Rays vs. Guardians Prediction & Picks: Game 5 ALCS Odds & Best Bets Today
The Rays evened the ALCS against the Guardians with an offensive breakout yesterday, and my Rays vs. Guardians prediction expects the road favorites to build on that performance while taking their first lead of the series tonight. My MLB picks also include Drew Rasmussen playing a key role in leading Tampa Bay to victory, while backing Junior Caminero as a great value play to go deep after yesterday's clutch hitting.
First pitch from Progressive Field in Cleveland is set for 5 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV), and the Rays are a -135 betting favorites.
Rays vs. Guardians picks & odds: ALCS Game 5
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| Pick | Best Odds | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Rays ML | -135 via FanDuel | 1 unit to win 0.74 units |
| Drew Rasmussen to record the win | +155 via bet365 | 1 unit to win 1.55 units |
| Junior Caminero to hit a home run | +525 via bet365 | 0.25 units to win 1.31 units |
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: +3.6 units
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Rays vs. Guardians prediction & best bet
Rays ML (-135)
Tampa Bay scored eight runs through the first three ALCS games. But after Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero combined to go just 2-for-21 with 10 strikeouts in that span, the duo combined for a 4-for-8 effort and three RBI in yesterday’s win. Give manager Kevin Cash credit for inserting sparkplug Chandler Simpson into the No. 3 hole after the top three spots in the Guardians lineup had gone a combined 5-for-34 with one RBI.
I’m also encouraged by Tampa Bay’s defense. Liam Hicks shut down Cleveland’s running game throwing out two base stealers in Game 3, while Victor Mesa Jr. had multiple outfield assists yesterday.
📡 SBR Edge: History on Tampa Bay's side
In all best-of-seven series that have been tied 2-2 under the current 2-3-2 format, the team playing on the road in Game 5 before going home in Games 6 and 7 has won the series 56% of the time (35 of 62).
Best Rays vs. Guardians player prop bet
Drew Rasmussen to record the win (+155)
Tampa Bay entered Game 1 having won 13 straight games in which Drew Rasmussen started, and he earned the win in a whopping 10 of those outings. He earned a hard-luck no decision in Game 1 after Cleveland won by scoring six runs over the final three innings, but the Rays had leads of 2-0 after the fifth inning and 2-1 entering the seventh.
Since the start of 2025 (min. 200 IP), Rasmussen has the fourth lowest opponent’s OPS (.575). And among those who have pitched a minimum of 500 innings since 2022, Rasmussen ranks fourth in ERA, sixth in xERA, 8th in FIP, seventh in opponent’s average, second in opponent’s OPS, and 10th in K:BB ratio.
Rasmussen is one of three pitchers to rank in the 75th percentile in strikeout percentage, walk percentage, hard-hit percentage, and barrel rate among qualified starters.
Rays vs. Guardians home run prediction
Junior Caminero to hit a home run (+525)
Junior Caminero leads MLB (min. 500 swings) with a 79.5 mph average bat speed, and has used that force to produce extra-base hits in two of his three hits in this series.
Among qualified third basemen, Caminero ranks third in batting average, first in home runs, first in RBI, second in runs scored, tied for fourth in on-base percentage, and first in slugging. He hit 20 of his 42 home runs on the road this season and is a threat to go deep against a collection of Guardians relievers he has likely already seen in this series.
There’s also a chance Cleveland’s Parker Messick starts to wear down after throwing 198 innings, well above his career-high of 138.1 last year.
Live Rays vs. Guardians odds
Rays vs. Guardians injuries
How to watch Rays vs. Guardians: ALCS Game 5
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026
- First pitch: 5 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Progressive Field (Cleveland)
- TV: TBS/truTV
- Rays starter: Drew Rasmussen (Postseason: 1-0, 1.29 ERA)
- Guardians starter: Parker Messick (Postseason: 0-2, 3.09 ERA)
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