AGA Projects Flat NFL Handle Shift

The American Gaming Association (AGA) has released its forecast for the upcoming 2026 NFL season, and for the first time in nearly a decade since the federal ban on sports betting was overturned, it looks like NFL handle might remain flat across the best sports betting sites. Compared to last year's handle of $29.4 billion, an increase of just 0.3% is expected. 

That is in large part due to the rise of prediction market apps. With fewer states legalizing sports betting, and many of the states with legal sports betting hitting a saturation point for operators, the federally overseen derivative event contract market has boomed to swoop in. Operators like Kalshi and Polymarket are bringing on new users and drawing attention away from established sportsbooks. 

The AGA's official forecasted handle factors in growth trends that are then factored into the previous seasons numbers. The number includes all betting handle from offseason futures, the preseason, regular season, postseason, and through the Super Bowl in February. While the overall figure remains massive, the rush of growth has plateaued. 

"Since the Supreme Court struck down the federal sports betting ban in 2018, legalized sports betting had seen tremendous growth," said AGA President and CEO Bill Miller.

"But this year is different. Since the widespread launch of backdoor sports betting on so-called 'prediction markets,' the growth of legal handle has stalled."

Many high-volume bettors have moved to prediction markets as well, due to the nationwide availability and low transaction fees, and often without being limited. 

Prediction market court battles

While prediction markets are digging into the handle for regulated sportsbooks, it hasn't been all smooth sailing. Many of the major players are fighting court battles on a variety of fronts, including a recent request from one state to head to the Supreme Court. 

The New Jersey sports betting market famously helped overturn the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) in 2018, paving the way for state-by-state sports betting nationwide. Once again, the state is looking to lead the way in shaping nationwide gambling jurisprudence. After a Third Circuit ruling shielded Kalshi from state gaming laws, the state has asked the Supreme Court to settle the issue. 

In the Great Lakes State, things are heating up. Earlier this summer, a federal judge in Michigan handed Polymarket a significant defeat, ruling that wagers tied to sporting events do not qualify as swaps under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).  

The Bluegrass State is fighting legal battles with both Kalshi and Polymarket, as well as retail trading partners such as Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull.

The lawsuits allege that the platforms are violating the Kentucky sports betting market gambling statutes. Kalshi tried to move the state enforcement action to federal court, arguing that federal commodity laws supersede state gambling enforcement. However, Kentucky prosecutors filed opposition motions to block the removal, insisting that state courts retain jurisdiction over consumer protection and gambling enforcement within state border