upon both sites with excellent coordination. What a drastic difference it was from their Mirage T-side which was slow, predictable and uncoordinated. Ence was not making that many mistakes over the three map series other than their anemic performance on Train. They may have been a hole after their CT-side of Dust, but they were not making many errors. Perhaps could have been a little more aggressive in a few of the rounds to get information, however it is a difficult map to do so. Additionally G2 was doing an excellent job varying up their strategies and watching for pushes in all areas, then reacting to the information.

Moving to the OG/NIP series…yikes. While I did not have high expectations if the Ninjas did go to Overpass, the way OG lost many of these rounds was really poor. The European mix seems to be getting worse as time goes along. On Mirage they looked a bit better into some of the rounds but complete sloppiness beginning with the pistol round resulted in an 8-0 deficit. Too many rounds with man-advantages, or the site, where the bomb was not getting planted and the players did not take jungle, connector, or CT spawn.

The final series saw a very exciting Nuke, despite the scoreline, after that it was only EG running over Liquid. What happened to TL’s map pool? 7-8 and 6-9 T-sides don’t look that poor, but when you consider they had 3-0 and 5-0 starts respectively it is actually awful. Especially factoring in that this is Dust2 and Inferno. Yes, props undoubtedly to Evil Geniuses, but it was not even a contest in 75% of those final two maps. EG certainly could have attained a few more rounds on their T-side of Nuke which could possibly have given them the 2-0.

-Natus Vincere -2.5 v Complexity @ -125
-Natus Vincere -2.5 v Complexity @ -125
-Natus Vincere -2.5 v Complexity @ -125
-Vitality ml v Faze @ -105 [BetOnline] 1.5%
-Furia ml v Liquid @ -145 1.5%

MATCH BETS – June 17

The shining moment in today’s Ninjas/Navi opening map was the commentators remarking on just how splendid the Swedes T-side was running… blah, blah, blah. It was 8-3 and the only rounds Natus Vincere had won were from the pistol and conversion. Well then in typical mush fashion, which I am sure all degens are used to, the game reversed fortune. Navi won a partial buy followed by three consecutive rounds to bring this ‘phenomenal, perfect and dominant T-side’ to an 8-7 score. Not so remarkable. However they thankfully won the second pistol built themselves once more up to an 11-7 lead, to give us just enough hope they might win, and then? Nothing really. The CIS kings just ran away with the rest of the half. Both teams on their CT side were incredibly passive in mid. It takes a little courage to fight mid, but unless you have a perfect read, flank or superior numbers you cannot allow the T’s to just split either site so easily. I mentioned this last week in relation to Fnatic. There needs to be a certain level of aggression, not in every round, but certainly not in none of them. Moving to Nuke Navi was undoubtedly the better team there.

The second series went the distance with OG and Complexity not only trading maps, but performing pretty dominantly on the opponent’s map. The decider Nuke was hilarious in the way the CT’s set-up, the rounds played out, and the lopsided results in favor of the T-side. I daresay had Col not built such a lead and won both pistols they may have dropped the series.

In the North American side of things there was only the one match, a duel of the top two South American squads. I agreed with Launders, who chose Mibr to win, that Train would have been the better choice for Fallen and co. They did get the win against Furia in the bo1 on this map, however, they also should have been working on their own map pool since they had opportunities to exploit a relative anemic T-side that we have seen from Furia.

That said Art once more proved that he does not yet understand how predictable his aggression down banana is. It was painful at points watching him not clear very common angles with various rifles. Moving onto Vertigo, Furia played a bit better, but Mibr won both pistols and converted, as well as taking far too many 2v2/3v3 post plants. It is sort of like the tennis player who loses a close opening set due to unforced errors, then in the second play incredibly well but don’t convert their break points while the opponent converts every single one of theirs. The second set may end 6-2 but the actual split of points won (kills) is not so different. It does not mean that player deserved to win, only that they had more opportunities than the score suggested.

