Adam’s 2020 Dreamhack Masters Record (updated daily)
MATCH BETS – May 30
Vitality brought the Finns back down to earth yesterday after their victory over Navi. Other than some brief sequences, Ence were absolutely rolled on their own pick of Mirage and then Dust2. It will be interesting to see how they match-up with Nip now. A loss for either side will see them eliminated in the final day of Group D.
In the Navi/Nip series we came oh so very close to picking up three wins. Natus Vincere just dug themselves in two big of a hole in that first half to still cover the spread. They also lost both pistols while having two man advantages in each. Simple did a lot of heavy lifting in this series. The Ninjas have now playyed four different maps under Hampus and only reached double digits the singular time. Their numbers are the worst in most categories of all the teams in the European region, at least in relation to their price.
In the North American series I was once again burned by a brilliant T-side/weak CT-side (depending on your philosophy) when it looked like a promising close. A 13-8 loss from the favored side of Nuke is rare and unfortunate.
The second series today is the postponed match from Group C earlier in the week; Spirit facing Godsent. The break offers more time for a new roster to work on their map pool with a new player, but hey it also allows Mir time to upgrade from dial-up!
-Ence -2.5 map1 vs Nip @ -110
-Ence -2.5 map2 vs Nip @ +100 [BetOnline]
-Ence -2.5 map3 vs Nip @ +120
-Spirit -3.5 map1 vs Godsent @ +100
-Spirit -2.5 map2 vs Godsent @ -110
-Spirit -2.5 map3 vs Godsent @ +100
-Cloud9 ml vs GenG @ +120
Always risking 1u, never ‘to win’ 1u. If I expose two, that still remains risking 2u, not betting 2.5 to win 1 simply because the price is shorter than what I have. A standard stake here is 1u = 1% of your bankroll. This will keep you in the game instead of busting out every other day because you decided to be stupid and put your entire bankroll down on 8 wagers. If you have worse prices you don’t bet more to compensate. Please do not attach my plays in parlays, you are costing yourself extra money trying to cut corners. If your local only provides moneylines do not tail until you find a sportsbook for adults.
MATCH BETS – May 29th
Contrasting days between the Dota and CS once more, this time in opposite ways. One of these days we’ll string em both together! The general consensus from the Ninjas performance against Vitality is they have taken a step back once more. Of course this was only their first game with Hampus, however it was not pretty in either half of both maps. Nip took the veto to a map they had performed excellently under Lekro and got next to nothing accomplished.
Now I am not sure if the Ninjas have put work into Dust2, or they just thought they stood a better shot on it than Nuke, but it sure did not look that way. It is okay for a team to experiment with map pool a bit but facing Navi today they may not have the luxury to play Dust2 in a similar manner. There is not a lot to say about this match. The Ninjas lost a significant portion of the gun rounds, clutches and opening duels. When they did get the opening kill they struggled to convert the round. Certainly a step back in the early going under Hampus.
Remember yesterday when I commented on Navi’s ability to frag across the whole team? Well that was not the case today. Ence’s debut with new talent Jamppi was excellent and he led the way in kills, damage, and was the highest rated player for them. Navi’s T-sides looked a bit anemic once more on both maps but they did not play poorly, just not as good as we have seen at times. Blade commented on the team needing more confidence, but that is hardly the problem. While mental blocks can prevent teams from performing their best, and can be the case here, Navi’s true weakness is their inability to trade off each other as the terrorists. Through their five maps played they currently hold the lowest trade percentage at 16%.
In the one North American series Cloud9 decided to challenge the Aussies on Dust2 to begin the series. It was similar to their previous meeting insofar as a dominant 10-5 T-side was actually bested by 100 Thieves en route to a loss. Moving to Mirage, it was an excellent pick by the favs. Somehow C9 has managed to only play this map twice in 2020. The one other performance was a crushing defeat to Havu back at Flashpoint. Cloud9 did not look the same team on this map that we have seen consistently on almost every other so it was a shame they could not close out Dust!
