MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds (Thursday, Sept. 3)
My MLB home run picks are coming off a profitable night Wednesday, and we're looking to keep that momentum rolling. My home run predictions today feature Dominic Canzone, Jonathan Aranda, and Enrique Hernandez, who all have favorable pitching matchups and should be able to take advantage on a short Thursday slate.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Sept. 3
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Dominic Canzone to homer (+475 via Hard Rock Bet) | 0.42u β 2u | Perkins throws a wide range of pitches to LHH, and Canzone is slugging .406 or higher against each pitch type. |
| Jonathan Aranda to homer (+480 via FanDuel) | 0.42u β 2u | Aranda has a .444 xSLG vs. fastballs, which Quantrill throws 65.5% of the time vs. LHH. |
| Enrique Hernandez to homer (+550 via BetMGM) | 0.36u β 2u | Mathews throws 45.2% fastballs and 34.9% breaking balls to RHH, and Hernandez is slugging .400 and .500 against those pitch types, respectively. |
Total wagered: 1.2 units | Max profit: 6 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Dominic Canzone (+475)
Canzone has homered in two of his last six games and has a great pitching matchup today for this bet.
He faces A's right-hander Jack Perkins, who throws a wide range of pitches to left-handed hitters. Canzone doesn't have a glaring weakness, though, as he's slugging .562 against fastballs, .423 against breaking balls, and .406 against offspeed pitches.
Canzone has extra-base hits in three straight games, and that will likely continue today. Hard Rock Bet's +475 odds for Canzone to homer are the best available among the top MLB betting sites.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Check the Barrel Rate
Perkins ranks in the 26th percentile in barrel rate, while Canzone ranks in the 83rd percentile in the same stat as a hitter.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Jonathan Aranda (+480)
Aranda has homered in two of his last eight games and faces Rangers starter Cal Quantrill today. The Rangers right-hander throws fastballs 65.5% of the time to left-handed hitters, and Aranda has a .444 expected slugging percentage against that pitch type.
Quantrill allowed two home runs last Saturday against the Brewers, and if anyone on the Rays homers today, Aranda is the second-most likely option (behind Junior Caminero). Aranda to homer (+480) at FanDuel is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Enrique Hernandez (+550)
Hernandez hasn't homered in any of his last seven appearances, which is partly why we're getting such inflated odds on his chances to homer today.
Dodger Stadium will feature clear skies, comfortable temperatures, and a light breeze blowing out, and Hernandez will go against Cardinals rookie Quinn Mathews. The Cardinals left-hander throws 45.2% fastballs and 34.9% breaking balls to right-handed hitters, and Hernandez is slugging .400 and .500 against those pitch types, respectively.
Hernandez to homer (+550) at BetMGM is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Dominic Canzone to homer
- Jonathan Aranda to homer
- Enrique Hernandez to homer
Best odds: +18942 via DraftKings
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-72-4 | -15.74 units β | -19.4% β |
| Player props | 11-57-3 | -10.59 units β | -24.8% β |
| Game props | 8-8 | -3.1 units β | -10.7% β |
| Moneylines | 1-1-1 | +0.11 units β | 1.7% β |
| Run lines | 0-1 | -2.36 units β | -100% β |
| Totals | 1-0 | +0.5 units β | 100% β |
| Parlays | 0-5 | -0.3 units β | -100% β |
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