Arsenal vs. Hull Prediction, Picks & Odds for Saturday's Premier League Match
The Premier League title favorites return home after midweek success in Europe to host a team that should find itself fighting for relegation when the dust settles, and my Arsenal vs. Hull prediction digs through a lopsided affair to find value.
And that value isn't on the moneyline, where Arsenal is a prohibitive -600 betting favorite ahead of kickoff from the Emirates in North London at 10 a.m. ET (Peacock).
Arsenal vs. Hull predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| Best bets | Odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal Under 6.5 shots on target | +110 via bet365 | 1 units to profit 1.1 units |
| Hull Over 2.5 cards | +167 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.84 units |
Picks submitted: Nov. 6 at 7:30 a.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 1.5 units | Profit if all picks win: 1.94 units
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Arsenal vs. Hull best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Arsenal Under 6.5 shots on target (+110 via bet365)
There's no doubt in anyone's mind that Arsenal is capable of putting plenty of shots on target, but the season is a marathon and not a sprint and they don't tend to continue to pour it on once they get a comfortable lead. In their four home games so far this season, they've only exceeded this line once, finishing with six against Coventry and Leeds, four against Everton, and nine against Chelsea (who allow one of the highest-SOT marks in the league).
Arsenal had plenty of the ball around the box, and even kept attacking after getting an early lead, but Everton's deep defence repeatedly blocked entries and broke up passes. Hull will play a back five out of possession, with wing-backs falling back in line with center-backs. That won't prevent Arsenal from circulating the ball wide and recycling possession, but it makes it harder to get a clean SOT.
My projection is actually low enough that the Under 5.5 offers value and could be a quarter-unit ladder play, but I prefer the safety of the buffer.
Play to: +100, then pivot to Under 5.5 (+200) with a quarter unit
🆚 Who will win Arsenal vs. Hull?
This shouldn't be a close game. While Hull will defend deep and make Arsenal work, the Gunners' pressure will eventually win the day. Once Arsenal opens things up, and Hull has to press forward, then Arsenal should find its comfortable second.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2, Hull 0
More Arsenal vs. Hull expert picks
Hull Over 2.5 cards (+167 via bet365)
This line is below Hull's average mark, but that alone isn't a reason to play it. It comes down to possession: Hull's numbers are abysmal (their 33.4% is a league low as one of two teams sub-40 %, per FotMob), and against an Arsenal side with one of the best midfields in the world, that's a recipe for disaster. Hull's wide midfielders will have plenty of work to do as Arsenal moves the ball from flank to flank, which could quickly lead to tactical fouls piling up.
Once they get into defensive shape, Hull will double-up on Arsenal's wings. But that leaves gaps that the Gunners can work into, and a shirt pull or late clip becomes an easy way to stop that.
Hull should continue to add to its league-leading 25 yellow cards.
Play to: +150
Arsenal vs. Hull
All stats below are for the Premier League season unless otherwise noted.
| Arsenal | Hull | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-0-1 | 2-5-2 |
| Home/Away Record | 4-0-0 | 1-1-2 |
| Recent form (all comps) | WDWDWW | DLDLDD |
| Goals for | 14 | 11 |
| xG | 14.87 | 9.11 |
| Goals against | 5 | 10 |
| xGA | 7.24 | 13.24 |
| Average possession | 58.9% | 33.4% |
Arsenal vs. Hull odds
Arsenal vs. Hull projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for Arsenal vs. Hull; subject to change:
| Arsenal (4-2-3-1) | Hull (5-4-1) |
|---|---|
| Raya (GK) | Tzolakis (GK) |
| Timber (D) | Coyle (D) |
| Konsa (D) | Ajayi (D) |
| Gabriel (D) | Egan (D) |
| Calafiori (D) | Mendy (D) |
| Bruno G. (M) | Giles (D) |
| Rice (M) | Belloumi (M) |
| Madueke (M) | Iroegbunam (M) |
| Odegaard (M) | Slater (M) |
| Tzolis (M) | Stroud (M) |
| Havertz (F) | McBurnie (F) |
Arsenal vs. Hull injuries
Arsenal:
- Bukayo Saka, quad - Out
- Max Dowman, suspended - Out
Hull:
- Jack Butland, elbow - doubtful
- Charlie Hughes, groin - out
- Matt Targett, ankle - out
- Dark Gyabi, groin - out
- Eliot Matazo, knee - out
- Lucas Gourna-Douath, calf - doubtful
- Ilyas Ansah, back - doubtful
How to watch Arsenal vs. Hull
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 7
- Kickoff: 10 a.m. ET
- Location: Emirates Stadium (London)
- TV/Streaming: Peacock
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