Champions League Odds & Favorites 2024-25: Man City Sets Pace Ahead of Real Madrid After Matchday 2
Manchester City did as expected on Matchday 2, strolling to a 4-0 away win against Slovan Bratislava. Meanwhile, Real Madrid endured an uncharacteristic slip-up in France, losing 1-0 to Lille.
Bayern Munich suffered a similar fate in the Midlands, losing 1-0 to Aston Villa thanks to a rare Manuel Neuer misstep. Neither team's defeat severely impacted its 2024-25 UEFA Champions League odds, with Bayern's odds moving from +900 to +1000 and Real's lengthening from +300 to +350.
The Citizens remain the favorites at our best soccer betting sites at the end of Matchday 2.
Arsenal beat PSG 2-0 at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday despite being outshot and out-possessed. Other favorites Inter Milan, Barcelona, Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen, Liverpool, and Juventus also took care of business.
Champions League odds 2024-25
(Champions League odds from BetMGM, one of our best sports betting sites)
| Team | BetMGM | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man City | +300 | 25 | $30 |
| Real Madrid | +350 | 22.22% | $35 |
| Arsenal | +700 | 12.5% | $70 |
| Bayern Munich | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Liverpool | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Barcelona | +1200 | 7.69% | $120 |
| Inter Milan | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Dortmund | +2800 | 3.45% | $280 |
| Atletico Madrid | +2800 | 3.45% | $280 |
| PSG | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
Here are the latest notes through the conclusion of Matchday 2:
- PSG's odds (+3300) lengthened from +2200 after their defeat against Arsenal
- Borussia Dortmund's odds shortened significantly on Oct. 2, moving from +3300 to +2200 after their 7-1 trouncing of Celtic. However, their odds lengthened on Oct. 3, moving to +2800.
- Five of Tuesday's nine matches were blowouts, with a margin of victory of at least four goals
- Only two of Wednesday's nine matches featured margins of three-plus goals
- Inter Milan and Bayer Leverkusen's odds shortened even more Wednesday, moving from +2000 to +1600
Champions League favorite 2024-25
Man City (+300)
One season removed from their first Champions League trophy, Manchester City began their 2024-25 campaign with a 0-0 home draw against Inter Milan.
However, the juggernauts were back at their best on Matchday 2, making light work of Slovan Bratislava. The 4-0 away result was never in doubt, as four different goalscorers put the 2023 champions back on track.
Nobody in the Man City camp will get too excited about beating a side that lost 5-1 to Celtic last week and is appearing in their first Champions League competition since 1992-93.
While the competition was palpably inferior, City will take the confidence booster going into the Oct. 23 home match against Sparta Prague.
That should be another lopsided victory for the Citizens, who look to distance themselves from every team except Real Madrid atop the odds leaderboard.
Best odds: +320 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 23.81%
My Champions League team to watch
Bayern Munich (+1000)
Sure, Bayern Munich's display in the Midlands instilled about as much confidence as Dinamo Zagreb's defense when they conceded nine goals against the Bavarians on Matchday 1.
Sufficed it to say, the 1-0 defeat to a middling Aston Villa side won't go down well in Munich. However, Bayern's loss barely impacted their Champions League odds.
And Munich isn't alone in their stumbling, with Real Madrid, PSG, and Barcelona among the other favorites to show some early-tournament yips.
Don't let Bayern's loss against Aston Villa deter you. They will be in the mix when the knockout stages arrive in mid-February.
And then it will come down to which team is better on the day, and I like the chances of Bayern's big-name players showing up when it matters most.
Hopefully, Bayern's odds will lengthen before they play their next match against fellow European giants Barcelona in Spain on Oct. 23. Then Bayern backers can get more value for their futures pick.
Best odds: +1000 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 9.09%
2024-25 UCL format changes
The group stage features a major change for the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League. We are now treated to a single 36-team league stage, during which each side faces eight different teams (four at home, four away).
The top eight overall advance directly to the Round of 16. Then, teams finishing from ninth to 24th will meet in the knockout-round playoffs, from which eight more teams will emerge. Once those 16 are set, it becomes a straight knockout like we've seen in previous years.
2024-25 schedule and key dates
Stage matches
- Matchday 1: Sept. 17–19 ✅
- Matchday 2: Oct. 1-2 ✅
- Matchday 3: Oct. 22-23
- Matchday 4: Nov. 5-6
- Matchday 5: Nov. 26-27
- Matchday 6: Dec. 10-11
- Matchday 7: Jan. 21-22, 2025
- Matchday 8: Jan. 29, 2025
Knockout stage
- Knockout-round play-offs: Feb. 11-12 & 18-19, 2025
- Round of 16: March 4-5 & 11-12, 2025
- Quarter-finals: April 8-9 & 15-16, 2025
- Semi-finals: April 29-30 & May 6-7, 2025
- Final: May 31, 2025
Qualifying rounds
- First qualifying round: July 9-10 & 16-17 ✅
- Second qualifying round: July 23-24 & 30-31 ✅
- Third qualifying round: Aug. 6-7 & 13 ✅
- Playoffs: Aug. 20-21 & 27-28 ✅
How to read Champions League title odds
Champions League title odds reflect the probability of each Champions League team winning the championship and are typically presented in American odds format (+XXX). Lower odds signify favoritism, while higher odds indicate underdog status.
A team with +750 odds to win the Champions League is given an 11.76% implied probability of doing so with a $10 bet returning a $75 profit with a victory. A team with +1500 odds would have higher or longer odds, and a lower implied probability of 6.25%, but a win on a $10 bet would return a profit of $150.
Bettors should consider team performance, roster strength, injuries, and historical trends when assessing odds. Individuals can make informed betting decisions during the Champions League season by comparing odds across sportsbooks.
Past Champions League winners
| Team | Year | Odds prior to Round of 16 |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 2024 | +550 |
| Manchester City | 2023 | +185 |
| Real Madrid | 2022 | +1600 |
| Chelsea | 2021 | +1800 |
| Bayern Munich | 2020 | +650 |
| Liverpool | 2019 | +900 |
| Real Madrid | 2018 | +850 |
| Real Madrid | 2017 | +490 |
| Real Madrid | 2016 | +550 |
Champions League wins by team
| Team | Championships | Runners-up |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 15 | 3 |
| Milan | 7 | 4 |
| Bayern Munich | 6 | 5 |
| Liverpool | 6 | 4 |
| Barcelona | 5 | 3 |
| Ajax | 4 | 2 |
| Inter Milan | 3 | 3 |
| Manchester United | 3 | 2 |
| Juventus | 2 | 7 |
| Benfica | 2 | 5 |
Champions League FAQs
Who is the favorite to win the Champions League in 2025?
Man City are the Champions League favorites (+300). Those odds imply a winning probability of 25%.
When does the 2024-25 Champions League start?
The 2024-25 UEFA Champions League got underway with the qualifying rounds starting on July 9, 2024.
Once the field is set, the Group Stage matchweeks begin on Sept. 17, 2024, and run until Jan. 9, 2025.
Knockout rounds begin on Feb. 11, 2025, and take us through to the final on May 31, 2025.
Who won the Champions League last year?
Real Madrid won the Champions League title in 2024 after opening with odds of +650 and closing as roughly -340 favorites the day before the final against Dortmund.
When will the 2025 Champions League be decided?
The 2024-25 Champions League Final will be played on May 31, 2025.
Where will the 2025 Champions League final be played?
The Champions League Final will return to Germany's Allianz Arena for the first time since 2012.
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