  • G2 ml v Ence @ -135 [2%]
  • OG +1.5 v Nip @ -160 [2%]
  • OG ml v Nip @ +180 [1.5%]
  • Liquid -2.5 v EG @ +100
  • Liquid -2.5 v EG @ -110
  • Liquid -2.5 v EG @ +100 [BetOnline]

MATCH BETS – June 16

We picked up the one win in the French derby with a 2-0 double-overtime heater. While it certainly is not something I factor, on face value (though if someone teaches me how I am all ears), G2 were their own worst enemy on Mirage. The old stereotype that French teams don’t know how to play this map was only partly demonstrated yesterday…one of them got there after all!

KennyS missing an easy awp shot in a 4v2 as the T’s crossed the site was highlighted but how many man-advantage situations did that team toss in the bin en route to a loss. To be honest I was surprised with the veto entirely – neither of these teams wants to go to Dust2, Nuke, Vertigo? Their map pools greatly overlap, sure. I imagine G2 saw the prior two Vitality performances on Mirage where they achieved a pitiful four CT rounds and thought ‘we’ll just do that’.

My two losses yesterday came from two 2-1 series. Lions and Ence made it competitive on three of the six halves played, however on the ones they didn’t it was plain ugly. The Danes held a 3-0 lead against the Ninjas on the CT side of Train before losing 11 of the next 12 rounds. Sure they assembled a respectable T half themselves but were outclassed beyond a recoverable point. Similar scenes in the Faze/Ence series. I thought Faze played an excellent veto in taking away Train from the Finns. While we did see two incredibly tight opening maps, Ence saw their 5-1 T-side of Nuke evaporate by losing 15 straight rounds on the decider.

Today we proceed with the next two matches of the Europe playoffs, but also begin the North American side with a Brazilian derby. The old kings of South America did pick up a win over Furia in that best-of-one I was on in the Blast group stage, however, this -2.5/-3.5 spread is something we have been riding through their best-of-threes. While we are getting closer to what I hold Furia’s h2h price to be against Mibr, still not there. Other than that charity event, we have not seen OG much at this level of the tournament for some time. Complexity meanwhile took over for Big in grinding out as many Home Sweet Home victories as they could over a six week period. It will be interesting to see which enters the server in a better form.

-Complexity ml v OG @ -160 [1.5%]
-Nip ml v Navi @ +135 [1.5%]
-Furia -3.5 v Mibr @ +105
-Furia -3.5 v Mibr @ +105
-Furia -3.5 v Mibr @ +125 [BetOnline]

MATCH BETS – June 15

Tomorrow we begin the final week of the Blast tournament. North America will start their playoffs Tuesday. The first match running is the play-in for the final spot between Ninjas in Pyjamas and Mad Lions. Given what we have seen from these two over the past month it is unsurprising to find the pricing so close. It still seems the Nip map pool is inconsistent, at least for their marginal favored status against Lions.

We get another French derby. In the previous meeting we were on G2, whom marginally squeaked out a victory there. Both Vitality and G2’s recent outings disappointed. A 1-0 map advantage and opening crushing performance on Vertigo putting them to 2-0 was not enough to close out the win, nor was a 11-2 lead on the final map. Was certainly one of those ‘you hate to see it’ matches if backing G2.

On the flip side Vitality finally lost to the Ninjas once more. The unfortunate part was their performance once more on CT-side Mirage and their sloppiness on Inferno. This team is too experienced and talented to allow those kinds of outcomes frequently, but we have now seen poor T-sides from them on Inferno against Nip twice while also two 11-4 holes on the defence of Mirage.

Our third match tomorrow is a meeting of another two squads with new players in 2020…see a pattern here? Faze and Ence both added new players in the past month and, for the most part, have performed well with Bymas and Jammpi. For those new to following the CS scene, this is basically par for the course. If every team switches a player in order to improve against the field, then the field itself actually improves and so no one team’s results should with much distinction…well, hypothetically.

-Mad Lions ml v Nip @ +100
-Vitality ml v G2 @ +100 [Bookmaker]
-Ence ml v Faze @ +100

MATCH BETS – June 7

We have our two semifinals matches in the Europe division today with Mad Lions facing Ence on one side of the bracket and Nip taking on Vitality. All four teams share a common element in that they have all undergone at least one roster swap in 2020.

