COVID-19 Having Impact On Trump’s Political Fortunes

COVID-19 Having Impact On Trump’s Political Fortunes
President Donald Trump speaks at the daily coronavirus briefing. Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images/AFP

Politics in the time of coronavirus will provide a challenge to the president’s re-election, but though several sportsbooks are offering odds, it may be a tough pick for bettors until an outcome becomes more clear.

Opinions on how President Trump is handling the growing coronavirus pandemic seriously hangs on what side of the political aisle you hang your hat. And how the president ultimately deals with the crisis overall – and that is still ongoing — will likely have a big impact on final vote in November.

As of now, it appears sportsbooks are reflecting a slow lean to the left rather than the right and it appears Donald Trump’s odds on keeping the White House in November are tightening or possibly slipping.

Coming off an Oval Office address that was uniformly panned by pundits and officials as not being comforting and daily briefings that, though filled with superlatives, too, are falling short on real information, the President’s chances of re-election seem too shaky – especially when up against Democratic hopeful former Vice President Joe Biden. There is still time for decisions that would favor his election and lift his popularity, but as of now the base is sustaining him but it is showing some wobble.

US President Donald Trump and US Vice President Mike Pence. Eric BARADAT / AFP

Trump was favored to win in November according to books, but now it seems Biden seems to be closing the gap.

Bovada offers a wide variety of political bets including overall odds on the presidential election from its outcome to the electoral college final count in many states. Other books too, such as BetOnline and 5Dimes are offering political bets as well, with 5Dimes having a few bets on the length and number of questions during Trump’s daily briefings.

Bovada also addresses other possible changes in the administration including the next Cabinet member to exit left; what U.S. Supreme Court justice may leave the bench; and whether Trump will even complete his first term. As for that last one, we’d say 100 percent YES.

There also are bets related to the balance of power in Congress and whether a blue wave continues and possibly transfers to the U.S. Senate or if Republicans take back the House and widen their gap over Democrats in the Senate.

And in this challenging time in the United States, Bovada and oddsmakers even ponder if the election will even take place as scheduled in November.

US President Donald Trump(L) and Democratic presidential hopeful and former Vice President Joe Biden. SAUL LOEB and Ronda Churchill / AFP

US Presidential Election 2020 – Winning Party

  • Democratic Party -120
  • Republican Party -110

Pick: It really is too early to call this because we are still living in the age of corona and then there is the actual race including debates, attack ads, finger-pointing and unflattering nicknames.

US Presidential Democratic Candidate

  • Joe Biden -1400
  • Hillary Clinton +1400
  • Andrew Cuomo +2500
  • Bernie Sanders +2500
  • Michelle Obama +4000

Pick: Easy peasy, go with Joe.

U.S. Presidential Republican Candidate

  • Donald Trump -2500
  • Mike Pence +1600
  • Nikki Haley +3300
  • Mitt Romney +8000
  • Paul Ryan +10000
  • Ben Sasse +15000
  • John Kasich +15000
  • William (Bill) Weld +15000

Pick: Another easy one, Trump.

2020 US Presidential Election Winner

  • Donald Trump -105
  • Joe Biden +105
  • Bernie Sanders +4000
  • Andrew Cuomo +5000
  • Mike Pence +5000
  • Hillary Clinton +6000
  • Nikki Haley +10000
  • Michelle Obama +20000
  • Tulsi Gabbard +50000

Pick: These odds don’t align with which party will win, and we still think it is too early to place this bet.

Next White House Cabinet Member To Leave Administration*

  • Alex Azar (HHS) +115
  • Robert Wilkie (Veterans Affairs) +500
  • Wilbur Ross (Commerce) +500
  • Sonny Perdue (USDA) +1000
  • Mike Pompeo (State) +1400
  • Steve Mnuchin (Treasury) +2000
  • William Barr (Attorney General) +2000
  • Ben Carson (HUD) +2500
  • Betsy DeVos (Education) +2500
  • David Bernhardt (Interior) +5000
  • Elaine Chao (Transportation) +5000
  • Eugene Scalia (Labor) +5000
  • Mark Esper (Defense) +5000

Pick: We have to go with Alex Azar, the Health, and Human Services director…  If this really goes South, with thousands dying in U.S., he is the best pick to be Trump’s fall guy.

*In the event that two or more of the listed individuals leave office at the same time, the individual with the first alphabetical last name will be declared the winner

Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar. Brendan Smialowski / AFP

Next Justice To Leave Supreme Court

  • Ruth Bader Ginsburg -275
  • Clarence Thomas +325
  • Stephen Breyer +800
  • John Roberts +2500
  • Sonia Sotomayor +2500
  • Samuel Alito +5000
  • Brett Kavanaugh +10000
  • Elena Kagan +10000
  • Neil Gorsuch +10000

Pick: Only because of age and health, Ginsburg is the easy bet. But it won’t happen until after Jan. 20, 2021.

Will Trump Complete His First Term?

  • Yes -850
  • No +475

Pick: Trump will hang tough barring any health issues.

Will There Be A Recession In Trump’s 1st Term?*

  • Yes -850
  • No +475

Our Pick: This seems inevitable at this point. The U.S. economy is stretched with retirement accounts taking serious hits, high unemployment probable and many businesses unlikely to recover from this disruption. “Tremendous” sweet talk from the dais won’t be enough to stop it from happening.

*The U.S. economy must experience two consecutive quarters with negative annual growth rate in real GDP (rounded to first decimal)

Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee

  • Kamala Harris +200
  • Amy Klobuchar +300
  • Stacey Abrams +450
  • Elizabeth Warren +1000
  • Gretchen Whitmer +1500
  • Catherine Cortez Masto +1600
  • Val Demings +1800
  • Hillary Clinton +2500
  • Michelle Lujan Grisham +2500
  • Michelle Obama +2500
  • Susan Rice +2500
  • Tammy Duckworth +2500
  • Tammy Baldwin +3000
  • Tulsi Gabbard +7500

Pick: Well, we know it will be a woman, right? Harris seems like a good pick, but Biden could surprise us with Klobouchar, Abrams or even Warren who would either add energy or be a wet blanket. We are months away from this decision, you might want to wait until July to make this choice to see how the winds are blowing.

Democratic presidential hopeful former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN). Logan Cyrus and STEPHEN MATUREN / AFP

Will The Democrats Have A Brokered Convention In 2020?

  • Yes +800
  • No -2000

Pick: No.

Which Party Will Win The Popular Vote In The 2020 Presidential Election?

  • Democrats -300
  • Republicans +220

Pick: Dems will have popular vote – even if they don’t have the electoral college win. Yeah, we like screwy things like this apparently.

US House Of Representatives Control

  • Democrats -290
  • Republicans +210

Pick: The Democrats will maintain control

US Senate Control

  • Republicans -130
  • Democrats EVEN

Pick: We have some senators making some boneheaded decisions that may affect their electability. We recommend you wait to make a call on this one but if having to decide now, go with the GOP.

House And Senate Balance Of Power

  • Democratic House, Democratic Senate +130
  • Democratic House, Republican Senate +140
  • Republican House, Republican Senate +325
  • Republican House, Democratic Senate +5000

Pick:  Again, see how the wind is blowing in a few months, but we are thinking about the status quo.

Will The US Presidential Election Take Place On November 3rd, 2020?

  • Yes -700
  • No +425

Pick:  Yes. Cannot stress how much this will add to getting back normal after coronavirus. Any movement toward it not occurring as scheduled will end badly.