UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill Prediction, Expert Pick & Odds
Alex Pereira will put his light heavyweight title on the line against Jamahal Hill in the main event of UFC 300 in Las Vegas on Saturday, and we have you covered with our Pereira vs. Hill prediction based on the odds from our best UFC betting sites.
UFC 300's main event features Alex Pereira defending his light heavyweight title against former champion Jamahal Hill at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nev., with early prelims kicking off at 6 p.m. ET and the main card commencing at 10 p.m. ET.
Pereira moved up to 205 pounds after dropping the middleweight strap to Israel Adesanya last year, rebounding with a decision over Jan Blachowicz before stopping Jiri Prochazka to become a two-division champ this past November.
Hill's stint as a belt holder was brief after claiming the light heavyweight championship by defeating Glover Teixeira in January 2023. But a ruptured Achilles tendon led to him vacating the title six months later. Despite his hiatus from the Octagon for over a year, Hill enters UFC 300 on a four-fight win streak, showcasing his prowess with seven knockouts in 12 professional victories.
We've been tracking the UFC 300 odds all week. Pereira opened as a -150 favorite and Hill as a +125 underdog, but the lines have moved closer as the UFC’s tricentennial event approaches.
To accompany our Gaethje vs. Holloway prediction and UFC 300 predictions, here is our best Pereira vs. Hill prediction for UFC 300 (odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Pereira vs. Hill prediction for UFC 300
Pereira to win ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -130 via DraftKings
Their measurables may be identical, but these two light heavyweights differ greatly in the striking department, as Pereira is a purebred, methodical kickboxer with a varied arsenal, while Hill relies primarily on his hands and almost exclusively targets his foes’ top half.
Dangerous as he is, Hill is prone to leaning back with his chin out to avoid strikes, a luxury only afforded to those who often enjoy an edge in height. As the superior technician with identical height and reach to Hill - who only defends 47% of significant strikes - Pereira will gleefully exploit that flaw after he’s made his reads in the opening stanza. Once he’s got a beat on Hill, Pereira should end Saturday’s milestone bill with his patented left hook or put the ex-champ away with a hellacious salvo against the fence to keep the light heavyweight crown in Brazil.
Given Pereira’s status as the slight favorite, the lines on Bruce Buffer bellowing “and still” offer respectable value, with DraftKings listing the reigning champ at a leading -130. The Brazilian has picked up seven KO/TKO wins across his nine career victories, and if you’re counting on him to make Hill brutally pay for his bad habits, you’ll find a tantalizing +120 on a Pereira win via strikes at both DraftKings and bet365.
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Pereira vs. Hill tale of the tape
| Alex Pereira | Jamahal Hill | |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | Age | 32 |
| 6'4" | Height | 6'4" |
| 204 lbs | Weight | 205 lbs |
| 79" | Reach | 79" |
| 9-2-0 | Record | 12-1-0, 1 NC |
Pereira vs. Hill moneyline odds
| Fighter | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pereira | -130 | -138 | -135 | -135 | -138 |
| Hill | +110 | +108 | +110 | +115 | +110 |
No matter which of these light heavyweights you choose, you’ll find solid value across all of our best sports betting sites, and betting lines have budged only slightly during fight week.
Those hoping Pereira will successfully defend the crown can bet on the favorite at -130 with DraftKings, with the line on the Brazilian hovering just below -140 at FanDuel and bet365.
For those pining for Hill to reclaim the throne, Caesars leads the pack at +115, while most of our other best sports betting apps line an upset for the challenger at a respectable +110. An eighth career KO/TKO for Hill is available with BetMGM at a tempting +200.
Pereira vs. Hill fight info
- When: Saturday, April 13
- Time: Early prelims at 6 p.m. ET; main card at 10 p.m. ET
- Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nev.
- How to watch: ESPN/ESPN+ (early prelims, prelims), Pay-per-view (main card)
Pereira-Hill pick made Friday at 12:04 a.m. ET.
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