Lions swapped out Hunden for Acilion shortly before their Flashpoint campaign started, however it did not stop them from winning their first title under their new IGL. Ence replaced Xseven with new young talent Jamppi. With the additional firepower they have only lost two matches so far, one against Nip and one against Vitality. In May the Ninjas replaced Lekro with Hampus. While it looked very rough at first, which is to be expected, they have improved measurably over the past week. Finally the French side of Vitality have had several months without their former IGL who decided to step down earlier this year. In his place Apex has been calling and it is encouraging that this team did not collapse given how much promise it holds.

I am on Mad Lions today because their rating has value as well as their performance over the short duration at Blast Pro Series. Additionally their map pool should be one of the very best in the region at the moment. Ence‘s best map is likely Dust2 which, if I was backing them, would want them to choose however ML are no slouches on it either. As long as Acilion has done some homework on where the Finns weakness lies beyond that (it isn’t Train), we should have a real shot on Ence’s pick and even greater likelihood on the other two.

-Mad Lions ml v Ence @ -140 [1.5%]
-Vitality ml v Nip @ -170 [BetOnline]
-Vitality -2.5 v Nip @ -125
-Vitality -2.5 v Nip @ -110
-Vitality -2.5 v Nip @ -110

For the third time in about a month we have Evil Geniuses facing GenG. The first two have both gone the way of Daps crew, yet the market prices Evil Geniuses as the favorite today. I haven’t got to that match yet, but will post it a little later this morning!

MATCH BETS – June 6

Mousesports opened the day with a 2-0 over Astralis, though it was far from a straightforward affair. For a moment there I thought we were gonna lose our Mouse wager in a similar manner as the 100 Thieves the night before – dominant 11-4 T-side on the more difficult side of the map, win the CT pistol, get broken on the conversion and proceed to toss your CT side in the bin. Well, thankfully we have overtimes once more. Mousesports were really struggling to find a setup on B that did not completely crumble each time the Danes attacked it.

When it reached overtime it looked to be more of the same. Astralis threw a half-assed fake towards A with 30 seconds left, Karrigan and Frozen (with the awp?) started to rotate from B and that’s when the sole defender inside the site died to allow the Danes a 1-0 advantage. Thankfully in round two ChrisJ was granted the second sniper rifle and it kind of made you wonder why they had not run this more often in regulation (money of course being part of the problem).

At 16-16 the hero of the prior round made a very common, but dangerous mistake, spamming aimlessly without gaining any info yourself. It offered the encrouching terrorists ChrisJ’s exact position. They simply walked up and put a bullet in his head. The ONLY reason Mouse was able to win this round was that Ropz traded by killing Snappi who was walking from long. He was then able to survive long enough that two T’s rotated off the bombsite to deal with his potential flank. This allowed the other three CT’s coming from the backside to flush out the two T’s on site and then have a 3v2 to defuse the bomb.

Although the Danes lost the map, they finally did play one really good half against a quality opponent – something we had not seen against either Vitality, Nip, or Ence (kind of, though the score was close in the end there). The caveat here is that Mousesports have not been known as a good Overpass team at all recently. When we moved to Train we saw the true issues with Astralis team play at the moment. They attained only 5 rounds on the CT-side before looking terribly out of place on a swift T-side.

Was a bit unfortunate not to get at least one -3.5 cover in the GenG/Triumph series. Daps and co held 15-11 leads on both of the first two maps. The retakes on Inferno were absolutely amazing during that CT comeback. After 13-6 Triumph did not close a single gun round, only squeezing out a pistol B rush where they won a 2v4.

Europe
-Mousesports ml v Ence @ -125 [1.5%]
-Vitality ml v Fnatic @ +100 [2%]
North America
-GenG +1.5 v Furia @ -200 [2%]
-GenG ml v Furia @ +160 [1.5%]
-Mibr ml v Evil Geniuses @ +120 [1.5%]

Rare for me to have greater exposure on each trade, but my percentages warrant it. Reminder that this doesn’t mean it will hit, but that it ‘should’ hit with more regularity than the line.

