Reds vs. Dodgers Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (Monday, Sept. 7)
RHP Chase Burns and RHP Emmet Sheehan square off today in the first game of a three-game set as we break down the Reds vs. Dodgers win probability.
The Dodgers have a 62% win probability on prediction market apps, but that number should be lower with Burns on the mound for the Reds. First pitch from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles is set for 9:10 p.m. ET (MLB.TV).
➡️ Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for the 2026 season.
🏆 Who will win Reds vs. Dodgers? Live MLB win probability
💰️ Kalshi promo code
Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for $35 in bonuses by signing up today. Market subject to change.
The Dodgers have a 62% win probability, and more than $506,000 has already been traded in this market. Los Angeles' win probability opened at 63% Monday morning, but money has come in on Cincinnati as liquidity has increased. Yes contracts on the Dodgers are available at 63¢, with more than $60,000 in liquidity at that price.
The Reds are coming off three straight series wins, most recently taking two of three games against the Brewers in Cincinnati from Friday to Sunday. They won the finale 12-8, with Elly De La Cruz hitting a two-run homer in the fourth inning and driving in four runs on the day. The Reds are in fifth place in the NL Central and are 6½ games out of the final NL Wild Card spot.
The Dodgers are coming off a three-game sweep of the Nationals in Los Angeles. They won the finale 7-5 behind Mookie Betts' go-ahead three-run homer in the eighth inning. The Dodgers' win probability was as low as 79.4%, per ESPN Analytics, when they were trailing 4-1 in the fourth inning. L.A. is in first place in the NL West, 10½ games ahead of the second-place Diamondbacks.
My prediction: Reds win (38¢). The Reds are 6-3 in their last nine games, and those games were against the Cubs, Padres, and Brewers. With Cincinnati sending out Burns, who ranks in the 90th percentile in both chase percentage and whiff percentage, I have a hard time believing it only has a 38% chance of winning.
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Reds vs. Dodgers?
More than $17,000 has cleared in this market, with traders projecting a 47% chance of a first-inning run. If you're looking to buy Yes contracts at 48¢, you can instantly get more than $23,000 filled.
The Reds have had a first-inning run scored in 53.1% of their games, while the Dodgers have seen a first-inning run in 49.7% of theirs. Burns and Sheehan have both allowed a first-inning run in each of their last two starts.
My prediction: Yes run in the first inning (48¢). While I don't expect Burns to help much (he has a 1.73 ERA in the first inning this season), Sheehan has struggled early in recent starts. He ranks in the seventh percentile in barrel percentage, so all it takes is one swing, and we're cashing on the outcome.
📊 Reds vs. Dodgers win expectancy
Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.
| Team | Win expectancy | Opened | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | 38% | 37% | ↑ 1% |
| Dodgers | 62% | 63% | ↓ 1% |
📺 How to watch Reds vs. Dodgers
- Date: Monday, Sept. 7
- First pitch: 9:10 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles)
- TV: MLB.TV
- Reds starter: Chase Burns (15-3, 2.79 ERA)
- Dodgers starter: Emmet Sheehan (4-8, 5.29 ERA)
Related Articles
