Football Helps Push Prediction Markets Past $10 Billion Weekend
Prediction markets surpassed $10.5 billion in notional trading volume over the Oct. 10–11 weekend, as NFL and college football activity helped drive one of the industry's busiest weekends.
According to DeFi Rate's prediction market tracker, trading across nine exchanges reached approximately $10.52 billion over the two days, including $5.68 billion on Sunday. Kalshi dominated activity, generating approximately $7.88 billion in weekend volume, while Polymarket US recorded $1.22 billion.
A separate TickerTracker analysis reported by The Straight put total volume at $10.4 billion, reflecting differences in tracking methodologies. The figures represent notional trading volume, not customer deposits, actual money spent or operator revenue.
Football drives weekend activity
Football remained a major contributor to Kalshi's trading activity, although combo contracts accounted for much of the exchange's reported volume as they have for most prediction market apps that have announced them.
According to The PM Pulse's Oct. 13 report, published in partnership with Aldrin Research, Kalshi recorded $1.5 billion in standalone football trading during the Oct. 5–11 week, a 12% increase from the previous week. Across all sports, Kalshi generated $3.8 billion in standalone trading volume, up 5%.
The exchange also established consecutive daily trading records, recording $3.91 billion on Saturday and $3.96 billion on Sunday, according to Aldrin's figures. Kalshi wasn't alone in attracting customers. Polymarket US generated $2.8 billion in weekly volume, while DraftKings Predictions reached $734 million and Novig recorded $672 million.
Combined industry volume reached $25.6 billion for the week, a 4.6% increase and the highest weekly total recorded by The PM Pulse's tracking series.
Combo contracts inflate headline totals
While the numbers demonstrate significant trading activity, combo contracts have become an increasingly important consideration when evaluating prediction-market growth. Combos bundle multiple outcomes into a single contract, functioning similarly to sportsbook parlays.
According to The PM Pulse, combos accounted for 65.3% of Kalshi's weekly trading volume, generating $12.4 billion. They also represented 71.2% of the industry's week-over-week volume increase. That matters because prediction-market volume is commonly measured using contracts' $1 settlement value, rather than the amount buyers actually pay.
For example, purchasing 100 contracts at 10 cents each costs $10 before fees but produces $100 in reported notional volume.
The distinction becomes especially relevant for low-priced combo contracts, where multiple selections can create substantial differences between contract face value and customer spending.
Excluding combos, Kalshi's weekly market share was reportedly 63.8%, down from 65.1% the previous week.
Analysts forecast continued growth
Despite the measurement differences, analysts expect prediction-market activity to expand significantly.
Macquarie forecasts industry taker volume will reach $187 billion in 2026, compared with approximately $22 billion in 2025. That forecast measures taker volume rather than the weekend's headline notional activity.
Analyst Chad Beynon expects sports to remain a major growth driver through year-end, with November's midterm elections potentially generating additional political trading.
Macquarie also identified DraftKings and FanDuel as potential beneficiaries as prediction markets expand into additional jurisdictions.
For now, football continues to attract significant trading volume. However, with combo contracts accounting for much of the industry's growth, headline records alone provide an incomplete picture of how much money customers are spending.
