British Open First-Round Leader Odds & Picks 2024: Who'll Start Hot at Royal Troon?
We're less than a day away from the 2024 Open Championship with tee times at Royal Troon beginning at 6:35 a.m. local (Thursday at 1:35 a.m. ET).
Those on the West Coast (and some on the East Coast) of North America won't have to wait long after they wake up to see a hefty payout waiting for them by betting on the British Open first-round leader odds and my top picks.
Scottie Scheffler enters the tournament as the resounding consensus betting favorite, with outright British Open odds as low as +450. Those odds imply a probability of 18.18% that he claims his second major and seventh victory of the PGA Tour season.
Royal Troon last hosted The Open eight years ago. Phil Mickelson surged to a first round of 8-under par, 63 to lead by three. Henrik Stenson went on to win the tournament by three strokes.
Last year, Brian Harman sat one stroke off the lead Thursday night before winning by six.
2024 British Open first-round leader odds
| Name | Odds (Betway) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸 | +1400 | 6.67% |
| Rory McIlroy (NI) | +1800 | 5.26% |
| Xander Schauffele 🇺🇸 | +2200 | 4.35% |
| Ludvig Aberg 🇸🇪 | +2800 | 3.45% |
| Bryson DeChambeau 🇺🇸 | +2800 | 3.45% |
| Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸 | +2800 | 3.45% |
| Jon Rahm 🇪🇸 | +3300 | 2.94% |
| Tommy Fleetwood 🏴 | +3300 | 2.94% |
| Tyrrell Hatton 🏴 | +3300 | 2.94% |
| Viktor Hovland 🇳🇴 | +3300 | 2.94% |
Note: The first-round leader market is decided once everyone in the field has completed their first 18 holes. This may be Friday morning in the event of a weather or darkness delay.
Terms and conditions apply.
What to consider when betting on the first-round leader
Betting on the first-round leader of any golf tournament is far different than betting on the tournament winner or any prop market. It's especially different with the British Open.
Here are the factors I always consider with my first-round leader picks:
- Tee times
- Weather
- Course history
- Round 1 scoring average
- Recent form
- Key stats for the week
The first-round leader betting market is much more volatile than the 72-hole event. As such, odds for the tournament favorites are higher in this market, and the odds for the long shots are generally slightly shorter when betting on the 18-hole sample.
Early tee times are generally best to target for your picks. Courses are often at their softest and easiest, with no divots in the fairways or wear on the greens. But weather can significantly change that line of thought. Monitor the weather to be sure your desired golfers will be dodging the worst of the rain and wind, should any be in the forecast.
I also greatly reduce my timeframe when looking at recent performance entering Thursday's first round. With the Scottish Open played just last week and featuring many of this week's top contenders, study up on the results of that tournament, particularly the fourth and first rounds.
British Open first-round leader picks
Rory McIlroy (+1800)
McIlroy tied for fourth in his return to play at the Genesis Scottish Open last week after taking roughly a month off of competitive play following the U.S. Open. He was 5-under par in his first round to sit three stokes back of Justin Thomas for the 18-hole lead.
The first round has been consistently strong for McIlroy this year. He ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average at an average of 68.29 strokes per round through 14 tournaments. I like that he played (and played well) in Scotland last week and that he previously took plenty of time off of competitive golf.
McIlroy will tee off Thursday morning at 10:09 local. That projects to catch warmer temperatures but the strongest winds and highest probability of precipitation of the day. The Northern Irishman is generally immune to those conditions as one of the best drivers in any field, and he would stand to benefit from potentially softer greens if it rains enough.
He's offered around +800 in the tournament outright market, so we can get an extra $100 on a winning $10 bet via the 18-hole leader market.
Odds: +1800 via Betway | Implied probability: 5.26%
Alex Noren (+6600)
Noren, who's tied for sixth in Round 1 scoring average this season, tied for 10th last week after opening at 5-under par in Round 1. He also shot 5-under in Round 4 and relied on a strong putting stroke and great iron play all week.
Those are Noren's consistent strengths. The Swedish golfer tied for 46th in the 2016 Open Championship at Royal Troon and has two career top-10 finishes in the oldest major, with a T-23 last year.
All 10 of his professional golf wins were on the European Tour before making the full-time leap to the PGA Tour, with one of those being the 2016 Scottish Open. He'll be in the second group to tee off Thursday at 6:46 a.m. local.
Odds: +6600 via Betway | Implied probability: 1.49%
Nick Taylor (+12500)
Taylor is a respectable 38th on the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average this season, but I'm much more attracted to his play in Scotland last week.
The Canadian, who has two PGA Tour wins over the past two years and will participate in the Olympics in two weeks, ranked sixth in strokes gained: tee-to-green on Sunday of the Scottish Open and shot minus-1 over his final 18 holes despite losing an abhorrent 4.11 strokes on the greens that day.
I'll bet Taylor immediately following any down weak with his (almost) always-strong putter. He's around +40000 in the outright market this week, but this is just his second career appearance in The Open following a missed cut last year.
I prefer this bet, and will gladly accept the shorter odds.
Odds: +12500 via Betway | Implied probability: 0.79%
Open Championship picks
- British Open odds
- British Open first-round leader picks
- British Open best bets
- British Open long-shot picks
- British Open expert picks
- British Open power rankings
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