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Jones vs. Miocic Odds: Champ Heavily Favored in Potential Heavyweight Showdown

Kyle Smith

Last Updated: July 24, 2023 4:07 PM EDT • 2 min 35 sec read.

Jon Jones is heavily favored in our Jones vs. Miocic odds.
Jon Jones reacts to his win in the UFC heavyweight championship fight during the UFC 285 event at T-Mobile Arena on March 4. Chris Graythen/Getty Images/AFP

According to reports, Jon Jones, the newly crowned UFC heavyweight champion, is set to make his first title defense against former heavyweight kingpin Stipe Miocic. Here are the early Jones-Miocic odds from our best sports betting apps.

After an absence of over three years from the Octagon, Jon Jones' return marked a significant shift in the UFC's heavyweight division. At UFC 285, the former 205-pound champion made a powerful debut among the giants, quickly dispatching top contender Cyril Gane in just over two minutes with a guillotine choke, claiming the vacant championship.

Stipe Miocic, following back-to-back victories against Daniel Cormier in 2019 and 2020, lost his heavyweight title to Francis Ngannou at UFC 260 in March 2021. Since then, the "Fightin' Fireman" has not stepped foot in the Octagon.

With divisional powerhouse Ngannou no longer part of the organization, a clash between Jones and Miocic would determine the true second-best heavyweight on the planet. The matchup promises to be a defining moment in the division's landscape.

Here’s our breakdown of the Jones vs. Miocic odds (odds via FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Jones vs. Miocic odds

DraftKingsFanDuelPointsBet
Jones-375-400 ❄️-375
Miocic+285+285+290 🔥

If Jones’ complete and utter destruction of Gane has you convinced he’s the finest heavyweight in the UFC, your best bet is to snag him at -375 with DraftKings or PointsBet before the gap widens even further (which it likely will as the fight grows closer). Jones was once available with odds as high as -290.

An elite fighter with victories over the aforementioned Cormier and Ngannou, backing Miocic at +290 (PointsBet) isn’t the worst bet. He’s definitely a tougher style matchup for Jones than Gane, and likely shouldn’t be this big of an underdog.

Jones vs. Miocic moneyline

Jones (-375) vs. Miocic (+290)

Listed at -375, Jones is a massive favorite, with a 78.95% implied winning probability. This may or may not be recency bias. Prior to the Gane fight, a potentially ring-rusted Jones would likely still be the favorite against Miocic, but the odds wouldn’t be this lopsided. 

Jones’ decimation of Gane reminded bettors that he’s still an all-time great, and, with Miocic also sitting out for an extended period of time, it's not surprising that Jones is such a heavy favorite.

Jones vs. Miocic early pick

Jon Jones (-375) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Miocic undeniably holds a place among the best heavyweights in UFC history, while Jones is often regarded as the greatest mixed martial artist of all time. Although the champ didn't spend much time in the cage against Gane, the glimpse we saw of his skills at heavyweight was undeniably impressive and somewhat terrifying.

When compared stylistically, Miocic presents a more challenging test for Jones than Gane. He excels as a wrestler and grappler, proving himself as a more established and seasoned fighter than his French counterpart. Furthermore, Miocic is no slouch when it comes to striking, making him one of the most well-rounded heavyweights to have graced the UFC.

However, Jones is a whole different beast. Despite coming from the 205-pound division, he will be the larger and longer fighter in the heavyweight category. Judging by his performance at UFC 285, it is clear that his unique and dynamic skill set has effortlessly translated to his bulked-up frame. This makes Jones an incredibly formidable opponent in the heavyweight division.

Jones lands strikes at a higher percentage (57% to Miocic’s 53%), absorbs much less damage (2.22 strikes absorbed per minute compared to Miocic’s 3.82), and is a more successful wrestler (45% takedown accuracy to Stipe’s 34%). I expect the superior Jones to outwork, outstrike, and outgrapple Miocic en route to either a unanimous decision or a late-round stoppage. 

Here are our best sportsbooks:

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Written By:
Kyle Smith
A sportswriter for more than a decade, Kyle Smith was once voted “World’s 78th Greatest Lover” by ‘Relatively Attractive People Magazine’.* After covering nearly every sport under the sun for theScore, Smith settled in as head MMA writer where he helped shape the company’s coverage and establish its combat sports identity. Since then, he’s dipped his toes (cannonballed) into the world of betting, where he specializes in the UFC and NHL. Constantly chasing that gigantic Parlay Dragon, Smith was devastated when a Leon Edwards head kick completely obliterated a recent five-leg parlay. You can read his rantings and ravings on Twitter @Heldrificus. *Not a real publication.