MATCH BETS – June 5

Well the unfortunate news is we come out of the group stage with a little under a two unit deficit. The positive is that the group stage best-of-ones featuring ‘draws’ is concluded. Hopefully you don’t all share my animosity towards them, though misery loves company! I am not sure if I was more disappointed in 100 Thieves performance tonight or Mousesports earlier in the day. Mouse did just enough to bust three wagers and push on another, but not in the order I needed them to.

I couldn’t be asked to look over the data and calculate how rare the 12-4 comeback on the T-side of Nuke is. Let’s just say you won’t see it very often. The North American groups have been a bit of a roller coaster in that respect. A ton of comebacks, more ties than their should be…well, it’s all in the rear-view mirror now!

Grudges against particular teams is not a very becoming quality in sports betting, so all is forgotten in respect to Mousesports as they head to face Astralis in their playoff meeting tomorrow. The Danes map pool has looked even shakier than Karrigan’s group not knowing how to play Inferno nor Overpass. While a shorter price against Astralis is not something I recommend backing to frequently, this is not truly ‘Astralis’ as we have known them for the better part of the last two years. If we remove that pedestal, the Mouse number does indeed hold value. Cross our fingers that ChrisJ has one of his better days!

I did flirt briefly with the idea of taking Vitality on the map spreads, but opted to take their series 2-0 instead. While their performance against Saw was uninspired and rather embarrassing to watch transpire, it was not enough to knock me off their side given their overall improving numbers.

Europe
-Mousesports ml v Astralis @ -150 [1.5%]
-Mousesports -2.5 v Astralis @ +100
-Mousesports -2.5 v Astralis @ +100
-Mousesports -2.5 v Astralis @ +100
-Vitality -1.5 v Dignitas @ +100 [BetOnline]

North America
-GenG -3.5 v Triumph @ -110
-GenG -3.5 v Triumph @ -110
-GenG -3.5 v Triumph @ -110
-Mibr ml v Cloud9 @ -115 [2%]

MATCH BETS – June 4

The Portuguese team, Saw, were finally able to get a cover and nearly a victory! They held a four or five round lead late in the game but some rookie mistakes from their players, combined with the superior talent on Ence, found them losing six successive rounds to drop the map entirely. Since the addition of Jammpi, Ence seems a bit all over the map with their performances. I know the kid is performing well, just a comment on their team play overall (even when he’s dead in the server).

A very improved CT-side from Dignitas on Vertigo facing Virtus Pro. It was good to see the old dogs get a win here though at the expense of one unit. I had to laugh when I saw their map statistics today of their three most played maps, only Nuke holds a positive rating. BUT, guess which map they have a singular loss on – Vertigo! Other than Nuke it is the only other map they hold a positive pistol win rate and round win rate on both sides of the map. GO PLAY VERTIGO NIP!

…I mean Dig. Old habits.

The next two series had teams priced very close going the distance. I thought the teams I backed were the better ones overall (go figure). Yet Nip needed to win two of the last three to force the draw, while Fnatic took three straight to win by the slimmest of margins…and this was after an 8-0 lead on the T-side.

Vitality dissected Astralis on Nuke. I mentioned in another article posted today that this was the one map that the Danes failed to win at least 50% of their matches on in May. So with that in mind was a bit surprised they took the veto there, but it likely comes down to which ones they have been able to put into practice with their current roster.

Moving to the Americas Evil Geniuses handed Cloud9 another loss. However you would not have expected that at half-time headed into C9’s better side, especially with a 9 round lead! The way that one played out was certainly rare.

I called it rare, and then shortly after witnessed two more 12-3 comebacks in which the team-leading did not win a single one! Tonight was the day of sloppy, mistake-ridden T-sides from all six teams.