- Vitality ml vs Ence @ +105 BetOnline [2%]
- 100 Thieves ml vs Evil Geniuses @ -120 [2%]
MATCH BETS – May 28
Unlike the Dota ESL One Birmingham, we had a good one in CS today. Navi, Faze, and GenG all came through their close series with two 2-1 wins and a 2-0 from the European mix. Those first two had a common theme – improbable comebacks on Dust2 followed by comfortable wins on Overpass. Well, on the CT-side at least.
I liked Vitality‘s choice of Nuke given some of the Navi struggles on it against lesser opposition lately most especially on the T-side. The French team looked very composed on both sides of the map which was displayed even in the two pistol rounds. Going to Dust, still a solid pick for Navi, but the CIS squad were seemingly out of it after losing 7/8 rounds to begin the half. However we finally saw that deathball strategy that made them so scary to play against earlier this year resurface. Their players traded excellently and they won their own string of seven rounds to close the map.
This is where I think we have to be critical of Vitality’s veto, why ban Mirage? Perhaps they were expecting Navi to want to go to Inferno, but that seems like an unnecessary risk. I am rarely a fan of teams playing the veto in such a way unless they are working with information we don’t have. I mentioned after the series between Syman and Natus Vincere earlier this month that is this org’s worst loss on it since the MLG Columbus Major in 2016. And even though they lost the next series on it against Hard Legion on the 10th, it was a much better performance.
Vitality on the other hand made this same mistaken process against Spirit two months ago choosing to ban Mirage and go to Overpass where they again lost the series. They may have lost on Mirage as well, but one takes significantly more coordination and with a still new IGL I just don’t believe it to be wise. I mentioned this morning that I would be looking to see how players not named ‘Zywoo’ and ‘S1mple’ performed; doesn’t get much more decisive than three players hitting 60+ kills and none of them being S1mple, while only Zywoo broke that threshold on Vitality.
In the Faze series both teams played the veto quite well, though I was a bit puzzled with Faze’s decision to ban Inferno in the second phase instead of Train. It could be for anti-strating purposes based on what they learned after yesterday’s destruction to Spirit, as well as believing they could counter Fnatic’s brilliant T-side against Godsent. We won’t know for now as Faze pulled it out in two. Overpass was the right choice for Fnatic to go to, the Faze was clearly the better team. 5-1 and 4-0 starts in each half should be enough to close out your own pick against a team which has not been very consistent on this map, and with a brand new player.
What a contrast that Train T-side was from GenG tonight against Evil Geniuses. You will recall we were on them in their prior meeting when Daps made history by finally beating his old teammates for the first time in so many attempts. I’ll admit I was not feeling so great when I saw them decide to go back to Train, but Daps proved why he is a competent IGL. Not only did they improve on their 3-12 T-Side start where they did not win a single gun round, they absolutely crushed that half with a 10-5 open. Moving to the decider of Vertigo both pistols and a far cleaner T-side allowed them the wiggle room they needed to get the finish.
- Ninjas in Pyjamas ml vs Vitality @ +120 [BetOnline]
- Natus Vincere ml vs Ence @ -160 [2%]
- Natus Vincere -2.5 m1 vs Ence @ -110
- Natus Vincere -2.5 m2 vs Ence @ -110
- Natus Vincere -2.5 m3 vs Ence @ +100
- Cloud9 ml vs 100 Thieves @ +110
MATCH BETS – May 27
Faze and Spirit had the series of the day with an incredibly chaotic and tight final two maps. The opening choice of Train from the CIS squad delivered another dominant T-side performance from them on a notoriously CT-sided map. They ran the score up to 10-5 in the opening half before swiftly closing it out.
Moving to Faze’s choice of Dust2 it was anything but decisive. Spirit brought the opening half back to an 8-7 lead after being down 2-6. They marched on to 14 rounds pretty quickly after that. While a lot of what was talked about was an untimely disconnect for Mir at a critical part in the game, the round itself was not lost because of it. The analysts said he lost a 1v2 where both players were low which was certainly doable. That is true, however it needs to be noted that scenario began as a 4v2 (let’s call it 3v2 without Mir). One of the commentators again said that Spirit was being aggressive in 3v2 because they did not have Mir, but why?
