Mariners vs. Red Sox Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Wednesday, Sept. 2

The Boston Red Sox look to finish a sweep of the slumping Seattle Mariners when they meet in a Wednesday afternoon series finale at Fenway Park. My Mariners vs. Red Sox prediction calls for a big day offensively for Boston, led by the return of promising leadoff man Roman Anthony. But it is a different Red Sox slugger I’m backing to go yard with the last of my MLB picks.

The starting pitching matchup is between Bryce Miller and Patrick Sandoval, with first pitch scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET (MLB.TV). The Red Sox are -140 betting favorites.

⚾ Mariners vs. Red Sox picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.61 units

🏆 Who will win Mariners vs. Red Sox?

Boston has been the best team in the Majors since the All-Star Break, and should keep rolling against a Mariners squad that entered yesterday a season-high 10 games under .500.

Score prediction: Red Sox 7, Mariners 4

💰 Mariners vs. Red Sox prediction & best bet

Red Sox team total Over 4.5 (+114)

Seattle hasn’t lived up to expectations after reaching the ALCS last year. But its 9-8 loss on Monday after leading 8-5 in the eighth inning might have been the loss that broke its back. It  also made for inflated Red Sox moneyline odds today, which has me getting creative with this wager.

Bryce Miller is coming off an August where he pitched to a 9.00 ERA, and the righty has allowed five-plus earned runs in four of his last six starts. Entering this series since Aug 2, Seattle’s bullpen didn’t fare any better with an MLB-worst 8.14 ERA. 

🔥 Best Mariners vs. Red Sox player prop bet

Roman Anthony Over 0.5 runs (-113)

Since Aug. 2 to the start of this week, there was a glaring gap between Seattle’s 8.14 bullpen ERA and the next worst over that span (Cincinnati’s relievers pitched to a 5.66 ERA). Mariners relievers also allowed a .313 opponent’s average, a .518 opponent’s slugging percentage, and blew four saves. 

I don’t expect a long start from Bryce Miller, whose 23.9% CSW% in the second half of the season is lower than any of his individual months leading up to the All-Star Break.

All Roman Anthony did in his first three games back from a near four-month layoff was produce three multi-hit games, with three total extra-base hits and three runs scored. He should again find his way on base often and be a catalyst for the Red Sox offense against one of MLB’s most struggling pitchers.

💣 Mariners vs. Red Sox home run prediction

Mickey Gasper to hit a home run (+630)

When Willson Contreras landed on the IL, that paved the way for Mickey Gasper to be re-inserted into the lineup and prove he wasn’t a one-month wonder. 

Gasper finished August with a 1.671 OPS, which at one point was rivaling Ted Williams (2.314 in Sept. 1957) and Barry Bonds (1.828 in April 2004) for the highest OPS in a calendar month since 1901. In all, his 1.671 OPS ranks fifth-highest in a single calendar month (min. 30 PA).

Bryce Miller has allowed nearly the exact same amount of home runs to left-handed batters (nine) as righties (eight). But the 12 doubles allowed to lefties compared to one to right-handed batters suggests further regression could come from a home run perspective. I still cannot believe Gasper has these odds after homering in both games to start the series.

🚀 Mariners vs. Red Sox same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay pair nicely to help Boston cash its team total Over, getting direct help from Anthony crossing the plate and Gasper driving in a run. Gasper drove in 13 runs in just 30 at-bats in a torrid August. He makes for a great value play addition as the third leg of an SGP as he finished August with at least one RBI eight of the 12 total games in the month.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Mariners vs. Red Sox: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

I would not put anyone off backing the Red Sox moneyline or -1.5 runline odds (+155 at bet365 is the best price), considering Seattle is 0-8 in Bryce Miller’s last eight starts, with a minus-69 run differential in that span. But Boston’s team total Over are great odds considering the Red Sox have scored five-plus runs in nine of its last 15 games, including six of the seven games they won in that span.

📊 Live Mariners vs. Red Sox odds

Boston's moneyline odds have stayed stagnant at most of the best sports betting sites since last night. The most interesting movement is at bet365, where the Red Sox reached a high of -149 (59.84% implied odds) from an opening number of -143, but have since fallen back to -135. The total has remained firm at 8.5 across the market despite 56% of the wagers backing the Over, likely as a reaction to the first two slugfests in this series.

📈 Mariners vs. Red Sox betting trends

🚑 Mariners vs. Red Sox injuries

📺 How to watch Mariners vs. Red Sox

• Date: Wednesday, Sept. 2
• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Fenway Park (Boston)
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Mariners starter: Bryce Miller (4-8, 4.12 ERA)
• Red Sox starter: Patrick Sandoval (1-3, 4.20 ERA)