To nobody’s surprise, it was an insane week in the US Election Betting. The last seven days have been dominated by campaign stops, typical attacks by the Candidates, and revelations from yet another “tell-all” book. One in which the President is actually on record admitting he knew the gravity of the COVID-19 dangers as early as February.
The beginning of the week saw the start of an odds slide for President Trump. The end of the week shows that slide continuing, albeit slightly. It’s a question of how prolonged and how deep that slide will be. After all, the spotlight on Bob Woodward’s revelations will only grow brighter, and Trump’s defenses will likely grow more desperate.
How it all affects the US Election Odds is anyone’s guess but line movement is sure to follow what has been another consequential week in US Election Betting. Let’s take a closer look.
About That Book
Bob Woodward’s wide-ranging book “Rage” has caused quite a stir in the Election race, and it hasn’t even been released yet. Taped on-the-record interviews with the President have been revealing, to say the least, and more are bound to be released closer to the official launch of the book.
Trump’s own words seem to suggest he knew the gravity of the COVID-19 threat but failed to relay them to the American public in an attempt to quash any “panic”. While the President calls it a strategy of calm, many are calling his “downplaying” of the virus outright lies. Something that may sway some voters and bettors as we head into the US Election Betting stretch drive.
Revelations that Trump’s former defense secretary Gen. Jim Mattis thought he was “dangerous” and “unfit” will certainly open a few more eyes, even among Republicans. Former Director of National Intelligence Dan Coates saying that Trump may actually be compromised by Russia and Vladimir Putin should, in theory, put a stain on the incumbent President.
Of course, Trump is denying some of Woodward’s findings and dismissed the well-respected author’s claims as a “political hack job”.
Has the Bad Press Affected the Odds?
Last week at this time we saw the Betting Odds going against the rash of Political Polls available. Trump was actually the betting favorite despite the series of scandals that were, and still are, plaguing the Presidency. At the beginning of this week, Joe Biden had reclaimed a -105 favorite-status.
At the end of this week, the same sportsbook, BetOnline saw Biden stretch his Betting edge, supporting the notion that the news from Bob Woodward’s book, plus Trump’s recent remarks about the military, plus the President’s inability to deliver a cohesive COVID strategy have hurt him. Biden ends the week as a -130 favorite with Trump slipping to a +110 dog at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).
Swing State Status
The 2020 US Election Betting is closer than the Polls or even the Odds dictate. It’s all about the Electoral College and how the Swing States vote in November. Some new Polls and reporting have Biden still leading in a few battlegrounds with his lead about the same as it was prior to the Republican National Convention, where Trump was expecting a bump.
In an average of the polls of 5 swing states, across Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the former vice president holds a 49% to 45% edge over the Republican incumbent, the survey released Wednesday found.
Biden is, at top sports betting sites, the -130 Betting favorite in Arizona at present, a slight +120 underdog in Florida, a rather large -225 favorite in Michigan, a +120 underdog in North Carolina, -165 fave in Pennsylvania, and -165 favorite in Wisconsin.
Translation – Donald Trump has some work to do this next two months if he hopes to maintain support in states he won in 2016 and ultimately gain a second term.
Weekly Peek at the Props
To further what was just discussed in the last section, the Electoral College Betting Odds favor Joe Biden. Biden sits at -130, while Donald Trump is at +110. While there doesn’t seem to be a ton of value in bets on the “race to 270”, the Electoral College Odds are another sign that Donald Trump is slipping during the most consequential time of the campaign.
The popular vote still favors the Democrats – it hasn’t changed all that much the last week or so. The Democrats are still -500 to garner the most votes in November while the Republicans are +330 underdogs.
Control of the Senate has swung to the Democrats over the last few weeks. Betting on the Republicans to retake the Senate all of a sudden looks like decent value – the Republicans were once favorite but now find themselves at Even-Odds according to Bovada (visit our Bovada Review).