Cy Young Odds & Favorites 2024: Southpaws Skubal & Sale Lead Pack, Skenes Looms as Contender

A pair of lefties headline the Cy Young races with the unofficial second half of the season underway, but a flamethrowing rookie looms in the National League.

Both the AL and NL Cy Young races feature familiar faces atop the oddsboard. In the AL, it's previous Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes pushing Detroit Tigers southpaw Tarik Skubal for favorite status.

Meanwhile, veterans Chris Sale and Zack Wheeler battle it out in the NL, but rookie phenom Paul Skenes is making his presence felt as the third name behind those two. Can the Pittsburgh Pirates' superstar pull off the unthinkable and win NL Cy Young despite not making a start until May 11?

This race is far more competitive than either by the MLB MVP odds, and it's worth tracking regularly at our best MLB betting sites.

Odds to win American League Cy Young 2024

(AL Cy Young odds from our best sports betting apps as of July 21 | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds)

AL Cy Young odds analysis

July 21, 2024: After several dominant outings to begin the campaign, Skubal started to look human. The lefty allowed more than two earned runs just twice in his first 13 starts, but then he gave up four in back-to-back outings against the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves.

However, he appeared to have locked back in with four straight impressive starts before the All-Star break. Skubal pitched 26 innings during that run, allowing just six earned runs and racking up an incredible 35 strikeouts.

He's pulled away from Burnes, who had made up a ton of ground during Skubal's two lackluster starts. But, unfortunately for Burnes' backers, Skubal's resurgence has coincided with a bit of a slide for the Orioles' ace.

Burnes gave up 27 hits across 26 innings over his final four starts entering the break, with five being home runs.

Skubal boasts the second-lowest ERA in the AL (2.41), is tied for the fifth-most strikeouts (140) in the league, and owns the second-best WHIP (0.88).

If Skubal can keep it together, a $10 bet on his -130 odds pays a $7.69 profit, and his shortest odds (-145) imply a 59.18% probability of his winning. 

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Odds to win National League Cy Young 2024

(NL Cy Young odds from our best sports betting apps as of July 21 | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds)

NL Cy Young odds analysis

July 21, 2024: The two leaders are close, but Sale recently leapfrogged Wheeler. Though Wheeler has steadied the ship lately, he's not that far removed from giving up eight earned runs and four homers to the Orioles.

It was by far his worst start of the year and contributed to the veteran's slip from atop the board. But, rather than fall apart, Wheeler has been solid in his last four starts, allowing just one dinger and six earned runs, notching 27 punchouts. 

Thanks to his bounce-back effort, Wheeler is tied for the lowest ERA (2.70), owns the third-lowest WHIP (0.99), and is tied for the sixth-most strikeouts (126) in the NL. He's also the ace for the team with the second-shortest World Series odds.

Still, he's getting plenty of competition from Sale, who's the narrow favorite. The 35-year-old Braves starter is tied with Wheeler in the NL in ERA, and he's third in strikeouts (140), and second in WHIP (0.95). 

It'll be tight between Sale and Wheeler, and the latter needs to avoid further blowups. However, looming behind them is Skenes, whom Steamer projects as the most valuable pitcher for the rest of the season.

Sale's +140 odds imply a 41.67% chance he'll earn the award on the NL side, with a $10 wager earning $14 in profit.

Past AL Cy Young winners

Past NL Cy Young winners

How to bet on the MLB Cy Young 

When betting on the Cy Young pick a reputable sportsbook offering Cy Young futures. Check the odds for various pitchers; for instance, if Pitcher A has +300 odds and Pitcher B has +800, Pitcher A is favored to win.

Decide how much to wager and place your bet. If you bet $100 on Pitcher A at +300 and they win, you’ll get $400 back ($300 profit + $100 stake). Keep an eye on pitcher performances throughout the season to gauge how your bet is shaping up.

Remember, if a pitcher performs exceptionally well or poorly, their odds will shift. Injuries to the pitcher or competitors can significantly impact their Cy Young chances.

The success of the pitcher's team can also influence their odds. Public betting trends play a role; if many people are betting on one pitcher, sportsbooks might adjust the odds to balance their risk.

Expert analysis and predictions can also influence how people bet, which in turn affects the odds.

Understanding these factors helps you make informed bets and potentially capitalize on favorable odds movements.

How to read MLB Cy Young odds

Odds are typically shown in a format like +300 or -150. Positive odds (e.g., +300) indicate how much profit you'd make on a $100 bet.

For example, a $100 bet at +300 odds would win you $300, plus your original $100 stake, totaling $400. Negative odds (e.g., -150) show how much you need to bet to win $100. So, a $150 bet at -150 odds would win you $100, plus your $150 stake, totaling $250.

These odds also reflect the implied probability of a pitcher winning the Cy Young Award. Lower odds (e.g., +200) suggest a higher likelihood of winning, while higher odds (e.g., +1000) indicate a lower likelihood. 

For example, if Pitcher A has +300 odds and Pitcher B has +800 odds, Pitcher A is considered more likely to win. If you bet $100 on Pitcher A and they win, you'd get $400 back ($300 profit + $100 stake).

Sportsbooks adjust these odds based on factors like pitcher performance, injuries, team success, and betting patterns. Understanding these odds helps you make informed betting decisions and assess potential returns.

MLB Cy Young FAQs

Who are the Cy Young award favorites?

Tarik Skubal (-130) is the AL Cy Young favorite, while Chris Sale (+140) is the NL favorite.

Who won the Cy Young awards last year?

Gerrit Cole of the New York Yankees won the American League Cy Young award in 2023.

San Diego Padres lefty Blake Snell took home the National League honors. In doing so, Snell became the seventh pitcher to win the Cy Young in both the AL and NL.

When will the Cy Young winners be announced?

The 2023 Cy Young award winners were announced on Wednesday, Nov. 15. The 2024 awards should be announced around the same time, depending on when the World Series concludes.

How does Cy Young voting work?

The Cy Young awards are given out based on the voting from members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America. Writers from NL cities vote for the NL Cy Young, and the same is true for AL writers. In total, there are 30 votes tied to each award, with one representative from each team.

Writers submit their ballots before the beginning of the posteason. They rank their top-five selections, and points are given in descending order (first place gets seven points, second place gets four, third place gets three, fourth place gets two, and fifth place gets one). The player with the most points wins. In the event of a tie, the award is shared. 

Who has won the most Cy Young awards?

Roger Clemens, seven, won more Cy Young awards than any other pitcher in MLB history. Randy Johnson, five, is second on the all-time list.

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