We take a look at the best Alabama win total odds through the college football odds and assess whether the Crimson Tide can continue to post double-digit win seasons without Nick Saban at the helm.
Someone other than Nick Saban will be patrolling the sidelines as Alabama's head coach for the first time since 2006. After Saban retired, the Crimson Tide wasted no time while hiring Kalen DeBoer to replace him. DeBoer is coming off a national championship game appearance with Washington.
Replacing Saban is no easy task, but DeBoer has found success at every stop ahead of taking the biggest job in the sport. However, the SEC is as competitive as ever, with Texas and Oklahoma joining the league from the Big 12. The Longhorns are coming off a CFP appearance, while the Sooners have notched multiple playoff appearances over the last decade.
Alabama is coming off a 12-2 campaign that ended with a CFP loss to the eventual champion in the Michigan Wolverines. There's no time to rebuild in Tuscaloosa, as DeBoer will be asked to be a national championship odds contender right away.
But will there be some level of adjustment in Year 1? Our best sports betting apps believe so, as Alabama's win total of 9.5 games is its lowest preseason mark since 2015.
Alabama win total odds
(Odds via FanDuel as of Feb. 2)
|Over 9.5 wins
|Under 9.5 wins
|vs. Western Kentucky
|vs. South Carolina
Alabama win total prediction
Under 9.5 wins (-122)
There's no reason to rush to the window for an Under ticket on Alabama's win total in February. We would recommend waiting for the rest of the best sportsbooks to release win total odds, as shopping around for the top number is critical in this market. The narrowest margins can decide win total outcomes.
However, it's hard not to believe that Alabama failing to reach double-digit regular-season wins is the most likely outcome for Year 1 of the DeBoer era. The Crimson Tide have watched as double-digit players entered the transfer portal after Saban retired, meaning the program is set to go through an obvious transition period.
And then we look at the schedule.
Alabama will play Georgia in the regular season in 2024, and Kirby Smart's Bulldogs are considered the new kings of college football. They missed the CFP last year, but many public power ratings considered the Bulldogs to be the nation's best team. We expect them to be hungry and more than capable of besting the Crimson Tide on the road.
There's a path to finding two more potential losses after that. Alabama must travel to Wisconsin, Tennessee, and LSU in 2024. Home meetings against Missouri and Auburn are no easy victories either, especially after Alabama needed a miraculous fourth-down conversion to defeat its in-state rival during 2023.
We don't believe the Crimson Tide are going to just fall off, as they'll remain in the college football playoff odds mix moving forward. But teams no longer need to win 10-plus games to reach the dance, especially those in the SEC. As long as Alabama is rounding into form at the right time, that's all anyone will truly care about.
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