MLB MVP Odds 2023: Will Voters Give Arenado His Due?

Opening Day is right around the corner, and it’s the perfect chance to look at the MLB MVP odds and analyze the top favorites, contenders, and long shots to take home the hardware. Here’s Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker’s breakdown and top MLB picks for the MVP Awards based on the best MLB odds.

The immediate takeaway when assessing the MVP Awards odds lists is the American League presents considerably more value down the board because Los Angeles Angels superstar Shohei Ohtani is trading at an incredibly short price at MLB betting sites.

It’s a different story in the National League. San Diego Padres outfielder Juan Soto is the consensus favorite, but it's a far more balanced odds board.

My immediate betting approach is to enter the two markets cautiously with a focus on plucking value. I identified two proven MVP candidates, in addition to a true flier I believe is mispriced. 

Because the honors are awarded based on a vote by members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, I value the narrative angles more than I would in most betting markets. Simply put, MVP winners typically have more going in their favor than just leading their league in WAR or home runs.

Here are our best 2023 MLB MVP award picks, along with a look at some potential predictions; odds via our best sportsbooks). 

MLB 2023 American League MVP odds

MLB 2023 American League MVP odds as of Tuesday, March 28 at 9:45 a.m. ET.

MLB 2023 American League MVP odds analysis

FanDuel is the place to shop in this betting market. It has the best price on each of the top-four favorites to win the AL MVP Award.

Though bettors will find value in the long-shot range at other shops, it’s hard to argue with FanDuel presenting top value at the top.

MLB 2023 American League MVP odds movement

There’s been limited odds movement leading into Opening Day in this market. It’s noteworthy that DraftKings dropped betting-favorite Shohei Ohtani to a short +190 - the lowest number across our best sportsbooks.

Other small adjustments were made to the odds of Rafael Devers, Jose Ramirez, and Kyle Tucker. However, those line moves didn’t have an actionable betting impact on the outlook for any of the three players.

MLB 2023 American League MVP best bets

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1500 via FanDuel) - Feb. 16
• Eloy Jimenez (+10000 via BetMGM) - March 28

MLB 2023 American League MVP odds: Favorites

Shohei Ohtani (+220 via FanDuel)

If not for New York Yankees outfield Aaron Judge garnering headlines with 62 home runs, Ohtani would have won a second consecutive AL MVP Award last year. Even with Judge’s historic campaign, Ohtani still had a compelling case to take home the honors, and he’s the rightful betting favorite entering the 2023 season.

MLB 2023 American League MVP odds: Contenders

Yordan Alvarez (+1200 via FanDuel, Caesars, PointsBet)

Alvarez finished third in AL MVP voting last season, so at first glance, this is definitely a fair price. He had the highest wRC+ (196) in the league through the first half, but was limited to just 245 plate appearances after the All-Star Break because of various injuries, including a sore right hand, which probably explains his dip to just 11 home runs in the second half. All said, my concern is Alvarez’s overall upside to win this award is capped because I expect some voters to ding him for his poor defense and ample starts as a designated hitter.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1400 via Caesars)

It’s easy to forget that Guerrero will be turning only 24 ahead of Opening Day, and he enters his prime with 2,161 plate appearances already on his resume. There was a dose of statistical correction to the second-generation star last season, but with an improved supporting cast, I want him in my betting portfolio and expect Guerrero to be in the MVP conversation all summer.

Jose Ramirez (+1600 via BetMGM, Caesars)

The Cleveland Guardians third baseman has finished inside the top 10 in AL MVP voting in five of the last six years, and last season he played through a thumb injury that cut into his second-half production. Ramirez ranked second in WAR (4.4) and fifth in wRC+ (162) heading into the All-Star Break but dropped to 1.7 and 110 marks, respectively, across the final 70 games of the campaign.

MLB 2023 American League MVP odds: Long shots

Kyle Tucker (+3500 via PointsBet)

There’s a significant gap in odds for Tucker in this betting market, as he’s trading as low as +2000 through BetMGM. I view this number through PointsBet as considerably more accurate. Tucker is a well-rounded player and definitely a contender, but I think his name recognition carries more value than his on-field game. His 129 wRC+ and .808 OPS last season were also way down from his 145 and .916 marks, respectively, during the 2021 campaign.

Adley Rutschman (+3500 via FanDuel)

Though definitely more of a long shot than a contender to win the AL MVP Award, Rutschman did post the second-highest WAR (3.9) in the league following the All-Star Break last year. Additionally, he’s an elite defensive catcher, and the Baltimore Orioles are potentially a team on the rise. It’s also notable that he’s trading as low as +2500 in this market through DraftKings, BetMGM, and Caesars.

Bo Bichette (+5500 via FanDuel)

With DraftKings listing Bichette at just +3500 to win the AL MVP, there’s solid value in the number available through FanDuel. Bichette has garnered votes for the award in consecutive seasons, and he’s still just 25 years old. I’m specifically eyeing his improved second-half numbers from last season. He finished tied for fourth in WAR (3.1) and sixth in wRC+ (163). Just note, Bichette was trading as high as +7000 in early March.

