Rays vs. Guardians Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, Oct. 16

Tonight, Shawn Armstrong will open for the Guardians as they look to take a 3-1 series lead. The Rays will start Nick Martinez.

My best Rays vs. Guardians prediction for Game 4 of the ALCS focuses on the Rays' pitching advantage helping them even up the series 2-2. My other MLB picks include a player prop and home run bet ahead of tonight's 8 p.m. ET game at Progressive Field in Cleveland. The Rays are slight -112 favorites, and the game will air on TBS and truTV and stream on HBO Max.

Rays vs. Guardians picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;

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Who will win Rays vs. Guardians?

I'm taking the Rays to win 4-2. While Martinez has struggled a bit lately, he has great numbers against the Guardians' best hitters, which will take some of the pressure off the Rays' struggling offense.

Score prediction: Rays 4 Guardians 2

Rays vs. Guardians prediction & best bet

Rays ML (-112)

Martinez finished the regular season with the 12th-best WHIP and 14th-best ERA, and he has excellent numbers against the best the Guardians have to offer. Jose Ramirez, Patrick Bailey, and Petey Halpin, the Guardians' three best hitters this postseason, are a combined 3-for-20 against Martinez.

Armstrong pitched Tuesday against the Rays, allowing just one hit in 1.2 innings. However, he allowed three earned runs in 0.2 innings to the Rays earlier this season, and the Rays have a team OPS of .780 against him.

Best Rays vs. Guardians player prop bet

Steven Kwan Over 1.5 total bases (+190)

As good as Martinez has been against the majority of the Guardians' lineup, he's struggled against Kwan. Kwan is 3-for-7 with two doubles against him. While Kwan has only recorded five extra-base hits since Sept. 1, his 1.143 OPS against Martinez makes me think he could hit this Over with one swing.

Additionally, while Martinez has generally succeeded against left-handed batters this season, holding them to just a .236 average, they've also hit an extra-base hit in 8.7% of their at-bats. Compare that to right-handers, who have achieved such a feat in just 7.9% of their opportunities.

Rays vs. Guardians home run prediction

Jose Ramirez to hit a home run (+700)

In a game where a home run seems unlikely, I'm backing Ramirez, who is the hottest hitter for either team right now. He hit two home runs against the White Sox in the ALDS, and he has recorded multiple hits in two of his three games against the Rays.

While he's just 1-for-11 against Martinez in his career, Martinez also hasn't pitched more than 3.2 innings in back-to-back appearances, so Ramirez may only have to face him once or twice. This will give him multiple chances against relievers, as he has at least four plate appearances in 28 consecutive games.

Live Rays vs. Guardians odds

85% of the betting handle is backing the Rays to win, so I expect the moneyline to swell to around -120 before the first pitch. I'd take the Rays at -125 or better since I think they have an advantage with Martinez on the mound tonight. As for the total, 64% of the betting handle is backing more than 6.5 runs. This isn't enough support for me to expect the total to hit 7.5 or even 7.

Rays vs. Guardians betting trends

Rays vs. Guardians injuries

How to watch Rays vs. Guardians

• Date: Friday, Oct. 16
• First pitch: 8 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Progressive Field (Cleveland)
• TV: TBS/truTV
• Streaming: HBO Max
• Rays starter: Nick Martinez (0-0, 4.91 ERA)
• Guardians starter: Shawn Armstrong (0-0, 0.00 ERA)