Rays vs. Guardians Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Thursday, Oct. 15

The ALCS heads to Progressive Field in Cleveland, tied 1-1. The Guardians will turn to Gavin Williams, while the Rays will look to Griffin Jax, as both teams fight to take control of the series.

My best Rays vs. Guardians prediction focuses on how well these pitchers have performed of late. My other MLB picks include a player prop and home run bet. The Guardians are -133 favorites ahead of Thursday's 1 p.m. ET Game 3. The game will air on TBS and truTV and stream on HBO Max.

Rays vs. Guardians picks & odds today

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Who will win Rays vs. Guardians?

I'm taking the Guardians to win this game 3-2. Jax has been solid, but he's struggled to go deep into games, which means the Guardians will get plenty of looks against a bullpen they've scored six runs off in this series.

Score prediction: Guardians 3, Rays 2

Rays vs. Guardians prediction & best bet

First 5 innings Under 3.5 runs (-113)

Jax has allowed one or fewer runs in five consecutive appearances. Though he didn't face the Guardians this season, he's holding them to .230 in his career, and he's yet to allow a home run. Additionally, the Guardians haven't scored in the first five innings in this series.

While the Rays have had early offensive success in this series, Williams enters this game with a 1.54 postseason ERA. He's allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of his last eight appearances, and earlier this season, he didn't give up a single earned run in 7.2 innings against the Rays.

Best Rays vs. Guardians player prop bet

Gavin Williams Over 6.5 strikeouts (+107)

This postseason, Williams has struck out 24 batters in just 11.2 innings. And while the Rays finished the regular season as the least strikeout-prone team and are only averaging 6.4 strikeouts per game this postseason, Williams has already proven himself against this lineup.

In his only start against the Rays this season, Williams struck out nine batters in 7.2 innings. Williams had the second-most strikeouts during the regular season, and he has struck out at least seven batters in six of his last seven starts.

Rays vs. Guardians home run prediction

Yandy Diaz to hit a home run (+800)

Diaz hasn't homered since Sept. 8, but he still finished tied for second in home runs on the Rays. And while he's never hit a home run off Williams, he's produced a slash line of .467/.500/.667. He's recorded seven hits in his 15 plate appearances, with three doubles.

Though Williams has allowed just one home run in his last eight appearances, he allowed 28 in the regular season. He also allowed the 11th-highest percentage of barrelled balls and 198 95+ mph hits, the 24th-most in the league.

Live Rays vs. Guardians odds

The Guardians are favored, but the majority of bets and betting handle back the Rays to win. Because the support is currently north of 80%, I wouldn't be surprised if the Guardians' moneyline dropped to around -125. As for the total, bettors are currently split, which isn't surprising when looking at how much success these pitchers have had recently.

Rays vs. Guardians betting trends

Rays vs. Guardians injuries

📺 How to watch Rays vs. Guardians

• Date: Thursday, Oct. 15
• First pitch: 1 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Progressive Field (Cleveland)
• TV: TBS/truTV
• Streaming: HBO Max
• Rays starter: Griffin Jax (0-0, 4.50 ERA)
• Guardians starter: Gavin Williams (1-0, 1.54 ERA)