MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds (Wednesday, Sept. 2)
My MLB home run picks went 0-for-3 Tuesday night, but we have a loaded Wednesday slate to bounce back. My home run predictions today feature Jackson Chourio, Kazuma Okamoto, and Paul Goldschmidt, who will all likely take advantage of favorable pitching matchups.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Sept. 2
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio to homer (+393 via DraftKings) | 0.51u β 2u | Chourio is slugging .566 vs. fastballs, which Peterson throws 54.7% of the time vs. RHH. |
| Kazuma Okamoto to homer (+430 via BetRivers) | 0.47u β 2u | Cantillo throws a wide range of pitches vs. RHH, and Okamoto is slugging .424 or higher vs. each pitch type. |
| Paul Goldschmidt to homer (+475 via Hard Rock Bet) | 0.42u β 2u | Detmers throws primarily fastballs (46.1%) and breaking balls (41.1%) vs. RHH, and Goldschmidt is slugging .511 and .418 against those pitch types, respectively. |
Total wagered: 1.4 units | Max profit: 6 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Jackson Chourio (+393)
Not only has Chourio homered three times across his last six games, but he also has a pitching matchup today that he'll likely take advantage of.
Cubs starter David Peterson throws fastballs 54.7% of the time against right-handed hitters, and Chourio is slugging .566 against that pitch type. Chourio has had success against lefties, too, slashing .298/.379/.492 with six home runs in just 124 at-bats this season.
DraftKings' +393 odds for Chourio to homer are the best available among the top MLB betting sites.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB Network, MLB.TV
💵 SBR Edge: Chourio vs. Peterson
Chourio is 3-for-8 in his career against Peterson, including a leadoff home run in their last meeting on June 27.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+430)
Okamoto has cashed as a home run hitter in two of his last four games, and now he faces Guardians starter Joey Cantillo.
The Guardians left-hander throws a wide range of pitches, with his least-used pitch type being offspeed pitches (28.1% usage). Okamoto, though, doesn't really have a glaring weakness when it comes to pitch type, as he's slugging .424 or higher against fastballs, breaking balls, and offspeed pitches.
Okamoto to homer (+430) at BetRivers is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Paul Goldschmidt (+475)
Goldschmidt will likely lead off today, and since New York is the road team, we'll get as many at-bats as possible out of the Yankees slugger (barring any pinch-runners or hitters).
He faces Angels starter Reid Detmers, who primarily throws fastballs (46.1% usage) and breaking balls (41.1%). Goldschmidt is slugging .511 and .418 against those pitch types, respectively, and has homered in two of his last four games.
Goldschmidt to homer (+475) at Hard Rock Bet is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
⚾️ More MLB player props today
Our Mike Spector features Roman Anthony and Mickey Gasper in his Mariners vs. Red Sox prediction.
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Jackson Chourio to homer
- Kazuma Okamoto to homer
- Paul Goldschmidt to homer
Best odds: +13356 via DraftKings
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-70-4 | -16.85 units β | -21.1% β |
| Player props | 10-55-3 | -11.7 units β | -28.3% β |
| Game props | 8-8 | -3.1 units β | -10.7% β |
| Moneylines | 1-1-1 | +0.11 units β | 1.7% β |
| Run lines | 0-1 | -2.36 units β | -100% β |
| Totals | 1-0 | +0.5 units β | 100% β |
| Parlays | 0-5 | -0.3 units β | -100% β |
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