Europe

  • Ence ml v Astralis @ -130 [1.5%]
  • Ence -2.5 v Astralis @ +110
  • Mad Lions ml v Mousesports @ -110 [BetOnline]
  • Mad Lions -2.5 v Mousesports @ +130
  • Vitality -5.5 v Saw @ -110
  • Fnatic -2.5 v Dignitas @ -125
  • Mousesports -3.5 v Virtus Pro @ +100
  • Mousesports ml v Virtus Pro @ -200 [2%]

Americas

  • Furia -3.5 v Chaos @ -110 [1.5%]
  • Triumph +4.5 v Evil Geniuses @ -125
  • 100 Thieves ml v Cloud9 @ -135 [1.5%]

MATCH BETS – June 3

Fnatic faced Virtus Pro on Train to open up day two. A bit surprised we ended on that map which I had pegged as the third most likely to come up behind either Inferno or Mirage. Most precisely with Yekindar now playing as well. Later we saw Mad Lions run against Virtus Pro on Overpass. With both scores being so one-sided it is difficult to get a significant sample for VP’s preparation for these maps. Only conclusion is that they did not appear up to snuff on either but again this is against other top teams.

The Lions demolished both Dig and VP which is what you would kind of hope for given the pieces they have and where those other teams have existed through most of 2020. I was very impressed with the calling on Overpass being as decisive as it was, but also patient at the right times (waiting for smokes to clear and their own nades to be used, clearing angles in unison).

Things started out alright for Saw against Nip, but their economy was never established and it allowed Nip to eventually win out the first half. Moving to the other side, it was clear almost immediately that this team was not ready for the attack nearly to the same degree. Nip’s aggression just foiled every single round before Saw even got to a bomb site.

Triumph were the upset of the day walking away once more with a tight victory over Cloud9. If you missed Maniac’s analysis of one round it epitomized the problems on this map for C9. It is critical that teams know how to play both sides of a map and not just expect that on CT-side the opponent will just make enough mistakes to get you through to the finish. On a map like Dust teams need to be proactive on the defense to get opening picks or at the very least some information. Early on we saw C9 going for saves in 3v3 situations instead of attempting retakes on A. That is a very bizarre call.

So though the score looked close, on the CT-side C9 only managed to win the pistol, a forcebuy where oSee hit some incredible scout shots, and a singular gun round when Triumph was on 15-12.

Both Brazilian series went to Inferno which they had played against one another yesterday. I would say these two days of results on this map are a good example of the variance you can see within a small sample of the same teams. Furia and Mibr both exercised a pack mentality on their T-side. It has its strengths on Inferno where the rotations can take a long time. This is why Art plays so aggressively when he is holding a banana. If there are no T’s there it allows them to play four A, or a fast rotate. I don’t think we had a good taste of GenG’s ct side on it, though we did see them struggle at Flashpoint on this side of the map as well against teams with far less firepower.

Attached to the tweet below was a 2% wager on GenG and a half unit more to Evil Geniuses. Only additional play from the card is for the Fnatic/Mousesports series:

MATCH BETS – June 2

Blast Pro Premier began in a similar fashion to what many will remember from their prior tournaments – a tie! Ence faced Vitality to open up the tournament on Dust2. We saw a much-improved T-side from the Finns this time around. In their meeting last week, Ence lost Dust2 16-9 where three of their five T-rounds came from the pistol conversion. In today’s meeting Ence were down 10-6 after losing their T pistol, and yet still managed to post nine rounds from the attacking side. Sign of good things to come?

Dignitas met Mousesports on Train in the next match. Some of the Swedes old problems with firepower resurfaced as they were run over on the favored side. What am I referring to? In our CSGO Flashpoint pieces, I made mention of the Dig subpar numbers most noticeably on the favored side of some known maps, Train was one. Dig held the lowest round win percentage on CT-side at Flashpoint, and the lowest 5v4 conversion percentage.

Train seemed to be the flavor of the day for Astralis – they played it twice more in their two series against the Ninjas and Saw. Their opening match started ugly has Nip went straight to a 7-0 lead before a nice recovery due to some fantastic entries from Dupreeh allowed them to widdle the CT bank down to a 9-6 half. However losing the second pistol and first gun round in the second half closed this map out quickly.

So how then were the Danes able to defeat Saw so easily on the same map? The caliber of talent, both pistols to their favor this time, and winning a number of rounds they shouldn’t. Despite the scoreline in favor of Astralis looking more dominant, Nip’s performance was crisper than the Danes vindication later against the Portuguese.