A 3v2 retake on A-site is incredibly common and very manageable. It did take Niko and Broky hitting some very nice shots to turn that round into their favor, but it was only because the two players on long chose to stand in the open near pit and the third player was caught coming out of spawn looking at short…for whatever reason. Having a fourth player certainly would have made that re-take easier, but it was a 2v1 before the bomb even went down. Spirit’s coach stepped in for the final two rounds of overtime. Spirit really should have closed out either Dust2, or even Nuke, long before Faze’s exceptional comebacks occured.
Godsent lost their series against Fnatic in unfortunate fashion. I would love to know more about Flusha’s intentional purchase of the UMP in successive gun rounds. It does make sense for the ranges that he chooses to play at, and grants some bonus money on kills that a rifle would not. Anyway the Swedes finally fought on Inferno and then moving to Train just ran away with the series. A 13-2 half-time score on the T-side of that map just says ‘we are better than you and we know it’.
The Godsent/Spirit match has been postponed, instead today we get started with the next group! The opening series should be a barnbuner between Natus Vincere and Vitality. The last time we saw these two at the Rio qualifiers they were both headed in opposite directions. Everyone always enjoys when superstars clash, but I’ll be looking to see how players not named ‘S1mple’ and ‘Zywoo’ perform on the server.
- Natus Vincere ml v Vitality @ -125 [BetOnline] 1.5%
- Faze ml v Fnatic @ -125
- GenG ml v Evil Geniuses @ +120
MATCH BETS – May 26
Any team is capable of winning any match. Odds are an indication of disparity, yet it very rarely, if ever, is assurance that a squad won’t lose entirely. The team which performs better on the server will almost always win no matter the map or talent. This is why we frequently do not see a repeat outcome, or manner of outcome, even with exact same rosters, or on the same maps, within a short span.
I was asked today how Fnatic could lose to Spirit after Heroic 2-0’d the CIS squad dominantly only a day ago. The truth is simply that Heroic played better against them than the Swedes did. It seems obvious, but we trick ourselves into thinking this is the only possible way this match could have ever have played out. The reason I am always more focused on the price than which team will win is CSGO, like almost all competitions, is a merry-go-round of results. I mentioned in another article that there were 14 different teams which attained a top-five ranking in 2019. Already in 2020 there have been 8, with only four of them holding such a rank for at least 25 maps.
We witnessed Movistar Riders beat Fnatic and then days later lose a best-of-five to a team you likely would not have heard of called Saw. Oh and they did not just lose, they got 3-0’d as a sizable favorite and were even 16-1’d on one of the maps. To refresh memories, this is less than two weeks after the Spaniards handed Golden and company a 16-2 on Inferno. Perhaps Saw would have beat Fnatic 16-0 right?
On Tuesday we were profitable in two of the three Dreamhack series, but I would not have been critical of anyone backing either of the six teams in play. -2.5 at 53% on one of the best teams over the past few months against a good, but not exceptional squad in Spirit, is almost always going to be a spot I like. Inferno was not kind to me today, but if either Faze or Fnatic hold on there we are looking at an even better day.
Faze hilariously just wanted to run on their T-side against Godsent. I mean this quite literally as the amount of strats on all three maps which seemed to be unified holding of the key ‘W’ was all that was needed. The new kid Bymas did all that was needed. Godsent being a tip of less firepower and more reliance on strategy is always going to be in a lesser position with a new player…BUT that does not mean they could not have beat the Clan today.
Moving to North America we witnessed incredibly strong T-sides from both Evil Geniuses and Cloud9 on all three maps. Either team contested each enough we can make arguments for them taking it by the four different scorelines. However going down 3-12 on the CT-side of Train is just far too big of a hole 98% of the time, though they did superb to bring it back as far as they did.