Eloy Jimenez (+10000 via FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet)

The 26-year-old outfielder is already entering his fifth season in the majors, and he’s coming off an impressive second-half showing with the fifth-highest wRC+ (169) and OPS (.948) in the AL. Jimenez has flashed throughout his early career, but he’s also been slowed by injuries in each of the past two years. The Chicago White Sox are a bounce-back candidate following a disappointing 2022 campaign, and Jimenez has the potential to emerge as their best hitter.

MLB 2023 American League MVP odds: Fades

Aaron Judge (+700 via FanDuel)

I consider Judge’s odds in this betting market to be too short. It took him breaking the AL home run record to win his first MVP Award last season, and he has a lengthy injury track record. Plus, it’s proven incredibly difficult to win consecutive MVP Awards.

Mike Trout (+800 via FanDuel)

Costovertebral dysfunction, an uncommon and chronic back condition, limited Trout to 119 games in 2022 and it could cause additional absences again this season. It’s the lone dark cloud over his outlook to win the AL MVP Award because it was business as usual when the future Hall of Famer was in the lineup. Trout hit 40 homers and finished seventh in WAR (6.0) despite logging just 499 plate appearances. 

Julio Rodriguez (+900 via FanDuel)

The 2022 AL Rookie of the Year winner played injured during the second half and was limited to just 41 games following the All-Star Break. Still, he finished the season with 28 homers, 25 stolen bases, and the ninth-highest WAR (5.3) in the AL. Rodriguez has MVP talent, but I’m not convinced we see it translate statistically in Year 2. I also consider this a short price.

Rafael Devers (+3000 via FanDuel, BetMGM)

A midseason hamstring injury took a toll on Devers’ final stat line last year, as he was set for a career-best showing with a third-ranked wRC+ (170) and WAR (4.3) entering the All-Star Break. I don’t think the Boston Red Sox are going to be competitive enough to keep Devers among the MVP candidates this season. However, the flip side is that Devers takes his game to the next level and climbs the odds boards because he’s carrying the BoSox to a postseason berth.

Byron Buxton (+4000 via FanDuel)

If you think Buxton can approach 600 plate appearances for the first time in his career, then these odds are long enough to make him a sneaky addition to your betting portfolio. He’s coming off a career-high 28 home runs despite stepping up to the plate just 382 times and playing all but seven games of the season with knee tendinitis that ultimately resulted in season-ending surgery in September. I’m expecting the Minnesota Twins to be ultra conservative with their star again this season, and as a result, I don’t think Buxton will play enough to keep pace in the AL MVP race.

Corey Seager (+4500 via FanDuel)

FanDuel is offering the best price by a considerable margin to back Seager to win the AL MVP. He's listed as low as +2000 through DraftKings and PointsBet, for example. I just don’t see the appeal at +4500, though. Seager had his best season since his rookie year in 2022, and he didn’t receive a single MVP vote. Additionally, his 4.5 WAR and 117 wRC+ respectively ranked 12th and tied for 33rd in the league.

MLB 2023 National League MVP odds

MLB 2023 National League MVP odds as of Tuesday, March 28 at 10:30 a.m. ET.

MLB 2023 National League MVP odds analysis

Unlike the American League, there isn’t a short favorite in the NL MVP market. Additionally, there isn’t a single sportsbook offering the best odds on the majority of the betting favorites. Prospective bettors can find their edge by shopping for the best odds, and there are a number of players with a decent gap between their highest and lowest prices across our best sportsbooks. 

MLB 2023 National League MVP odds movement

Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Trea Turner saw his odds drop across four of our five best sportsbooks, and the prices in the NL MVP Award market shifted as a result. 

DraftKings did the best job for bettors by raising the odds of Mookie Betts, Paul Goldschmidt, and Austin Riley in accordance with Turner’s decrease in price. Caesars, on the other hand, also dropped the odds for Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr., Manny Machado, and Pete Alonso, along with Turner.

MLB 2023 National League MVP best bets

• Nolan Arenado (+2000 via FanDuel) - Feb. 16
• Oneil Cruz (+20000 via FanDuel) - Feb. 16

MLB 2023 National League MVP odds: Favorites

Mookie Betts (+950 via FanDuel)

The 2018 AL MVP has been in the running to earn the honor in the NL twice since being dealt to the Dodgers in 2020. He earned a second-place finish in his Dodgers debut and a fifth-place nod in 2022. Betts is also coming off a career-high 35 homers and sixth-place finish in the NL in WAR last season.

Ronald Acuna Jr. (+1000 via FanDuel, PointsBet)

I’m anticipating a career-best season from Acuna in 2023. His ACL tear in July 2021 is well behind him, and the Atlanta Braves will once again roll out a potent lineup with Acuna likely setting the table atop the order. I'm taking a wait-and-see approach here in hopes of landing a better price down the line.

MLB 2023 National League MVP odds: Contenders

Nolan Arenado (+1400 via DraftKings)

Arenado was third in MVP voting and second in WAR in the NL last season, and it was his sixth top-10 finish in the award through his 10-year career. There’s also a human element here, and in my opinion, Arenado’s track record of elite production at the dish and 10 consecutive Gold Glove Awards give him a head start with some voters over a number of the more unproven candidates. The long +2000 odds available earlier this offseason are gone, but I still consider the DraftKings offering a fair price.

