British Open Expert Picks to Win 2024: Outright Predictions for Royal Troon

The final major of the 2024 golf season tees off tomorrow with a field of 158 hoping to join Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Bryson DeChambeau as this year's major winners. We're making our British Open expert picks based on the odds from our best golf betting sites.

Scheffler enters this week as the prohibitive betting favorite by the British Open odds, as he was for each of the first three majors of 2024. However, the fact he won only one of those tournaments is enough cause for pause when considering betting on the No. 1 golfer in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) this week at Royal Troon.

Henrik Stenson won The Open Championship the last time it was played at Royal Troon in 2016. He finished 72 holes at minus-20 to win by three strokes over Phil Mickelson, who finished 11 strokes clear of second runner-up J.B. Holmes.

British Open info

• When: Thursday, July 18 - Sunday, July 21
• Where: Royal Troon, South Ayrshire, Scotland
• How to watch: NBC, USA Network, Peacock
• Defending champion: Brian Harman
• Field: 158
• Cut: Top 70 and ties
• Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+550 via BetMGM)

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2024 British Open outright picks: Who'll win at Royal Troon?

Collin Morikawa (+1700)

Best odds: +1700 via bet365 | Implied probability: 5.56%

Morikawa just picked up his sixth top-10 finish of 2024 last week with a T-4 result in the Scottish Open. That was his third top-5 finish in his last five events, with a T-14 in the U.S. Open and a T-13 in the Travelers Championship.

The 2021 Champion Golfer of the Year enters the week at No. 6 in the OWGR and occupies that same position on this week's consensus oddsboard with all of the top-ranked golfers in attendance. 

Morikawa is second in this field among qualified golfers in driving accuracy since Jan 1, and he's among the leaders in strokes gained: tee-to-green per round (1.75). Those were both strengths of his last week, and he gained 1.02 strokes per round on the Scottish greens of The Renaissance Club.

A $10 bet would return a profit of $170 if Morikawa wins his second Open Championship this week.

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Tyrrell Hatton (+2800)

Best odds: +2800 via bet365 | Implied probability: 3.45%

Hatton finished one stroke back of Sergio Garcia and Abirban Lahiri in last week's high-scoring LIV Golf: Andalucia event in Spain. That came three weeks after he won in Nashville at minus-19 for his first victory on the LIV circuit.

The Englishman tied for ninth in the Masters after joining LIV in January. He then tied for 63rd in the PGA Championship but returned to contention in the U.S. Open before a disastrous Sunday round dropped him to T-26.

His irons and short game have been excellent in his qualifying rounds this year, and it's safe to expect better putting from him on these surfaces. He tied for fifth in the 2016 Open Championship at Royal Toon for one of the top finishes by any true contender in this week's field.

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Hideki Matsuyama (+5500)

Best odds: +5500 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 1.79%

I would've liked to see Matsuyama fare better than his missed cut last week in the Scottish Open, but that at least helped boost his odds heading into the final major of the year.

The former Masters champion has one win (Genesis Invitational) and four other top-10 finishes this year, including a T-6 in the U.S. Open. He leads qualified golfers in this field with 0.81 strokes gained: around-the-green this year, and that's always a key statistic for the British Open. 

Matsuyama's odds to win his second major championship are as short as +4000, so be sure to place this bet with FanDuel for an extra $150 in profit on a winning $10 bet.

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Open Championship picks

• British Open odds
• British Open first-round leader picks
• British Open best bets
• British Open long-shot picks
• British Open expert picks
• British Open power rankings

Royal Troon course profile

• Par: 71
• Length: 7,385 yardsx
• Architect: Alister MacKenzie

Open Championship odds - July 17

(British Open odds from our best sports betting sites as of Wednesday at 9:10 a.m. ET | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds)

Past British Open winners

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