2024 British Open Long-Shot Picks: Sleepers to Win at Royal Troon
The search for this year's Brian Harman begins here.
The Open Championship has long been viewed as the most wide-open of the four men's golf majors. The weather in England, Ireland, or Scotland often helps to level the playing field with what always seems to be a steady drizzle, (at times) gale-force winds, and generally cooler temperatures than North American golfers are accustomed to playing in, at least at this time of year.
Harman withstood all of those tests to run away with a six-stroke victory and cash outright betting tickets with British Open odds as long as +12500 a year ago. That ticket returned a profit of $1,250 on a $10 bet. And Harman's far from alone as a long shot to win The Open.
I've made my British Open expert picks for the more conservative golf bettors, but now it's time to aim a little higher in the hopes we see another long shot become the Champion Golfer of the Year, this year at Royal Troon.
British Open long-shot picks
- Joaquin Niemann: +5500 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $550)
- Sungjae Im: +6000 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $600)
- Keegan Bradley: +22500 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $2,250)
Best sleeper bets to win The Open
Joaquin Niemann (+5500)
Best odds: +5500 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 1.79%
Remember earlier this year when Niemann won two of the first three events on the LIV Golf schedule, and then the powers to be at Augusta National Golf Course felt the pressure to extend the then-24-year-old Chilean a special invitation?
Well, Niemann tied for 22nd in the Masters after closing among the betting favorites at around +2500. He then tied for 39th in the PGA Championship and wasn't eligible to play in the U.S. Open. He hasn't won on the LIV circuit since the first weekend of March, but we're now receiving much nicer +5500 odds, which are much more representative of his pedestrian resume in major championships to date.
This is the market-best price on Niemann, who's coming off back-to-back top-six finishes in 54-hole events. Bettors need to avoid the outlier +4500 odds from Caesars, which would return $100 less in profit on a winning $10 bet.
Bonus bets will expire in 7 days. One new customer offer only. Additional terms and conditions apply.
Sungjae Im (+6000)
Best odds: +6000 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 1.64%
This price makes no sense to me whatsoever.
Im tied for fourth in last week's Genesis Scottish Open while averaging 1.53 strokes gained: tee-to-green per round and ranking among the leaders in most key stats. Those same stats will be important once again with the Open Championship staying in Scotland.
Like Niemann, Im's major resume does little to inspire confidence, but he tied for 20th in this event last year, his best showing in four appearances. The 24th-ranked golfer in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) has ogged a win on the Korean Tour this year to go with five top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour since mid-May.
Terms and conditions apply.
Keegan Bradley (+22500)
Best odds: +22500 via bet365 | Implied probability: 0.44%
I bet the recently named 2025 U.S. Ryder Cup captain in each of the first three majors of 2024, and I'm not ready to give up just yet. Though he finished between T-18 and T-32 in the first three majors this year, those were better results than his pre-tournament odds beyond +10000 suggested.
Bradley missed the cut in each of the last four runnings of The Open, but he tied for T-18 at Royal Troon in 2016 and has an experience advantage over much of this field.
He's been excellent with his putter this year, and Bradley is gaining 0.87 strokes per round from tee to green while balancing distance and accuracy with his driver.
Deposit required. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Open Championship picks
- British Open odds
- British Open first-round leader picks
- British Open best bets
- British Open long-shot picks
- British Open expert picks
- British Open power rankings
Open Championship odds - July 17
(British Open odds from our best sports betting sites as of Wednesday at 9:10 a.m. ET | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds)
| Golfer | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸 | +500 | +450 | +500 | +450 | +550 🔥 |
| Rory McIlory (NI) | +900 | +850 | +800 | +800 | +900 |
| Xander Schauffele 🇺🇸 | +1200 | +1000 | +1200 | +1000 | +1300 🔥 |
| Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸 | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 | +1700 🔥 |
| Ludvig Aberg 🇸🇪 | +2000 🔥 | +1800 | +1600 | +1400 ❄️ | +1700 |
| Bryson DeChambeau 🇺🇸 | +2000 🔥 | +1800 | +1400 | +1400 | +1700 |
| Jon Rahm 🇪🇸 | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 | +2400 ❄️ |
| Tommy Fleetwood 🏴 | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 | +2000 ❄️ | +2200 |
| Tyrrell Hatton 🏴 | +2800 | +2800 | +2500 | +2500 | +2400 ❄️ |
| Viktor Hovland 🇳🇴 | +3000 ❄️ | +3500 | +3300 | +3500 | +3200 |
| Patrick Cantlay 🇺🇸 | +4000 | +4000 | +4500 | +3500 ❄️ | +4500 |
| Tiger Woods 🇺🇸 | +17000 ❄️ | +20000 | +20000 | +20000 | +30000 🔥 |
Past British Open winners
| Year | Name | Odds (as of Jan. 1) |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Brian Harman | +12500 |
| 2022 | Cameron Smith | +5000 |
| 2021 | Collin Morikawa | +4000 |
| 2020 | Canceled | NA |
| 2019 | Shane Lowry | +6000 |
| 2018 | Francesco Molinari | +6000 |
| 2017 | Jordan Spieth | +1200 |
| 2016 | Henrik Stenson | +3000 |
| 2015 | Zach Johnson | +8000 |
Recent long-shot winners
Odds were prior to Round 1 of the tournament.
- 2023: Brian Harman - +12500 (bet $10 to win $1,250)
- 2019: Shane Lowry - +6000 (bet $10 to win $600)
- 2015: Zach Johnson - +8000 (bet $10 to win $800)
- 2011: Darren Clarke - +15000 (bet $10 to win $1,500)
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook
Related Articles