Freddie Freeman (+1500 via DraftKings)

A perennial frontrunner in the NL MVP conversation, Freeman paced the league in runs, hits, and on-base percentage while also ranking second in wRC+ and tying for third in WAR. Durability has also been on the 33-year-old veteran’s side, as Freeman has only missed 10 games the past five seasons.

Manny Machado (+1500 via DraftKings)

Despite posting the highest strikeout percentage of his career, Machado was still able to pace the NL in WAR and finish runner-up in the MVP vote. He returns to the heart of an improved San Diego lineup and is set to have another strong season. My only worry is the soon-to-be 31-year-old veteran could be past his prime

Pete Alonso (+1600 via FanDuel)

Looking past the elite power and hitting in the heart of a productive lineup, Alonso checks a few more boxes entering the 2023 campaign. His strikeout rate dropped for a third consecutive season to fuel a career-best .271 batting average in 2022, and he’s also been incredibly durable throughout his four-year career playing 530 of a possible 546 games. Just note, his 4.0 WAR ranked 19th in the NL last year, which aligned with finishing eighth in MVP voting.

MLB 2023 National League MVP odds: Long shots

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+7000 via FanDuel)

A June injury cut Chisholm’s breakout season short last year. His 2.6 WAR at the time of his injury was tied for 10th in the NL, and he was on pace to top 30 home runs and stolen bases. Chisholm also showed improvement in his walk, strikeout, and hard-hit percentages to suggest there’s sustainability ahead of his third full season in the league. Of course, entering the MVP discussion will require him to stay healthy – something Chisholm hasn’t proven capable of doing.

J.T. Realmuto (+10000 via DraftKings, BetMGM)

Caesars had an outlier +15000 available for Realmuto in this market earlier in the offseason, but it's since cut the number all the way down to +7000. While the value window has closed, the backstop still posted the highest NL WAR (3.7) during the second half and finished seventh in the MVP vote.

Oneil Cruz (+10000 via FanDuel, PointsBet)

There isn’t a player on the planet who matches Cruz’s athleticism, and we’re still landing long odds here. In fact, DraftKings has him listed at +5000. Cruz shined down the stretch last season with an .884 OPS, seventh-highest WAR (1.2), and eight-highest wRC+ (147) in the NL through September and October.

MLB 2023 National League MVP odds: Fades

Juan Soto (+550 via DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM)

Everything points to a bounce-back campaign for Soto in his first full season with the San Diego Padres. The Friars have a loaded lineup, and while Soto’s numbers were down last year, the underlying statistics still showcase a generational talent at the dish. My only concern with securing a futures ticket this early is that Soto isn’t a lock to be the MVP of his own team, let alone the entire NL.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (+1400 via Caesars)

There are a number of hurdles for Tatis to overcome before entering the NL MVP conversation. First, he missed the entire 2022 campaign, and he is suspended through the first 20 games of this season. Add recovering from two offseason surgeries and an upcoming position change, and oddsmakers are giving Tatis a lot of credit. I expect there to be better odds available for Tatis in this market in the future.

Paul Goldschmidt (+1500 via DraftKings, FanDuel)

The reigning NL MVP won the award despite finishing third in WAR in the league, and he even trailed teammate Nolan Arenado in the statistic. Leading the NL in slugging percentage and OPS definitely padded Goldschmidt’s case, but there was also a bit of a legacy feel to the perennial MVP candidate finally claiming the honor during his 12th season. A peek at Goldy’s underlying metrics isn’t encouraging for a repeat performance, however.

Trea Turner (+1200 via Caesars, PointsBet)

There are a few factors weighing in with Turner entering the 2023 season. His numbers dipped last year, and he also signed with the Philadelphia Phillies during the offseason. I’m not convinced there is going to be a rebound statistically for the 30-year-old shortstop, either. Add his odds dropping, and the juice isn't worth the squueze in this market.

Austin Riley (+1600 via DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, PointsBet)

The 25-year-old has superstar power at the dish, and he’s finished sixth and seventh in the NL MVP vote the past two seasons. Even with Riley just entering his prime, I’m not ready to invest in him in this betting market yet. I expect we’ll see him trading at a better price in the future.

Matt Olson (+2500 via DraftKings, BetMGM)

Olson took a huge statistical hit during his first season in the National League, and while there’s definitely potential for a rebound from the 28-year-old first baseman, I think his odds are too low for this betting market. He didn’t receive an MVP vote last season, and there are two other Atlanta Braves with a shorter price he'll have to leapfrog.

Recent MLB MVP winners

Odds from SportsOddsHistory.com.

American League

National League

MLB MVP FAQs

Who won the MLB MVP Awards last year?

New York Yankees outfield Aaron Judge won the American League MVP Award, and St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt won the National League MVP Award.

When will the MLB MVP Awards be decided?

Though the date for the 2023 awards hasn't been determined, the winners of last year's MVP awards were announced on Nov. 17, 2022.

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