Brewers vs. Cubs Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (Wednesday, Sept. 2)

RHP Jacob Misiorowski and LHP David Peterson square off today in the third game of a four-game set as we break down the Brewers vs. Cubs win probability.

The Brewers have a 59% win probability on prediction market apps, but that number should be higher considering how well the NL Cy Young favorite has pitched this season. First pitch from Wrigley Field in Chicago is set for 7:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network, MLB.TV).

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🏆 Who will win Brewers vs. Cubs? Live MLB win probability

The Brewers have a 59% win probability, and more than $797,000 has already been traded in the market. Milwaukee's win probability opened at 52.4% Sunday night, but money has come in on the Brewers as liquidity has increased. Yes contracts on Milwaukee are available at 60¢, with more than $465,000 in liquidity at that price.

After losing Monday's opener 17-3, the Brewers bounced back with a 9-4 win in the second game Tuesday. Christian Yelich hit a two-run homer in the sixth inning, and Joey Ortiz added a two-run shot in the eighth. The Brewers are in first place in the NL Central, eight games ahead of the second-place Cubs.

Chicago lost for the eighth time in its last 12 games Tuesday. The Cubs' win probability was as high as 91.1%, per ESPN Analytics, while they led 3-0 in the bottom of the fourth inning. Tyrone Taylor drove in two of the Cubs' four runs with a double in the fourth. Carson Kelly drove in a run on a fielder's choice in the sixth.

My prediction: Brewers win (60¢). The Cubs' disadvantage at starting pitcher today will likely be too much for them to overcome. Misiorowski ranks in the 99th percentile in xBA (.168), while Peterson ranks in the ninth percentile in that stat (.272).

💣 Who will hit a home run in Brewers vs. Cubs?

The favorite in the NL MVP odds, Pete Crow-Armstrong, has the highest chance of hitting a home run today at 22%. Crow-Armstrong has homered five times across his last four games.

Jackson Chourio has the second-highest chance at 21%, followed by William Contreras and Seiya Suzuki, both at 17%. Michael Busch is next in line at 14%, followed by Ian Happ and Alex Bregman at 13%, and Brice Turang at 10%.

My prediction: Jackson Chourio to hit a home run (21¢). Chourio is slugging .566 against fastballs, Peterson's most-used pitch type against right-handed hitters (54.7% usage). He's homered three times across his last six outings and has a better than 21% chance of doing so again today. For more home run analysis, see the rest of my home run predictions today.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Brewers vs. Cubs?

More than $10,000 in volume has cleared in this market, with traders projecting a 46% chance of a first-inning run. If you're looking to buy Yes contracts at 47¢, you can instantly get more than $25,000 filled.

The Brewers have had a first-inning run scored in 48% of their games, while the Cubs have seen a first-inning run in 47% of theirs. Misiorowski has not allowed a first-inning run in seven straight starts, while Peterson hasn't allowed one in two of his last three starts.

My prediction: No run in the first inning (54¢). Misiorowski has allowed just five earned runs across 25 first innings this season (1.80 ERA), and Peterson has been just good enough early on in recent starts for there to be value on the No at this price. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our NRFIs today from our MLB expert LJ Blut.

📊 Brewers vs. Cubs win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Brewers vs. Cubs

• Date: Wednesday, Sept. 2
• First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Wrigley Field (Chicago)
• TV: MLB Network
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Brewers starter: Jacob Misiorowski (14-5, 1.73 ERA)
• Cubs starter: David Peterson (7-7, 5.11 ERA)