Shohei Ohtani Odds & Bets for 2024: Best MLB Futures Props With Summer Approaching

The 2024 MLB season is well underway, and Shohei Ohtani is putting on a hitting clinic during his first campaign with the Los Angeles Dodgers, as we round up the best odds on his top futures bets to consider. 

Many wondered what would happen if Shohei Ohtani ever spent an entire season focusing only on hitting rather than also pitching every fifth day. Well, in his first year with the World Series odds-favorite Los Angeles Dodgers, we're seeing just how ridiculous a full-time designated-hitter Ohtani is. 

Ohtani's wRC+ this season is 190, 10 points higher than his previous career best. His batting average is .336, more than 30 points better than his .304 mark last year.

He doesn't play any defense, and he's already accrued a ridiculous 3.0 fWAR in just 53 games. For reference, he owns the 18th-worst defensive rating above average among all qualified hitters as a result. That, of course, means his offensive rating is the best in baseball.

The slugger has cut down on his strikeout rate, and he's running faster and harder than he did last season when he won AL MVP. Ohtani ranks in the 100th percentile in three major statistical categories and the 99th percentile in three others.

So, with all of that, what do his futures markets look like now compared to when the season began?

Well, we scoured the odds at our best MLB betting sites to find the best bets for Shohei Ohtani in 2024, and there are still plenty of exciting options.

Shohei Ohtani props for 2024

NL MVP

(NL MVP odds as of June 3; check out our full look at the MLB MVP odds)

After the Seoul Series concluded one week before MLB's official Opening Day, you could bet Ohtani to win NL MVP at a price as long as +950 via FanDuel.

Now, despite the fact his teammate, Mookie Betts, is putting together an incredible season of his own and trading as the favorite, the longest odds for Ohtani to win NL MVP are +550.

Ohtani ranks second in the NL in fWAR, behind only Betts' 3.3. His 180 wRC+ is the third-best in the league, and he's in the top 10 in various other hitting statistics.

As previously mentioned, Ohtani's batted-ball data is off the charts. His xBA of .338 is 16 points higher than his actual average, and his xwOBA of .449 is higher than his fourth-best wOBA of .422. This tells us that the best hitter in baseball through roughly 50 games somehow has room to regress positively.

The one thing that will hurt Ohtani's MVP campaign is the fact that he only hits, while Betts plays a premium position as shortstop for the Dodgers. However, we can see that's been worth only 0.4 more wins above replacement so far, so Ohtani really hasn't been that much less "valuable" than Betts has.

I bet Ohtani to win NL MVP  a couple of weeks ago at +350, so I would recommend hopping on this +550 price.

Home run leader odds

(MLB home run leader odds as of June 3)

Ohtani is roughly the fourth-biggest favorite in this market, often listed alongside Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Tucker, and Marcell Ozuna. They're all priced far longer than favorite Aaron Judge.

Ohtani ranks fourth among qualified hitters in average exit velocity, third in max exit velocity, second in balls hit at 95-plus mph, fourth in hard-hit percentage, and third in barrel rate. When you pair that with his 12.5-degree launch angle, that equals home runs in bunches.

The hitting machine also has the benefit of playing his home games at Dodger Stadium. Though it's often anecdotally considered a pitcher's park, Dodger Stadium is regularly one of the most home-run-friendly ballparks in baseball. This year, it is No. 1 in that category with June approaching.

Would I recommend betting against Aaron Judge to lead the league in home runs? It's tough because, you know, that's his thing. But if I did bet on someone to do it, that person would be Ohtani.

To join 30-30 club

This market is at only bet365 among our best sports betting sites, but it does thankfully offer both a Yes and No option. 

Yes is priced at +120, which are the second-shortest odds offered on that side behind only Elly De La Cruz's +100 price. Meanwhile, No is trading at -150, which is also a decent price.

We can look at the projections to determine whether we think this is a good bet. The 30 home runs shouldn't be an issue, as he's projected to hit 40-plus total by most models. The steals are a bit lower, with Steamer projecting him to finish with 29 and THE BAT X projecting 30 on the dot.

I bet this when it was at +155, and crunched the numbers at that point.

The fact that there are two variables makes this a trickier bet, but the implied probability associated with these +155 odds is 39%. So, if we're to believe that there is a near-100% chance he hits 30 or more homers (health permitting, which you have to assume when making these bets, or else the answer is always "no"), and he's projected to finish with 27-30 steals, I'd say these odds are providing us with some solid value.

In comparison, we previously mentioned De La Cruz's +100 price. He already has 30 steals, which is likely the reason those odds are so short. However, he's projected to finish with only 23-25 home runs, and his batted-ball data - a low launch angle of 8.0 and 76th percentile average exit velocity - suggests he'll be relatively fortunate to hit the top end of that. 

When De La Cruz was trading at -110, I said Ohtani probably should, too. But in reality, both should be hovering around the +125 range, and we've gotten closer to that point.

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