- Faze ml v Spirit @ -180 [2%]
- Godsent +1.5 v Fnatic @ -120
- Godsent ml v Fnatic @ +250 [BetOnline]
- GenG ml v 100 Thieves @ -125 [1.5%]
MATCH BETS – May 25
Complexity and Big have played a lot of tight series recently. Today’s match may have started that way but certainly was a bit more one-sided than the scoreline showed. I liked the Mirage pick from Col even if it needed overtime to come through. One bit of hilarity was the sheer number of force-buy wins. After securing the pistol round the majority of teams will then convert another one or two rounds. On occasions when they lose the second round the opponent will typically convert the next one or two rounds.
We witnessed this second scenario in the opening half when a series of deagle headshots turned a 1-0 deficit into a 3-1 lead. Big won the T-pistol as well in the second half but then had a battle of force-buys over the next seven rounds in which Complexity was the team to come out on top with successive rounds. This alone gave Col an avenue back into the map while also keeping Big’s economy low enough to bring it back to overtime.
Moving to Vertigo and Dust we saw the same on-point Big we have throughout the weekend and they showed off what I believe to be their best two maps currently. Col had an excellent T-side on Dust, however the other three halves of those final two maps were significantly outplayed.
The Mousesports series began quite predictably. It almost feels like their opponents are entering cheat codes by simply picking Inferno. I have watched several of their performances on this map now dating back to the worst of the slump beginning with ESL Pro League and can’t make sense of it. It is not just a losing streak either, they look absolutely terrible on both sides. Teams which normally wouldn’t make it their pick or are considered average at this quality of tournament on it, make Mousesports look a level or two below them. This team is too talented and experienced to not sort this very straightforward map out at some point.
On Mousesports choice, Train, both teams should be pretty happy with their first half. Lions took the second pistol and ensuing gun round to move up to 14-5, and then had enough in their strat box to close it out. I think this is generally the difficulty with having a Train or Nuke as your pick. You still need to consistently get to that 6/7 rounds on T-side, or a pistol loss in the second half could basically decide your fate.
Alright so moving onto the North American match between heavy favorite Furia and lowly Chaos, we had an unfortunate loss on the -1.5 and map2 spread. I commented on Twitter about one particular round, but the truth was that comebacks between this disparity of talent on the hardest side of any map should not really happen. Now I do believe Steel is an excellent IGL and his understanding of the game is severely undervalued. However I didn’t see brilliance from his group on Furia’s choice of Nuke. What I witnessed was a series of impatient and careless plays due to their sizable lead over what I am sure they viewed as a weak opponent.
Nuke is a map where the counter-terrorists start with map control over almost the entire thing with the exception of lobby horizontally out to silo. What this means is the terrorists have to fight for every inch of the map they wish to execute a strategy on. It takes patience and coordination because of the many positions the CT’s could already be holding. This is a huge part of what makes this map so favorable to the defense. As the terrorists move across the map they are forced to use utility or offer up multi-kills. Either way their location is known long before they actually reach a site.
However…IF the counter-terrorists continuously offer up the first kill, whether in ramp or outer, that early warning system to make rotations and flanks is now gone. We saw this time and again this evening.
In regards to the one round it was just a very stupid way to play it out. The gist of it is that Vanity killed a player at vents after Yurih had pushed through lobby on the flank and killed the bomb carrier. At the point at which Yurih sees the bomb on the ground there is approximately 15 seconds left in the round. We know that Vanity needs four seconds to plant. With 12 seconds left Yurih hears Vanity coming from lower, two seconds later Vanity as cleared the ramp. This means Vanity would have 6 seconds to grab the bomb and run it back down to B. I opened up CSGO tonight and ran the route Vanity would have to take to get the bomb. Assuming he had his knife out when he retrieved it, he could get it down there in 7 seconds. However he would have to have his gun out because he woudn’t know if Yuurih had bolted.
I am going to give Yuurih the benefit of the doubt here and say he thought Vanity was much closer than he actually was. It’s pretty well known that people have had difficulty with the sound cues on Nuke before, so I’d prefer to think he was just misinformed than deliberately deciding to fight because ‘meh, its just some no-name pug star from the States.’
