The race in the swing states is starting to tighten, but Joe Biden and the Democratic Party are still in good shape to beat the politics odds in Michigan.
All across America, the numbers show Joe Biden and the Democratic Party widening their lead over incumbent Donald Trump and the Republicans for this November’s U.S. presidential election. That’s what the polls and the politics odds say, at least. But what if we told you that Trump and the GOP were gaining ground in some important swing states – the same ones that swung the 2016 election in their favor
It’s a fact. The last time we checked in with the four key “purple” states on the map, the Democrats had built a healthy lead in Michigan and Wisconsin, plus a decent advantage in Pennsylvania and Arizona. The Dems have improved since then in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, but the other two states have narrowed, even while Biden’s odds there have gotten shorter. Is he still the right candidate for your politics picks? Let’s take a closer look at the Mitten State and see what’s up.
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Michigan still looks pretty good for Biden at this point. According to FiveThirtyEight, his advantage over Trump since our last visit has slipped from plus-9.4 to plus-9.1. Meanwhile, at BetOnline, the Democrats have moved from –300 favorites to –400. That’s a bit strange.
As always, the betting market doesn’t map perfectly onto the polls. Legend has it there are more Trump bettors per capita than Trump voters (wrangling the data for this is a little tricky), so we still might have some betting value with the Dems taking Michigan. If only we could take that plus-9.1 figure and turn it into an implied percentage.
Or we could just check in with our friendly friends at The Economist. Their model has Biden leading Trump by 8.6 percentage points in Michigan, with a 91-percent chance of winning the state. Run 91 percent through the infallible SBR Odds Converter, and you get –1011 out the other side. That’s a spicy meatball.
The Economist also sees the gap between Biden and Trump closing to 7.8 points by Election Day. Also, it’s pretty much a given that Trump will fare better at the voting booth than he is in the polls; no doubt there are plenty of people who would rather not voice their support of Trump to anyone asking questions. But if you have any confidence in The Economist and their model – and the Electoral College, for that matter – Biden is still your huckleberry at –400.