MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds (Friday, Sept. 4)
After a profitable Wednesday, my MLB home run picks went 0-for-3 Thursday. Good thing we have a loaded 16-game slate Friday to rebound. My home run predictions today include Jordan Walker, Ben Rice and Will Smith, as all three have favorable pitching matchups.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Sept. 4
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Walker to homer (+320 via FanDuel) | 0.63u β 2u | Feltner ranks in the 8th percentile in barrel rate, while Walker ranks in the 89th percentile in the same stat. |
| Ben Rice to homer (+436 via DraftKings) | 0.46u β 2u | Rice is slugging .627 against fastballs, which Buehler throws 63.9% of the time vs. LHH. |
| Will Smith to homer (+475 via BetMGM) | 0.42u β 2u | Smith has a .606 xSLG vs. fastballs, Kent's most-used pitch type vs. RHH. |
Total wagered: 1.51 units | Max profit: 6 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Jordan Walker (+320)
Not only is Walker playing at Coors Field today, the most hitter-friendly ballpark in MLB, but he also has a favorable pitching matchup.
The Rockies will start Ryan Feltner, who ranks in the eighth percentile in barrel rate (10.5%). This is great news for Walker home run bettors, as Walker ranks in the 89th percentile (13.5%) in the same stat. With the thin air in Denver and Feltner on the mound for the Rockies, these odds should be shorter.
FanDuel's +320 odds for Walker to homer are the best available among the top MLB betting sites.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Feltner's Recent Struggles
Feltner has allowed 12 home runs across his last 11 starts, and Walker has the shortest odds among all Cardinals players to homer today.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Ben Rice (+436)
Rice hasn't homered in seven straight games, so we're getting slightly inflated odds on the Yankees slugger.
He faces Padres right-hander Walker Buehler today, who throws fastballs 63.9% of the time to left-handed hitters. Rice is slugging .627 against that pitch type, and each of his last two home runs has come against four-seamers.
He's slashing .256/.363/.553 against righties and should continue to have success today with clear skies and comfortable temperatures in San Diego. Rice to homer (+436) at DraftKings is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Will Smith (+475)
Smith missed some time due to injury, but he's been back long enough that his power should start returning.
He has a .606 expected slugging percentage against fastballs, and Nationals left-hander Jackson Kent throws fastballs 46.1% of the time to right-handed hitters, making it his most-used pitch type in that split.
Smith is slugging .459 at home (compared to .274 on the road), so he's in a decent spot to hit a home run today. Smith to homer (+475) at BetMGM is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Jordan Walker to homer
- Ben Rice to homer
- Will Smith to homer
Best odds: +12010 via DraftKings
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