- Fnatic -2.5 map1 v Spirit @ -125 [BetOnline]
- Fnatic -2.5 map2 v Spirit @ -135 [BetOnline]
- Fnatic -2.5 map3 v Spirit @ -125
- Faze -3.5 map1 v Godsent @ -110
- Faze -3.5 map2 v Godsent @ -110
- Faze -3.5 map3 v Godsent @ -110
- Cloud9 +1.5 v Evil Geniuses @ -200 [2%]
- Cloud9 ml vs Evil Geniuses @ +160
We have an interesting situation with both Godsent and Faze sporting new players today. When the news broke of Olofmeister’s ‘sabbatical’ the line expectedly dipped on Godsent. Waited as long as I could to post the Faze side, but it could potentially drop to even better numbers before the match starts.
MATCH BETS – May 24
We picked up wins on Big and Complexity in two relatively tight affairs. The Big/Mouse series was an odd one in several respects. For the first time in quite awhile Mousesports banned Mirage instead of Overpass, or even Inferno…but, why? Mouse is on a three game slide on that map, sure, but against respectable teams in which they still competed on it. Karrigan’s group have had two prior three game losing streaks on Mirage and rebounded strongly each time with a nice run. It just seemed like a very bizarre way to begin the day.
I mentioned yesterday that I respected Big’s Nuke, Vertigo and Dust2 more than their Mirage. Well Mouse was nice enough not to put that theory to the test by giving Big what I believed to be three excellent maps for them. So let’s step into Karrigan’s shoes and say they knew Big would not pick Overpass, and you are confident in both your Nuke and Vertigo that you believe you have your strongest two maps, other than Train, first. That makes sense…but you had better be sure to close it out in two. Which Mousesports did almost do, but equally Big almost 2-0’d this series as well. Moving to the decider Big had their choice now of either Mousesports weakest Map, Inferno, or one they are more than competent on, Dust2. Before seeing Dust play out I thought the Germans gave Mouse a far better chance by going there…I was wrong. Big absolutely demolished the European mix on it.
Mouse has played this map 50 times with this 5-man roster. They have only lost by 10+ rounds five times. Three of those came when this team was newly formed in March through May of 2019. The last two have been over the past two months, a 16-1 to Astralis (best team in the world, we can make excuses here), and today. Mousesports just seem like they have taken this past month or two off.
Tomorrow they meet Mad Lions. Now I have been against both Lions and Mouse in all four matches thus far for basically the same reason – overvaluation. However where one should be priced as a dog, the other need only have been a lesser favorite. Now you’ll recall back at Pro League we took Mousesports in their revenge match against the Danes. Since then it has been a downward spiral (given my ratings and the market numbers). Mouse have been a favorite in every series other than against Faze. They have not covered a series spread in a single match and have only picked up three wins over those ten matches; Contact (lol), G2 (when G2 blew a 14-11 lead against USP’s on the decider), and against Copenhagen Flames (thank god for them).
Flames are one of the few benchmark teams we have between the new Acilion-led Lions rosters against this group and specifically Mousesports. While Mouse justifiably is favored, their decline over Rio and losses at Dreamhack Masters have still placed the value as a small dog in the hands of the Lions.
- Complexity -2.5 map1 vs Big @ -110 [BetOnline]
- Complexity -2.5 map2 vs Big @ -110 [BetOnline]
- Complexity -2.5 map3 vs Big @ +105
- Mad Lions ml vs Mousesports @ +140
- Furia -1.5 vs Chaos @ -160 [2%]
- Furia -4.5 map1 vs Chaos @ -120
- Furia -4.5 map2 vs Chaos @ -130
If Furia does happen to drop a map to Chaos, we will see what the decider is before moving on the -4.5. It should be fine, but given the current pricing don’t think we will be losing too much value waiting for the veto to run.
MATCH BETS – May 23
Complexity opened up with two decisive map victories over Mousesports. This Karrigan group is certainly slumping at the moment. Col was just another team to punish them on Inferno. The halftime score was nothing ugly, however after winning the T pistol, Mouse got nothing done. There were a handful of tight rounds, however not picking up a single gun round is pretty inexcusable even if it is a weaker map for them. It is still Inferno, probably the most even map in the pool.
