Genius Sports CEO Sees Great Opportunity in Kalshi and Polymarket Partnerships

Genius Sports founder and CEO Mark Locke used the company's second-quarter earnings call to explain how the firm's new agreements with Kalshi and Polymarket integrate with its long-term strategy.

Locke told investors that the two deals illustrate how official sports data has become essential for the operators of the best prediction markets, describing the arrangements as the base for a larger buildout of content, services, and geographic reach over time. He compared the approach directly to how Genius Sports built its position in traditional sports betting, saying the company intends to apply the same playbook to the prediction market space.

The partnerships with Kalshi and Polymarket give each platform access to Genius Sports data for settling sports-related contracts, along with integrity monitoring tools. Locke pointed to soccer leagues such as Serie A and Liga MX as examples of properties already moving into prediction markets, and said he expects that shift to continue across more competitions and territories. He framed the trend as a meaningful growth opportunity for Genius Sports rather than a one-time deal.

Together with CFO Bryan Castellani, the CEO told analysts that Genius Sports had already generated notable revenue from prediction markets in the second quarter, even before the Kalshi and Polymarket agreements formally took effect. Castellani said he expects that revenue stream to keep climbing gradually as the sector matures.

The Chief Exec separately connected the momentum to the company's recent acquisition of media network Legend, calling prediction markets one of the clearest early examples of cross-selling opportunities between the two businesses since the deal closed.

Q2 results beat guidance, boost full-year outlook

The CEO’s comments came alongside broader financial results that topped the company's own targets for the quarter. Genius Sports reported group revenue of $196 million for the three months ended June 30, well above its guidance of $185 million.

Group adjusted EBITDA reached $53 million against a projection of $45 million, and the resulting margin of 26.9% came in 258 basis points higher than what guidance had implied.

Genius Sports posted a group net loss of $77 million for the period. It attributed the loss primarily to one-time transaction-related expenses tied to its acquisition of Legend. 

Based on the quarter's performance, the company raised its full-year 2026 guidance, moving group revenue expectations to a range of $1.005 billion to $1.025 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance to between $285 million and $295 million.

At the midpoint, that new EBITDA target implies a group adjusted EBITDA margin of roughly 28.6%.

Locke said the improved outlook reflects growing advertiser demand for the company's combination of official data and audience reach, continued strength in its core betting business, and the early contribution of prediction markets as a new growth channel. 

He added that the results mark the first full quarter reflecting the combined business following the Legend acquisition, and that the integration is already delivering measurable benefits across revenue, profitability, and cash generation.