Prediction Markets Produce Solid Volume at Start of NFL Season
The start of the NFL season has been a boom for the emerging world of prediction market apps. According to numbers provided by Aldrin Research, an estimated $24.5 billion dollars was traded between Sept. 9 and Sept. 18.
And that number wasn't spread very far. Approximately 90% of that figure was traded on just two of the best prediction market apps.
Kalshi reportedly handled $19.5 billion of that total figure, or about 79.5% of the market. Polymarket US accounted for $2.6 billion, about 10.7%. That means the field of competitors split a little under 10% of the remaining market.
Those numbers are even tighter for the first weekend of NFL action, with Kalshi garnering $4.89 billion of the $5.83 billion handled. The majority of that figure consisted of combination contracts, where outcomes are bundled together, similar to parlay-style bets we see on the best sports betting sites.
A crowded fight for the remainder
DraftKings' in-house exchange was a distant third, but led the trailing pack. DKeX reportedly saw $657 million in trading volume (a market share of about 2.7%).
Crypto.com ($472 million, 1.9% market share), Novig ($449 million, 1.8% market share), and Rothera ($444 million, 1.8% market share) also clocked in with significant volume but well off the pace.
Some operators, such as Underdog, are responsible for some of the volume reported by the exchanges above. They function as hybrid front-ends, routing customer order flow to sites such as Kalshi and Crypto.com.
Writing on the shifting dynamic between traditional sportsbooks and prediction exchanges, market analysts at World Casino Directory observed: "The college football and NFL figures demonstrate the scale already being reached during major sporting weekends... Football is concentrating prediction-market activity around the same events and combo-style products that drive sportsbook engagement."
Legal fights rage on
The New Jersey sports betting market famously helped overturn the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) in 2018, paving the way for state-by-state sports betting nationwide. Once again, the state is looking to lead the way in shaping nationwide gambling jurisprudence. After a Third Circuit ruling shielded Kalshi from state gaming laws, the state has asked the Supreme Court to settle the issue. This path seemed especially likely after the Ninth Circuit ruled that the issue fell under state jurisdiction.
In the Great Lakes State, Kalshi has begun blocking Michigan users from placing sports-related trades on its platform after a state judge ruled against the prediction market company in an ongoing legal dispute. Ingham County Circuit Court Judge Rosemarie Aquilina issued a temporary restraining order on June 29 that bars the New York-based company from offering sports event contracts to residents in the Michigan sports betting market while the underlying lawsuit works its way through the court system.
In Kentucky, the operator is also running into roadblocks. Speaking to The Washington Times, Kentucky Attorney General Russell Coleman rejected the argument that event contracts are merely financial tools: "They dressed up gambling in financial language, but the underlying product is unchanged. We want them to be regulated. We want the ability to protect our people." The AG has rejected Kalshi's attempts to move the issue out of local courts.