Moving to Dust2 it was almost worse for Mousesports. Some individual player heroics from Ropz made that first half look far better than it actually was. Moving to the CT side, Mouse picked up the pistol on a well planned tactical nade of A site in a 3v5 and then snuck a ninja defuse in a 1v4. Apart from that they did not stop the Complexity offense. Just all around poor showing. What is bizarre is the opening kills were almost dead even at 25:24 in favor of Blamef’s side. That is a pretty poor conversion rate then of man-advantages.
In the Big versus Mad Lions series I was a bit surprised that the German clan decided to choose Mirage instead of Vertigo. The Dust2 ban from Lions was a good one, and they took Big’s map to open the series. Big have had a respectable Nuke for quite sometime but that scoreline on it was certainly unexpected. Moving over to Vertigo it was pretty tight all the way through. Big strung the largest stretch of rounds together at five to close it out 16-13.
This is entirely a group up for grabs. No single team is in better form than any other. Mousesports are slumping but they are not ‘bad’ now. Sometimes it only takes one or two to get back into the groove. I still won’t pay 60% for them against just about any opponent at Dreamhack Masters however.
In the final series of the day moving over to the North American servers, MIBR put together two excellent maps. They made Chaos look deserving of their big dog price. Thought the veto was a good one for both teams, but Chaos have some things to brush up on the ct-side of both of those maps certainly. In hindsight likely worth their opening number, not their close.
- Big ml vs Mousesports @ +140 [Heritage] 1.5%
- Complexity ml vs Mad Lions @ -130 [BetOnline] 1.5%
- Mibr +1.5 vs Liquid @ -120
- Mibr ml vs Liquid @ +250
- Mibr +3.5 map1 vs Liquid @ -105 [BetOnline]
- Mibr +3.5 map2 vs Liquid @ +100 [BetOnline]
- Mibr +3.5 map3 vs Liquid @ -115
As mentioned after the Brazilian derby, the Mibr numbers are encouraging. This will be my third shot on them in this price range against Liquid over the past two months. The first was a write-off given how just about everything went TOO well for Nitro and co. The second, at Rio, we didn’t take any map spreads and stuck with only the series moneyline and spread. Of course the Brazilians covered both map spreads this time around but couldn’t take a map.
This is not a matter of Liquid being too bad to cover tomorrow. We had Furia at -2.5 which hit in both maps one and two a couple nights ago. If you were to rate Furia at being on par, or better, than Liquid than you cannot take TL for this price. The caveat here is things change and we have had more data on both teams since Furia played Mibr. Teams can also match up in a particular way based on history and map pool. However the logic of this point stands, if you find an exception to it then best of luck!
MATCH BETS – May 22
Group A of the Dreamhack Masters tournament is now concluded, and guess who topped it – everyone’s favorite Jekyll n’ Hyde roster, G2! The team that managed eight rounds in a best-of-five grand final only four days prior, and was on the verge of elimination for the past two days, defeated their inner demons and secured a top six finish. One missed defuse from Heroic was all that was talked about, however too frequently we have found G2 on the wrong end of those mistakes. Anyone remember this one from last year:
The look on Astralis’ face after says ‘har har har, those baguettes are such noobs, ez major 4 us.’ Well G2 had a bit of redemption yesterday defeating Astralis for the first time in awhile. Yes, it was with a new player however we need to pat G2 on the back for beating any team with a sub or coach, and most especially when they are priced around 30% to do so!
North were absolutely slapped around by their Danish counterparts yesterday. We cannot use the ‘well they have a new player’ excuse. If you saw the stream, North have been playing from their training facility with their coach, manager and sub in the same room. So kinda one of those ‘it’s not the fact they lost, it’s the way they lost.’ As one Twitter follower remarked ‘my friends and I could have got more than four rounds on T-side Vertigo’. While that is highly debatable, the point certainly stands. Whether it is lack of communication, positional confusion, arguments in the series, an overrated map pool, or the whole team is hungover..was just a poor all around series and Heroic capitalised with far cleaner CS!
