North Carolina Poll Shows Skepticism on Prediction Markets

A new poll of North Carolina voters has found significant skepticism regarding prediction markets, despite the state being the first in the US to recognize federal oversight of the sector.  

The Meredith College poll, conducted between July 1 and July 8 with 1,022 registered voters, found that 51% of respondents were happy with the current level of regulation of North Carolina sports betting, while only 11% were dissatisfied. Support for prediction markets was much weaker, however, with two-thirds of respondents in favor of a ban on prediction markets in North Carolina, against 24% who believed they should be legal.  

The survey also revealed that many voters are unfamiliar with prediction market apps. Only 15% said they were familiar with them, while 38% said they were somewhat familiar, and 47% responded that they were unfamiliar.  

Although respondents were generally accepting of legal sports betting, they had concerns about the potential impact on some groups. Around 58% expressed concern about illegal sports betting involving people under 21. Half of those surveyed also expressed concern about the effects of sports betting on college athletes, compared with 36% who said they had little or no concern. 

“Concerns were substantially greater when questions focused on underage gambling, young adults, or college athletes than when respondents evaluated sports betting in general,” Meredith Poll director David McLennan said. “This pattern suggests that residents do not simply evaluate sports betting as an entertainment activity; they also consider its broader implications for families, communities, and higher education.” 

North Carolina accepts federal prediction market oversight 

The survey of North Carolina residents comes shortly after the state's new budget made it the first to recognize the federal government's authority over prediction markets.  

The budget imposed a 6% tax on the revenue of prediction market operators but also confirmed that companies registered with the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission can operate in the state under the Commodity Exchange Act.  

“It’s pretty clear that it’s something that seems to be growing both in popularity and in terms of just recognition that it’s out there,” North Carolina Senate leader Phil Berger told WRAL. “Whether it’s something that eventually is going to take over from the sports betting, I don’t know.” 

The move comes as states across the US continue to debate whether prediction market platforms should be regulated federally as financial markets or fall under the oversight of state gambling regulators.  

The same budget also increased North Carolina's tax on sports betting companies from 18% to 23% of gross wagering revenue, effectively creating a lower tax rate for prediction market companies than for traditional sportsbooks. 

North Carolina's approach is starkly different from that of several other states. Kentucky has imposed an excise tax on prediction market transaction fees while pursuing enforcement action against operators, and Illinois is facing legal action after adding prediction markets to its sports wagering tax framework.