MLB MVP Odds & Favorites 2024: Judge, Ohtani Running Away From the Pack

Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani are so far ahead of the pack in their respective MVP races that most of our best MLB betting sites have begun offering "The Field" as an option.

We're nearing the end of July, and Shohei Ohtani is once again a runaway favorite to win MVP. He may have changed teams and leagues, but the result is the same. It's Ohtani vs. The Field.

Meanwhile, Aaron Judge is once again hitting home runs at a historic pace and leads the AL MVP race. However, he faces some stiff competition from Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr.

Will the front-runners relinquish their lead during the second half of the season, or will 2024 feature a pair of repeat MVPs?

Odds to win AL MVP 2024

AL MVP odds from our best sports betting apps as of July 21 | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds

AL MVP odds analysis

July 21, 2024: It's crazy to think that Judge opened the season in a slump. After slashing just .207/.340/.414 over the first 31 games of the campaign, he exploded during June, launching 11 homers in 25 games while slashing .409/.514/.864. And he's built up such a strong lead that his relative struggles in July haven't impacted the odds.

The former AL MVP has somehow been even better this season than he was when he took home the league's top honor two years ago. Judge is first in the AL in slugging (.679), OPS (1.112), home runs (34), RBIs (85), and total bases (233).

His odds are as short as -350 at our best sports betting sites, implying an 77.78% probability he'll win AL MVP. And the best price (-300) pays just a $3.33 profit on a $10 winning bet.

Meanwhile, Henderson just earned his first nod as an All-Star starter on the strength of his 28 home runs, good for second-most in the AL. And he's only narrowly behind Judge in WAR (6.4 to 6.2). Henderson enjoyed a red-hot June too while slashing .342/.432/.649, and that momentum has carried into July.

Odds to win NL MVP 2024

NL MVP odds from our best sports betting apps as of July 21 | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds

NL MVP odds analysis

July 21, 2024: Injuries have impacted the competitiveness of the NL MVP race. But one of the Dodgers' big three always seemed destined to take home the award. And it looks like it'll be Ohtani.

Prior to being hit by a pitch and fracturing his hand, Mookie Betts was on his way to winning his second MVP and first in the NL. But even before the injury, a slump to start June helped Ohtani catch up. And he's sprinting away with Betts sidelined.

Ohtani led the NL in slugging (.635), OPS (1.035), home runs (29), total bases (235), and WAR (5.3) at the All-Star break. He's also been mashing at another level since Betts went down, clubbing 12 homers in June alone. Much like the AL MVP race, it doesn't seem possible for anybody to catch Ohtani. And, unlike Judge, Ohtani hasn't hit a slump while slashing .319/.407/.638 in July.

With Bryce Harper, a two-time MVP, back from a hamstring injury, Ohtani will need to keep up his play. Harper was arguably the most dominant player in the NL during June. He hit seven homers while slashing .374/.452/.714 across 23 games, but his injury led to a temporary tumble down the oddsboard.

The NL race has mirrored the AL race, and the award seems to be nearly sealed up for Ohtani as long as he stays healthy. The shortest odds (-380) imply a 79.17% probability he wins it, with a $10 bet on the longest odds (-290) paying a $3.45 profit.

Past MLB MVP winners

Past AL MVP winners

Past NL MVP winners

How to bet on MLB MVP

First, choose a reputable sportsbook offering MLB MVP futures. Check the odds for various players. For instance, if Aaron Judge has +400 odds and Gunnar Henderson has +800, Judge is favored to win.

Place your bet by deciding how much to wager. If you bet $100 on Judge at +400 and he wins, you’ll get $500 back ($400 profit + $100 stake). Keep an eye on player performances throughout the season to see how your bet is shaping up.

Remember, future markets always see plenty of movement. It’s all about performance and perception. If a player performs exceptionally well or poorly, their odds will shift. Injuries to the player or their competitors can also significantly impact their MVP chances. The success of the player’s team can improve their odds as well.

Public betting trends play a role; if many people are betting on one player, sportsbooks might adjust the odds to balance their risk.

Expert analysis and predictions can also influence how people bet, which in turn affects the odds.

How to read MLB MVP odds

Odds are typically shown in a format like +400 or -150. Positive odds (e.g., +400) indicate how much profit you'd make on a $100 bet.

For example, a $100 bet at +400 odds would win you $400, plus your original $100 stake, totaling $500. Negative odds (e.g., -150) show how much you need to bet to win $100. So, a $150 bet at -150 odds would win you $100, plus your $150 stake, totaling $250.

These odds also reflect the implied probability of a player winning the MVP award. Lower odds (e.g., +200) suggest a higher likelihood of winning, while higher odds (e.g., +1000) indicate a lower likelihood.

For example, if Shohei Ohtani has +400 odds and Freddie Freeman has +800 odds, Ohtani is considered more likely to win. If you bet $100 on Ohtani and he wins, you'd get $500 back ($400 profit + $100 stake).

Sportsbooks adjust these odds based on factors like player performance, injuries, team success, and betting patterns. Understanding the odds helps you make informed betting decisions and assess potential returns.

MLB MVP FAQs

Who are the MLB MVP favorites?

Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop slugger Shohei Ohtani (-290) is the favorite in the National League, while Aaron Judge (-300) of the New York Yankees is the front-runner in the American League.

Who won the MLB MVP Awards last year?

Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher/designated hitter Shohei Ohtani won his second American League MVP award in the last three years.

In the National League, Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. won the award for the first time.

When will the MLB MVP Awards be decided?

Though the date for the 2024 awards hasn't been determined, the winners of the 2023 MVP awards were announced on Nov. 16, 2023.

Who has won the most MVP awards?

Barry Bonds' seven career MVP awards are the most in MLB history. No one else has won more than three, with 10 players tied at that number.

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