Braves vs. Phillies Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (Friday, Sept. 4)

LHP Chris Sale and LHP Cristopher Sanchez square off today in the first game of a four-game set as we break down the Braves vs. Phillies win probability.

The Phillies have a 51% win probability on prediction market apps, but that number should be lower considering how well Sale has pitched recently. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia is set for 6:40 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited, MLB.TV).

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🏆 Who will win Braves vs. Phillies? Live MLB win probability

The Phillies have a 51% win probability, and more than $612,000 has already been traded in this market. The Braves' win probability opened at 51% Wednesday morning, but money has come in on the Phillies as liquidity has increased. Yes contracts on Philadelphia are available at 52¢, with more than $349,000 in liquidity at that price.

The Braves split a two-game series with the Nationals in Washington, D.C., from Tuesday to Wednesday, wrapping up the set with a 9-0 victory. Ronald Acuna Jr. hit a three-run home run in the seventh inning, becoming the fastest player in MLB to record 200 home runs and 200 stolen bases. The Braves are in first place in the NL East, four games ahead of the second-place Phillies.

The Phillies are coming off a 2-1 series win over the Diamondbacks in Phoenix from Monday to Wednesday. Philadelphia lost the finale 1-0, getting shut out for the first time since Aug. 11 (a 2-0 loss against the Cardinals in St. Louis). The loss snapped a six-game winning streak for the Phillies.

My prediction: Braves win (49¢). Both starting pitchers are in the top three of the NL Cy Young odds, but Sale has been better than Sanchez recently. Sale has posted a 1.76 ERA with a 0.76 WHIP since the All-Star break, while Sanchez has a 2.25 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP in that span.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Braves vs. Phillies?

Kyle Schwarber leads the NL with 40 home runs, so it's no surprise that he has the highest home run probability at 18%. He hasn't homered in six straight games after hitting three home runs over five games from Aug. 22-26.

Acuna and Matt Olson have the second-highest home run probability at 14%. Austin Riley has the fourth-highest probability, followed by Bryce Harper (12%), Ozzie Albies (11%) and Trea Turner (11%). More players will likely be available in this market closer to first pitch.

My prediction: Matt Olson to hit a home run (14¢). While Olson's batting average was low in August (.226), his power was on full display. He slugged .500 with eight home runs last month, and now he faces Sanchez, who he's already homered twice against in 20 career at-bats. For more home run analysis, see the rest of my home run predictions today.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Braves vs. Phillies?

More than $62,000 in volume has cleared in this market, with traders projecting a 38% chance of a first-inning run. If you're looking to buy Yes contracts at 39¢, you can instantly get more than $6,000 filled.

The Braves have had a first-inning run scored in 49% of their games, while the Phillies have seen a first-inning run in 53% of theirs. Sale hasn't allowed a first-inning run in 13 of his last 14 starts, while Sanchez hasn't allowed one in eight of his last nine starts.

My prediction: No run in the first inning (62¢). At this price, the only way I can look is toward the NRFI. Sale has a 1.13 ERA across 24 first innings, while Sanchez has been dominant early in recent starts. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our NRFIs today from our MLB expert LJ Blut.

📊 Braves vs. Phillies win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Braves vs. Phillies

• Date: Friday, Sept. 4
• First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited, MLB.TV
• Braves starter: Chris Sale (13-9, 2.06 ERA)
• Phillies starter: Cristopher Sanchez (16-4, 2.52 ERA)