Path to GOATness: When Will Caitlin Clark Become the WNBA's Greatest of All Time?

The professional sports landscape is deep into its Phenom Phase at the moment.

On the diamond, Pittsburgh Pirates hurler Paul Skenes – the first overall pick in the 2023 MLB draft – has taken the fast track to stardom on the strength of one of the most devastating fastballs in the game. On the ice, Connor Bedard of the Chicago Blackhawks showed glimpses as a rookie of the massive potential that has many tabbing him the Next Big Thing.

And yet, it's on the hardcourt where North American sports fans have seen the biggest shift. On the men's side, 7-foot-4 French revelation Victor Wembanyama made an immediate and dramatic impact, putting together one of the greatest freshman seasons in league history with a dizzying skill set the league has never before seen in a player that big.

And if you can believe it, we might be on the verge of witnessing the biggest game-changer of all. And her name, if you're somehow still unfamiliar, is Caitlin Clark.

The 6-foot guard is having a sensational rookie season that has her as the runaway favorite for WNBA Rookie of the Year. Clark, listed at -2000 to win the award, added to her impressive list of accomplishments July 17 by recording a league-record 19 assists in the Indiana Fever's 101-93 loss to the Dallas Wings.

The Fever made Clark the No. 1 pick in the 2024 WNBA Draft in mid-April – and like fellow first-overall draft choices Holliday, Bedard, and Wembanyama, Clark has made a cannonball-like splash from the moment she hit the court. She's averaging 17.1 points, a league-best 8.2 assists and 5.8 rebounds while making 71 3-pointers through 26 games.

Given her unmatched pedigree, and how perfectly her game is suited to the 2024 version of the WNBA (and likely well beyond), it isn't a matter of if Caitlin Clark will be the WNBA's greatest of all time, but when – and we're here to answer that question.

*Courtney Vandersloot is expected to pass Bird in 2027/2028

Scoring Queen? Give her 12 years

Real ones know: Phoenix Mercury legend Diana Taurasi is the WNBA's uncontested all-time scoring leader, and catching her will be a huge task for even the most gifted player.

Taurasi, playing in her 21st WNBA season, has racked up 10,447 points and counting – and while she's competing this year as a 42-year-old, she's still capable of filling the net at will (averaging 16.1 points so far this season).

The No. 1 overall pick in 2004 won't be easy to track down. But Clark is by far the player best suited to do it.

Clark has every shot in the manual. She darts to the hoop like a seasoned pro and can finish with either hand. Her mid-range game is the stuff of nightmares for opposing defenses, even though she doesn't rely on it nearly as much as she did as a freshman or sophomore.

But her biggest edge by far is what she can do from beyond the arc.

The WNBA game has closely mirrored its NBA counterpart when it comes to the dramatic expansion of the 3-point shot. Over the past eight years alone, WNBA teams have gone from averaging 14.1 long range attempts to taking more than 22 3-point shots per game.

Clark happens to be the all-time leader in 3-pointers made among women's collegiate players, highlighted by an NCAA-record 201 makes in 39 games with Iowa this past season. She ranks tied for third in the WNBA in made 3s so far as a rookie, and here's the scary part: Her 32.7% success rate from deep has plenty of room to grow.

Combine Clark's delirious scoring prowess with a 40-game WNBA schedule, and it's well within reason to expect her to regularly score 1,000 points per season in her prime. Assuming Taurasi has one or two seasons at most remaining, and factoring in the odd missed game from Clark, I expect her to become the league's all-time scoring leader sometime in Year 12.

The assists crown will also be hers

Clark's other-worldly ability to fill a basket is her calling card – but she is also one of the most prolific passers in the history of women's college basketball, and that skill has transferred nicely to the top women's basketball league on the planet.

Clark left the Hawkeyes with the third-most assists in women's NCAA history, behind only Suzie McConnell and Andrea Nagy. No. 4 on that list, Gonzaga legend Courtney Vandersloot, enters this season second on the all-time WNBA assists ledger, 460 behind Sue Bird.

It's possible that Vandersloot, who just turned 35 and is averaging 4.6 assists per game in 2024, could pass Bird in 2027 or 2028 if she remains active and healthy.

For Clark to have a chance at passing either of these legends, she'll need consistency and longevity. She largely controls the first of these; with six double-digit assist performances in her last nine games, she is on a whole other level as an elite passing threat.

Clark has also benefited from a new strength and conditioning approach going into her final season at Iowa which saw her put on eight pounds of muscle that has enabled her to absorb contact and physicality more easily without tiring. That improved fitness has kept her on the court – she averages more than 35 minutes per game as a rookie with the Fever – and should give her ample opportunity to take the assist title.

It might take longer than other records on this list, but look for Clark to become the WNBA's No. 1 dropper of dimes sometime in Year 15.

The 3-point record will come sooner

Three-point records are for chuckers – and again, we see Taurasi gracing the top of the list. She doesn't just own this record, she has obliterated the competition. Her 1,418 made 3s are good for a 417-basket advantage over runner-up Bird. No one else has made more than 906.

As with the league scoring record, Clark is the No. 1 candidate to usurp the current leader if her health cooperates. Her 5.1 made 3-pointers per game in her final NCAA season tell you all you need to know about her long-range abilities – and she has already transformed the Fever, who rank 10th in 3-point attempts after placing 10th last season.

The deep shot is a fixture in WNBA games, and Clark's prowess from beyond the arc makes this mark the most vulnerable of all. Look for Clark to be anointed the league's all-time 3-point record holder sometime in her 10th season (if not a year earlier).

Clark is this generation's Steph Curry – with a hint of Kobe and MJ

NBA comps for WNBA players might seem like apples and oranges, but hear me out.

I see a lot of Steph Curry in Caitlin Clark (and not just because both players are capable of knocking down 35-footers as easily as you or I make a sandwich.) Curry's overall game has revolutionized how professional basketball is played – and while Clark is a little later to the party where that's concerned, her skill set will change the WNBA game forever.

Sure, she can knock down those logo heaves. But she's also an incredible scorer from just about anywhere on the floor, and can throw seeing-eye passes that will make even the most ardent critics swoon. And she's a voracious rebounder for a guard, ranking in the 97th percentile in defensive rebounding rate last season according to CBB Analytics.

She's also a fiery competitor, as evidenced in the passion she exuded while leading the Hawkeyes to a spot in the Women's March Madness final (where they ultimately lost to a South Carolina team that completed an unbeaten season). And to that end, it won't be surprising to see her compared more favorably to Kobe Bryant or Michael Jordan. Her skill makes her a sensation – but her drive is what will make her the GOAT.

Whoever you decide on as Clark's NBA resemblance, one thing is for certain: The 22-year-old is a once-in-a-generation talent, and is on a clear trajectory to become the greatest WNBA player of all-time. And based on my record-breaking projections for her, we should be crowning her the GOAT by her 35th birthday.