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Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets shoots against Jimmy Butler as we look at our top Heat vs. Nuggets predictions
Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets shoots against Jimmy Butler of the Miami Heat at HP Field House at ESPN Wide World Of Sports Complex in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images/AFP.

As the Denver Nuggets have a 3-1 series lead in the NBA Finals, it's no surprise that Nikola Jokic remains the favorite at our best NBA betting sites to win NBA Finals MVP. But here's the fun part: Who else should we be keeping an eye on from the Miami Heat in case of a comeback? Check out below as we track the NBA Finals MVP odds throughout the playoffs to help with your NBA picks.

Jokic has certainly lived up to his remarkable performance in the Western Conference Finals, handling the pressure of his first NBA Finals appearance with an average of 30.8 points, 13.5 rebounds, and eight assists over the first four games. Undoubtedly, these impressive statistics will keep Jokic's odds of winning the NBA Finals MVP extremely short, especially considering that the Nuggets are heavy favorites by the NBA Finals odds.

Are we just one Nuggets victory away from seeing pictures of Jokic riding around with his horses, holding the Larry O'Brien trophy and the Bill Russell Trophy? Or should we instead focus on taking advantage of some adjustments made to the odds for several Heat players?

Here is our look at the top 2023 NBA Finals MVP odds from our best NBA betting sites.

NBA Finals MVP odds 2023

(NBA Finals MVP odds updated June 12)

Nikola Jokic-5000 -6000 ❄️-3000 🔥-5000 
Jimmy Butler+3000+4200 🔥+4000+3000 
Jamal Murray+3000+4800 🔥+2200 ❄️+3000 
Bam Adebayo+4000+4900 🔥+4000 +4000 
Aaron Gordon+20000+12000+8000 ❄️+50000 🔥
Caleb Martin+50000N/AN/A+50000
Max Strus+50000N/AN/AN/A
Gabe Vincent+50000 +50000+50000+25000 ❄️
Michael Porter Jr.+50000N/AN/AN/A
Tyler Herro+50000N/AN/AN/A

Check out our NBA best bets and our NBA Finals odds.

NBA Finals MVP odds analysis

As you can see from the odds chart, it's advisable to use all of the best sports betting sites to successfully attack this futures market. FanDuel offers the best prices on Jamal Murray and Bam Adebayo's MVP odds.

NBA Finals MVP odds movement

Jokic remains the front-runner for the NBA Finals MVP award, but with the Nuggets holding a 3-1 series advantage, the Heat have several players waiting in the wings. While Butler is the favorite among the Heat players at our best sportsbooks, there are other intriguing contenders and potential long-shot opportunities within the Heat roster.

Favorite for the NBA Finals MVP odds 2023

Nikola Jokic, Nuggets (-3500 via BetMGM)

Let's be honest, if the Nuggets are going to secure an NBA Finals victory, there's no doubt that Jokic will claim the NBA Finals MVP. With a triple-double in Game 1, a remarkable 41-point performance in Game 2, and a 32-21-10 stat line in Game 3, Jokic's statistics are undeniably impactful, solidifying his position as the clear front-runner for the NBA Finals MVP.

Jokic has been averaging 30.8 points, 13.5 rebounds, and eight assists per game throughout the first four games of the NBA Finals. The discussion has shifted beyond Jokic's potential as the NBA Finals MVP; it now revolves around his ranking among the greatest centers in NBA history.

NBA Finals MVP odds 2023: Contender

Jimmy Butler, Heat (+4200 via FanDuel)

All of our best sports betting sites have taken a strong stance against the Heat winning the NBA Finals following Game 4. Backing Butler at market-best +4200 NBA Finals MVP odds with a small-unit ticket could pay dividends if the Heat pull off the monumental comeback in the series.

Enter SBR's free-to-play NBA Finals Leaderboard Challenge for your shot at the $350 prize pool.

NBA Finals MVP odds 2023: Fade

Jamal Murray, Nuggets (+4800 via FanDuel)

Murray has been someone I've chosen to fade throughout the entirety of the NBA playoffs. Game 3 of the NBA Finals further emphasized this point as his odds lengthened to +5000 at some of our top NBA betting sites despite being the Nuggets' leading scorer with 34 points. While Murray has the potential for some standout performances and his odds shortened again after Game 4, his box score will never come close to matching Jokic's. Even on an off night, Jokic can still pull off a triple-double.

If the Nuggets end up winning the NBA Finals, it's safe to say that Jokic will take home the NBA Finals MVP, not Murray. Especially considering how the Heat have strategically guarded Murray since Game 2, with Kevin Love starting to allow Butler to defend Murray while aggressively blitzing him at every opportunity. The Heat are clearly more focused on shutting down Murray because, let's face it, stopping Jokic is a whole different challenge.

NBA Finals MVP odds trends

  • Superstar players: NBA Finals MVP tends to be awarded to superstar players who have a significant impact on the series. Players like LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, and Kawhi Leonard have been front-runners in recent years.
  • Performance: Consistent high-level performance throughout the series is crucial for winning the MVP award. Players who have standout games, make clutch shots, and contribute in multiple statistical categories often have an advantage.
  • Series outcome: The MVP is typically awarded to a player from the championship-winning team. While exceptional performances from players on the losing team can occur, it is less common.
  • Impact on the game: Players who excel in both offense and defense tend to have an edge in MVP discussions. Contributions on both ends of the court, including scoring, rebounding, playmaking, and defensive efforts, are highly valued.
  • Media narrative: Media coverage and narratives can influence MVP voting. Storylines such as comebacks from injury, historic performances, or players leading their teams against all odds can impact voters' decisions.

Remember, odds can change throughout the NBA Finals based on player performances, injuries, and other factors. It's always a good idea to refer to reliable sportsbooks or websites for the most up-to-date odds and information.

Understanding NBA Finals MVP odds

NBA Finals MVP odds are a way for sportsbooks to set the probability of a specific player winning the MVP award for the NBA Finals. These odds represent the sportsbook's estimation of a player's likelihood to be named the Finals MVP based on various factors such as performance, team success, and historical trends.

The odds for each player are determined based on a combination of factors, including their regular-season and playoff performance, team success, historical trends, public opinion, and betting patterns. Sportsbooks adjust the odds throughout the series based on the players' performances and other relevant factors.

It's important to note that odds are not a guarantee but rather a representation of the sportsbook's estimation of the probability of a particular outcome. Different sportsbooks may offer slightly different odds, so it's advisable to compare odds from multiple sources to find the best value.

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Recent NBA Finals MVP winners

TeamYearClosing odds
Stephen Curry2022-110
Giannis Antetokounmpo2021+275
LeBron James2020-160
Kawhi Leonard2019+245
Kevin Durant2018-135
Kevin Durant2017+190
LeBron James2016+225
Andre Iguodala2015+12500
Kawhi Leonard2014+1800
LeBron James2013-250

NBA betting odds pages

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Who won the NBA Finals MVP last year?

Stephen Curry won his first NBA Finals MVP award in 2022, despite winning four NBA championships.

Who is the current betting favorite to win the 2023 NBA Finals MVP?

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is the current favorite at -160 to win his first NBA Finals MVP award. 

Here are our best NBA betting sites

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