It has been a while since bettors could latch on to some predictable US Political Betting trends but this week greets us with long-awaited and seemingly entrenched certainty – that the Trump magic seems to be wearing off.
Last week saw President Trump continuing to “recover from” and subsequently downplay the coronavirus crisis despite he and 30+ White House Staffers testing positive. The truth is that COVID seems to be entering a new phase in the country as the weather gets colder.
We also witnessed the President refusing to abide by altered Election Commission rules for the second Debate. While also, failing to denounce his apparent backers threatening to kidnap and kill Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
With scandals in tow, President Trump hits the Campaign Trail where he is most comfortable. This despite concerns and secrecy about the state of his COVID-19 diagnosis. Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday are confirmed rally-stops for the President with rumors of appearances every day this upcoming week.
The question remains – Will Trump rallies help him as they have in the past? Or will his perceived COVID-recklessness further sink his Betting Odds for a second term?
The SS Trump Appears to Be Sinking
It hasn’t been a great month for Donald Trump – to say the least. Self-made scandals and a positive COVID-19 test have led to a serious slide in both the Election Polls and Odds. Let’s start with the Polls.
The average of the National Polls for President has consistently shown an average deficit of around 10%-11% for Trump. Most Polls have Joe Biden over the 50% mark, which is a key number among pollsters and Campaign staff. Biden holds an average 48%-40% in Michigan, 51%-41% in Wisconsin, and 51%-44% in Pennsylvania – states that Trump won in 2016 and desperately needs again, in order to stay in power. Trump is also playing defense, according to the Polls in Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, and even Georgia.
Now for the Election Odds. On September 29, Donald Trump was EVEN Odds to win a second term according to Bovada. However, it has gone South for him since then. On September 30, the day after the first Debate, Trump slipped to +120, on October 2, he was +160 and he officially bottomed out yesterday when he was listed by Bovada as a +170 underdog. Joe Biden is currently at -200.
What Else Could Go Wrong?
COVID is spiking and as recent polls suggest. Voters are hyper-focused on the Virus and how it is affecting their everyday lives. While Trump claims COVID-19 is going away, the reality facing Americans every day suggests otherwise.
Dr. Anthony Fauci has called the Presidential Campaign out for “misrepresenting” his comments for use in a Political ad. Republican Senators, when questioned about their alliance with Donald Trump, have been less-than-enthusiastic in their support of the President. And Trump’s criticism of Bill Barr for not indicting good-old Hillary and Joe Biden threatens to erode support from those previously unwilling to speak out.
Battle Grounds Backing Biden?
We are all constantly reminded that it is the Electoral College that determines who takes power in January and news on that front isn’t favoring Trump either. Arizona has Biden a -185 favorite to take the state with Trump +140, Florida has Biden -145 to Trump’s +110, Michigan has Biden -400 and Trump +275, Biden -450 in Nevada to Trump +300, North Carolina has Biden -145 to Trump’s +110 and Biden a near 3-1 favorite in Pennsylvania.
Translation – Biden’s path toward an Electoral College victory seems to be paved with voter sentiment baked in with three weeks to go until the Election.
By the end of Tuesday, nearly 10 million will have cast their vote in the US. Meaning that Trump will have a lot of ground to make up among the shrinking number of citizens yet to have registered their ballot.
Those that placed their bets on a Democratic win November 3 at the end of September when Biden was -110 may well be in for a decent payday. Value in US Election Betting may be a thing of the past. Unless Trump pulls an upset similar to the one we saw in 2016.