NBA Draft Winners & Losers: Will Wizards Make Playoffs After Drafting AJ Dybantsa?

Now that the first round has wrapped up at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y., it’s time to break down the 2026 NBA Draft winners and losers.

I analyze who benefited most from the draft and who suffered as a result. I also break down playoff probabilities for the upcoming season, according to prediction market apps, with a focus on the Washington Wizards’ chances after selecting AJ Dybantsa with the No. 1 overall pick.

📈 NBA Draft winners

Wizards: Picking AJ is "a W"

While Darryn Peterson, who went to the Utah Jazz with the No. 2 overall pick, potentially has more upside than Dybantsa, the Wizards made the smart choice.

Scouts and coaches had concerns about Peterson’s mentality, and there was no need to take a risk on the Kansas guard when Dybantsa offers similar talent without the same concerns. As it stands, the Wizards could roll out a lineup of Trae Young, Kyshawn George, Dybantsa, Anthony Davis, and Alex Sarr in a weak Eastern Conference.

Thunder: Can't go "Aday" without thinking about Wemby

One of the factors that led to the Oklahoma City Thunder’s loss to the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference Finals was Chet Holmgren struggling to guard Victor Wembanyama. Isaiah Hartenstein did just fine, but the question remained: What would the Thunder do to try to combat Wembanyama’s size? Enter Aday Mara.

The 7-foot-3, 255-pound center is not only just one inch shorter than Wembanyama, but he also has 20 pounds on the NBA MVP favorite. If the Thunder can keep Hartenstein, they’ll have two 7-footers on their roster who are strong enough to potentially give Wembanyama fits.

📉 NBA Draft losers

Spurs: Thunder is coming

The Spurs and Thunder are the two most likely teams to win the NBA championship next season, so any positive for Oklahoma City is a negative for San Antonio. Sure, there's nothing wrong with the Spurs selecting Jayden Quaintance with the 20th pick in the first round, but he doesn't fundamentally change the team.

San Antonio needed an upset victory in Game 7 to get past Oklahoma City in the West finals, and Mara could potentially be the difference-maker who pushes the Thunder over the top this time around.

Pacers: Dude, where's my pick?

The Indiana Pacers sent their top-four-protected first-round pick to the LA Clippers in the Ivica Zubac trade, and it ended up becoming the No. 5 selection in the draft lottery. While there was buzz that the Clippers would trade the pick to facilitate a three-team deal for Jaylen Brown, they instead drafted Keaton Wagler out of Illinois.

Indiana, on the other hand, made no moves to acquire a pick in the first round, but it probably should have. It's not as if a Big Three of Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, and Ivica Zubac is a lock to reach the finals.

📊 NBA teams playoff probabilities in 2026-27

Follow all of our NBA analysis this season.

Kalshi has opened its market for which teams will qualify for the playoffs. While less than $2,000 in volume has been cleared as of the time of publication, the market offers an early look at where prices could settle as more traders get involved.

Based on the current order books, the implied probability of Washington making the playoffs ranges from 12% to 49%, while Utah is priced between 13% and 64%. With bid-ask spreads still wide during this early price-discovery phase, it's difficult to state a single consensus probability, but it's definitely a market worth monitoring as liquidity increases.

(Note: Making the play-in tournament does not count as qualifying for the playoffs in this market.)

🧙 Will the Washington Wizards make the playoffs?

See all of our experts' NBA predictions based on the latest NBA odds.

The Wizards had the No. 1 overall pick, and with two multiple-time All-Stars on their roster, fans will expect an improvement on last season's 17-65 record. While market-makers at Kalshi have yet to find the sweet spot for the Wizards' playoff probability, it's hard to imagine a team with Young and Davis missing the playoffs in the East if they both stay healthy - unfortunately for Wizards fans, that's a big if.

I can't name eight teams in the East with a better roster than the Wizards, and I would give them roughly a 50% chance of making the playoffs.

💰 How to use NBA prediction markets

What does an NBA prediction market measure?

An NBA prediction market measures the likelihood of a specific outcome - such as a team making the playoffs.

How do prices work?

• Prices range from 1 cent to 99 cents
• A 40-cent contract implies a 40% chance based on market consensus
• If the outcome occurs, the contract settles at $1
• If not, it settles at $0

Prices move as traders react to news, such as trades, signings, and wins.

Can positions be exited early?

Yes. Contracts can typically be sold early. That flexibility allows participants to respond to breaking news or shifts in momentum rather than holding a position until the final outcome.

How is Kalshi different from sportsbooks?

Kalshi operates as an exchange, not a house. Participants trade directly with each other, and prices are set by supply and demand instead of fixed odds.

Key distinctions include:

• Probabilities shown in cents rather than traditional odds
• Focus on real-world outcomes, not margins or spreads
• Ability to adjust or close positions before resolution

Is Kalshi regulated?

Yes. Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Market rules, settlement criteria, and contract definitions are published in advance.