Things started alright for the Swedes opening up a 4-0 lead off the T-pistol and first gun round. In fact they were able to string together a decent half when it looked like they had binned it for good. They moved into their CT-side with an 8-7 lead which is respectable on Mirage. However the brilliant Lions coordination that brought them success at Flashpoint resurfaced and they crushed the Swedes in a swift six-round victory.

Moving to the Americas region, Made in Brazil finally found success over their Furia brothers. You would have to go back to March to find Mibr taking a map off them, but guess which one it was – Inferno. Given Fallen is still breaking in TRK, I would have liked to see Furia bring it to Overpass, however, it is was their own sloppiness as well as losing several 1v1 clutches which caused the upset.

Europe

  • Mad Lions -2.5 v Dignitas @ -135 [2%]
  • Mad Lions -3.5 v Dignitas @ +100 [BetOnline]
  • Mad Lions -2.5 v Virtus Pro @ -120 [Heritage]
  • Saw +5.5 v Nip @ -120
  • Saw ml v Nip @ +300
  • Fnatic ml v Virtus Pro @ -160 [2%]

Americas

  • Triumph +4.5 v Cloud9 @ -125
  • Triumph ml v Cloud9 @ +240
  • Chaos +3.5 v Mibr @ -110
  • Chaos ml v Mibr @ +210
  • GenG ml v Furia @ +130
  • GenG +2.5 v Furia @ -125
  • GenG -2.5 v Furia +180

MATCH BETS – June 1

So while we wait for the Dreamhack Masters playoffs to begin, the Blast Pro Series group has put together another little tourny. Every team competing, with one exception, has attended at least one of the online tournaments since sports were paused. The one team you may not have heard of is ‘Saw’. They are 60% comprised of the old Portuguese Giants roster. If you were following CS around this time last year, the Giants highest point of the circuit was at another BPS event, Madrid 2019.

Now I am not Portuguese, but it seems to me that there is a decent amount of rivalry with their Spanish neighbours. The Giants friends and fans loaded up a bus to travel down to Madrid for the last-chance play-ins with top Spanish club, Movistar Riders. In an epic series as 2:1 dogs the Giants defeated the home town club and qualified for the weekend’s main event. Their fans were wild and it carried over into the tougher matches ahead. Now they did finish in last place (sixth), but they had a victory over Ninjas in Pyjamas and two 16-14 losses to Cloud9 and Ence.

Going into this week’s event, I have no misconceptions that this team is capable of taking scalps. They open up their campaign against Astralis and a -4.5 spread on the world’s best kinda (couple new faces) at this number is the better shot…for now.

If Astralis does not put up numbers representative of their price, or that is what you’re expecting, it would be better to take their opponents on the moneyline. That’s where the value will be. They open up the first day of the schedule playing Ninjas in Pyjamas, who have had a couple tests now under Hampus, and then facing the Portuguese club.

Another thing to note with the Blast Pro Series is all the group stage matches are best-of-ones and there are no overtimes. This adds value to +2.5 and +3.5 spreads. In 2019 30% of the best-of-ones at BPS events ended either 15-15 or 16-14. To this point BPS events have featured five or six of the best teams in the world so it is somewhat expected. Another factor in the closeness of bo1’s generally is the map veto should allow for one even map. Think of it more like the decider in a best-of-three series.

Europe

  • Vitality ml v Ence @ -145 [1.5%]
  • Dignitas +3.5 v Mousesports @ -110
  • Dignitas ml v Mousesports @ +170
  • Astralis ml v Nip @ -150 [2%]
  • Astralis -2.5 v Nip @ -120 [Heritage]
  • Astralis -4.5 v Saw @ +100
  • Mad Lions +2.5 v Fnatic @ -125

Americas

  • Furia ml v Mibr @ -190 [2%]
  • Geng ml v Chaos @ -210 [2%]
  • Geng -3.5 v Chaos @ -110
  • 100 Thieves ml v Evil Geniuses @ -110 [Heritage]