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Jones vs. Miocic Odds: Champ Heavily Favored in Potential Heavyweight Showdown

Kyle Smith

March 9, 2023 9:15 AM EST • 3 min 19 sec read.

Jon Jones is heavily favored in our Jones vs. Miocic odds.
Jon Jones reacts to his win in the UFC heavyweight championship fight during the UFC 285 event at T-Mobile Arena on March 4. Chris Graythen/Getty Images/AFP

Newly minted UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones’ first title defense will reportedly come against former heavyweight kingpin Stipe Miocic. Here are the early UFC odds from our best sportsbooks.

After more than three years biding his time on the sidelines, Jones’ return to the Octagon signaled a seismic change for the UFC’s heavyweight division. The former 205-pound overlord made his debut amongst the giants at UFC 285, where he violently made quick work of top contender Cyril Gane, needing just a little more than two minutes to submit the towering Frenchman via guillotine choke to capture the vacant championship.

Following consecutive victories over Daniel Cormier in 2019 and 2020, Miocic dropped the heavyweight title to Francis Ngannou in the main event of UFC 260 back in March of 2021. The Fightin’ Fireman hasn’t graced the Octagon since.

With divisional boogeyman Ngannou gone from the organization, a matchup between Jones and Miocic would crown the true No. 2 heavyweight on the planet.

Here’s our breakdown of the Jones vs. Miocic odds (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Jones vs. Miocic odds

DraftKingsFanDuel
Jones-325-290
Miocic+270+235

If Jones’ complete and utter destruction of Gane has you convinced he’s the finest heavyweight in the UFC, your best bet is to snag him at -290 over with FanDuel before the gap widens (which it likely will as the fight grows closer).

An elite fighter with victories over the aforementioned Cormier and Ngannou, backing Miocic at +270 (DraftKings) isn’t the worst bet. He’s definitely a tougher style matchup for Jones than Gane, and likely shouldn’t be this big of an underdog.

Jones vs. Miocic moneyline

Jones (-290) vs. Miocic (+235)

Listed at -290, Jones is a massive favorite, with a 74.6% implied winning probability. This may or may not be recency bias. Prior to the Gane fight, a potentially ring-rusted Jones would likely still be the favorite against Miocic, but the odds wouldn’t be this lopsided. 

Jones’ decimation of Gane reminded bettors that he’s still an all-time great, and, with Miocic also sitting out for an extended period of time, it's not surprising that Jones is such a heavy favorite.

Jones vs. Miocic early pick

Jones (-290) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Miocic is one of the best heavyweights in UFC History. Jones might be the greatest mixed martial artist of all-time. The champ didn’t clock much cage time against Gane so it may be hard to glean a full report on his skills at heavyweight, but what we did see was terrifyingly impressive.

Stylistically, Miocic should serve as a sterner test for Jones than Gane. He’s a better wrestler, grappler, and is a more proven commodity than his French counterpart. Also, he’s no slouch on the feet, and is one of the most well-rounded heavyweights to ever ply their trade under the UFC umbrella. 

That said, Jones is a completely different animal. Despite coming from the 205-pound division, Jones will be the bigger, longer fighter, and based on his performance at UFC 285, his unique, dynamic skill set has translated seamlessly to his bulked-up frame. 

Jones lands strikes at a higher percentage (57% to Miocic’s 53%), absorbs much less damage (2.22 strikes absorbed per minute compared to Miocic’s 3.82), and is a more successful wrestler (45% takedown accuracy to Stipe’s 34%). I expect the superior Jones to outwork, outstrike, and outgrapple Miocic en route to either a unanimous decision or a late-round stoppage. 

Here are our best sportsbooks:

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Written By:
Kyle Smith
A sportswriter for more than a decade, Kyle Smith was once voted “World’s 78th Greatest Lover” by ‘Relatively Attractive People Magazine’.* After covering nearly every sport under the sun for theScore, Smith settled in as head MMA writer where he helped shape the company’s coverage and establish its combat sports identity. Since then, he’s dipped his toes (cannonballed) into the world of betting, where he specializes in the UFC and NHL. Constantly chasing that gigantic Parlay Dragon, Smith was devastated when a Leon Edwards head kick completely obliterated a recent five-leg parlay. You can read his rantings and ravings on Twitter @Heldrificus. *Not a real publication.