Red Sox vs. Orioles Win Probability: Who Will Win Tonight’s MLB Game? (Sept. 3)

LHP Jake Bennett and RHP Brandon Young square off today in the first game of a four-game set as we break down the Red Sox vs. Orioles win probability.

The Red Sox have a 53% win probability on prediction market apps, but that number should be lower considering how poorly Bennett has pitched in recent starts. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore is set for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX, MLB.TV).

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🏆 Who will win Red Sox vs. Orioles? Live MLB win probability

The Red Sox have a 53% win probability, and more than $500,000 has already been traded in the market. Boston's win probability opened at 51% Monday night, and money has come in on the Red Sox as liquidity has increased. Yes contracts on Boston are available at 54¢, with more than $351,000 in liquidity at that price.

Boston is coming off a 2-1 series loss against the Mariners at Fenway Park. They wrapped up the set with an 8-3 loss Wednesday. Roman Anthony hit a solo shot in the seventh inning, but the Red Sox still trailed by six runs at that point and had just a 1.3% win probability, per ESPN Analytics.

The Orioles dropped two of three games against the Rockies in Denver from Monday through Wednesday. They lost the finale 6-5 in 11 innings, despite having a 92.9% win probability while leading 3-2 with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning. Luis Robert Jr. drove in a team-high two runs with a double in the third.

My prediction: Orioles win (47¢). The market is underreacting to how poorly Bennett has pitched lately. He has allowed three or more earned runs in six of his last seven starts. Meanwhile, Young has allowed two or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Red Sox vs. Orioles?

Pete Alonso has the highest home run probability at 23%. He hasn't homered in seven straight games, but he did hit nine in August.

Wilyer Abreu has the second-highest home run probability at 20%. Abreu also hasn't homered in a while (five straight games), but he had a 12-game stretch where he hit six home runs from Aug. 2-15. Anthony has the third-highest home run chance at 16%, followed by Gunnar Henderson (11%), Ceddanne Rafaela (10%), and Caleb Durbin (8%).

My prediction: Pete Alonso to hit a home run (23¢). Alonso has a team-high 32 home runs this season and was slashing .333/.407/.619 in August. He has a .617 expected slugging percentage against fastballs, Bennett's most-used pitch type (59.8% usage) against right-handed hitters. For more home run analysis, see the rest of my home run predictions today.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Red Sox vs. Orioles?

More than $125,000 in volume has cleared in this market, with traders projecting a 45.2% chance of a first-inning run. If you're looking to buy Yes contracts at 46¢, you can instantly get more than $5,000 filled.

The Red Sox have had a first-inning run scored in 52% of their games, while the Orioles have seen a first-inning run in 43% of theirs. Bennett has allowed a first-inning run in just one of his 16 starts, while Young hasn't allowed one in five straight starts.

My prediction: No run in the first inning (55¢). Bennett has a 1.13 ERA with a 0.63 WHIP in the first inning, and Young has been dominant early on in recent starts. At this price, I can only look toward the NRFI. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our NRFIs today from our MLB expert LJ Blut.

🔢 Red Sox vs. Orioles confirmed lineups

Updated as of 5:45 p.m. ET.

📊 Red Sox vs. Orioles win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Red Sox vs. Orioles

• Date: Thursday, Sept. 3
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Baltimore)
• TV: FOX
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Red Sox starter: Jake Bennett (9-6, 3.27 ERA)
• Orioles starter: Brandon Young (9-3, 3.38 ERA)