Phillies vs. Twins Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Field of Dreams Game (Aug. 13)
My Phillies vs. Twins prediction breaks down tonight's matchup between Aaron Nola and Taj Bradley in the MLB Field of Dreams Game.
The Phillies are looking to snap a two-game losing skid, while the Twins are on the American League playoff bubble. First pitch from Field of Dreams in Dyersville, Iowa, is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (Netflix). My MLB picks back the Twins as a -104 pick'em on an 8-cent line, although 60% of public bets are backing the Phillies.
ā¾ Phillies vs. Twins picks & odds today
| ā¾ Pick | šµ Units | š Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Twins ML (-104 via DraftKings) | 1.04u ā 1u | Twins have a better lineup (.245 BA), a better pitcher, and have won 2 of last 3 games. |
| Brooks Lee Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+112 via DraftKings) | 1u ā 1.12u | Lee has cashed over 1.5 H+R+RBIs in 4 straight starts for the Twins. |
| Byron Buxton Over 0.5 Home Runs (+290 via bet365) | 0.35u ā 1.01u | Buxton ranks 98th in barrel percentage (17.6) and 94th for xSLG (.510) in 2026. |
Total wagered: 2.39 units | Max profit: 3.13 units
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š° Phillies vs. Twins prediction & best bet
Twins ML (-104)
The Twins' lineup sits right above the league batting average (.245) in 2026, posting at least five runs in three straight games played. Taj Bradley has held opponents to five or fewer hits in three of his last four starts.
Aaron Nola has been atrocious for the Phillies this season. Nola ranks 15th in barrel percentage (10.0), 27th in hard-hit rate (41.5) and 15th in fastball velo (92.0), which is why he's in the 1st percentile for pitching run value.
Let's bet on the Twins to win this game as a pick'em on the moneyline at -104 odds on DraftKings.
📡 SBR Edge: Fade "NO"la
Aaron Nola has lost four of his last five starts for the Phillies. He's surrendered 9 home runs across this stretch and now faces a talented Twins lineup at the Field of Dreams.
š„ Best Phillies vs. Twins player prop bet
Brooks Lee Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+112)
Brooks Lee is possibly the hottest hitter in either lineup entering tonight's game. The Twins' 3B has recorded 2 hits in four straight starts, and now he'll face Nola, who is allowing a .246 BA and a 4.26 ERA.
Lee has also logged two runs and two RBIs during this recent four-game tear. He's disciplined at the plate, ranked in the 79th percentile for strikeout rate (16.1) and 70th at whiff rate (20.8), further building his case in this player prop market in a favorable matchup.
Stay on DraftKings to bet on Brooks Lee Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs at +112 odds.
š£ Phillies vs. Twins home run prediction
Byron Buxton to hit a home run (+290)
The Twins get a big boost in their lineup with the return of Byron Buxton. His power at the plate is unquestionable, ranked in the 98th percentile in barrel percentage (17.6) and 94th for xSLG (.510) in 2026.
Buxton cooled off before exiting on the 10-day I.L. Now, he's in a relatively small ballpark, while facing one of the league's worst pitchers in 2026, with Nola surrendering at least one home run in his last five starts.
There's little to dislike about Buxton's home run prop. He's well-rested and drawing a plus matchup against Nola.
Go to bet365 and place a wager on Byron Buxton's home run prop at +290 odds.
š Phillies vs. Twins same-game parlay
I'm going to double down on Brooks Lee and make him the first leg of a two-leg 1+ hits SGP. Brandon Marsh is a reliable hitter in the Phillies' lineup, logging a hit in three of his last four starts. Bet this SGP at +150 odds on FanDuel.
💵 Phillies vs. Twins SGP picks
- Brooks Lee Over 0.5 Hits (-178)
- Brandon Marsh Over 0.5 Hits (-166)
Best odds: +150 via DraftKings (1u -> 1.5u)
šµ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 31.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 40-85-3 | -21.84 units ā | -19.6% ā |
| Game picks | 14-15-2 | -3.03 units ā | -9.77% ā |
| Player props | 16-49-1 | -10.04 units ā | -22.3% ā |
| Parlays | 10-21 | -8.77 units ā | -32.4% ā |
š” How I'm betting Phillies vs. Twins: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I'm dropping 3.39 units on four bets for tonight's Field of Dreams Game. I've got 1.04 units to win 1 unit on the Twins, with a 1 unit play on Brooks Lee to log Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs.
Byron Buxton's home run prop at +290 odds warrants a 0.37 unit wager to win 1.01 units of profit. Then, I'm closing out with 1 more unit on a 1+ hits SGP featuring Brooks Lee and Brandon Marsh to win 1.50 units.
š Live Phillies vs. Twins odds
There's been a lot of line movement since the lines were released for this game. The Twins have moved from -122 to -104 odds, while the run total has dipped from 9.0 to 8.5.
60 percent of public action is on the Phillies' moneyline (-104) and 72 percent of bets are also on over 8.5 total runs.
š Phillies vs. Twins betting trends
| Phillies | Statistic | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| 64-58 | W-L record | 60-62 |
| 48-74 | Run line record | 68-54 |
| 53-61-8 | O/U record | 64-50-8 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 games | 4-6 |
| 4.20 | Team ERA | 4.60 |
| .237 | Team batting avg. | .245 |
| .706 | OPS | .725 |
š Phillies vs. Twins injuries
šŗ How to watch Phillies vs. Twins: MLB Field of Dreams Game
- Date: Thursday, Aug. 13
- First pitch: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Field of Dreams (Dyersville, Iowa)
- Streaming: Netflix
- Phillies starter: Aaron Nola (3-9, 5.47 ERA)
- Twins starter: Taj Bradley (9-4, 3.76 ERA)
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