Politics Odds: Swing States Swing Towards Biden

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As Donald Trump’s politics odds sink for November’s election, Joe Biden is gaining “Joe-mentum” in the most important purple states on the electoral map.

Whatever your politics may be, there’s no question that Donald Trump is trending in the wrong direction for November’s U.S. presidential election. As my colleague Nikki Adams pointed out this past Tuesday, Trump has moved from favorite to underdog on the politics odds board, with Joe Biden taking the lead; at press time, Biden is available as high as –170 to prevent Trump from winning a second term. In theory, you can bet both sides of this election and make a profit. There’s a narrow window of arbitrage you can try to squeeze through, with Bovada posting Biden at –140 and both Bookmaker and JustBet pricing Trump at +146. But that potential profit is both small and tenuous; there’s still a chance that one or both of these presumptive nominees won’t make it to November 3. So let’s look elsewhere for our politics picks – specifically, the four most important swing states in this election. Here they are in alphabetical order, including their odds as they appear at Bovada.

Arizona:

Dems –140, GOP +120

Arizona has voted Republican every year since 1952, except for 1996, when Bill Clinton won for the Democrats. Four years ago, Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 3.5 percentage points – down from the 9-point margin that John McCain and Mitt Romney enjoyed over Barack Obama in the previous two elections. Turning this state blue won’t be easy, but according to FiveThirtyEight, Biden’s lead is plus-4.4 at press time.

Michigan:

Dems –300, GOP +220

This is arguably the one state that really swung the 2016 election in Trump’s favor. It’s been more blue than red since Bill Clinton came along in 1992, but Trump eked out a win over Hillary by 0.2 points. That’s probably not going to happen again this year, not with Biden ahead at plus-9.4 in the polls.

Pennsylvania:

Dems –275, GOP +200

The Keystone State is more of a toss-up than the odds would indicate. Trump only won this state by 0.7 points in 2016, and Pennsylvania went blue in the previous six elections, but Biden is only ahead here by plus-5.4, which is anything but a comfortable lead – just ask Hillary.

Wisconsin:

Dems –210, GOP +155

Don’t blame the polls for screwing up Wisconsin four years ago. None of them had Trump winning in 2016, but Trump’s victory by 0.7 points was well within the margin of error. It might not be so close this time with Biden ahead at plus-7.0; at these odds, you’d definitely rather pick the Dems to take Wisconsin than Pennsylvania, but we’re going chalky here at the ranch with Michigan. It’s just the right thing to do.

Free Politics Pick: Democratic Party to win Michigan (–300)

Michigan(-300)
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