I was so so so pleased to be on Liquid before, during and after the series last night. We picked up the best team in the region at a touch below 50%. ‘But Adam, didn’t you see? They lost!’ Yeah Liquid lived up to their ‘chokequid’ moniker they earned at the MLG Columbus Major in 2016, however they played the best series that they lost in quite some time. Perhaps the best series which they lost since Blast Pro Series Finals in December. [On that note actually, Blast has entered the Dota scene. If you notice boards for their upcoming tournament, either match or futures, in the coming weeks please hit me on Twitter!]
So Liquid whiffed a bit on their CT side of Nuke, however tactically speaking they were FAR and away better on all three maps from what we have seen over the past few weeks. Additionally they actually fought for that series. The Elige + Nitro combo has been criticized for being just a ‘rollover and die’ core for years now. That is not a critcismon their level of competitiveness or their work ethic, but rather what has ‘appeared’ to be a dull emotional investment when the team is not doing well. We would have to be in their team meetings to truly know, but I was pleased to not see that side in this online series even at 12-15 on Nuke, or 14-7 on Mirage. I mentioned in our discord that Liquid lost to four either half-buys or low-budget forcebuys on Mirage, two in which they held a two-man advantage, and one against ‘GLAWWWWKS’. For that reason I was satisfied they got their ‘due’ by bringing it back to overtime. Excellent series from two quality teams both playing like it!
- Complexity +1.5 vs Mousesports @ -175 [2u]
- Complexity ml vs Mousesports @ +190 [Heritage]
- Big ml vs Mad Lions @ +130 [Bookmaker]
- Chaos +1.5 vs Mibr @ -160 [Heritage]
- Chaos ml vs Mibr @ +210 [Heritage]
Today we continue our adventure with a new field of teams in Europe; Complexity, Mousesports, Mad Lions and Big. If you have been betting our three tournaments to this point you will be familiar with all four. Lions recently defeated MIBR to take the Flashpoint Season 1 title. Complexity is the ‘juggernaut’ of North American CS…well, not really. They just like to call themselves that despite only having two players from the States. But I guess a Dallas Cowboys partnership would make you feel like ‘America’s team’ even with two Danes and a Bulgarian being the majority of your roster.
Our last taste of Mousesports was pretty poor. The community is now well aware of their aversion to both Inferno and Overpass. Between Pro League and Rio I pondered whether they had worked on either map. But after their opening series with Movistar Riders at the qualifier began immediately clear that they had not. So, it’s been about another two weeks since their last official…what do you think? Even if neither map comes up in the veto, Col has significant value.
Berlin International Gaming has been playing a LOT of Home Sweet Home Cup over the last few weeks. While it is certainly not the same as any of the big tournaments we’ve been working, it is still of suitable quality to fine tune a map pool and keep in tournament shape for a squad like BIG.
MATCH BETS – May 21
Yesterday began with a tight series between Heroic and G2 in all three maps. I mentioned to a buddy that it was only really the disparity in talent between the two that allowed G2 to edge it out. Recently it has seemed the French side have found a way to lose these ones so I suppose they should be pleased they scraped by.
In the Danish derby, it was anything but a competitive series. That was the worst beating Astralis had handed their little brothers in four years. If it was played again tomorrow however it would not look the same. It reminded me a bit of that opening series between Liquid and MIBR a month ago. All five players on one side happened to be in the right positions in all the necessary swing rounds negating any slim advantages the dog might have had. Have to say it was a bit funny watching MSL rage quit after the match, he didn’t even feel like tweeting an MSL classic that they would be back stronger.
The final series held a meeting of Brazilian rivals Mibr and Furia for the fourth time this year. Once again Kscerato’s clan walked away with a win making it six in a row all time. Launders, who is one of the few CSGO analysts worth listening to, made a good comment after Train concluded that it was not a convincing performance from Furia and I entirely agree. Have to keep in mind that this is a MIBR with 3 days practice with a new player and they played one of their better series against Furia. You would expect a bit of sloppiness from a team priced at 35% in their first official after a roster change, but not from a team that believes it can currently contest for a top-five position in the world.
Today we conclude the first of four groups in the European region. Astralis is guaranteed to go through, while North and Heroic compete for the final spots. If G2 lose to the Danes, and Heroic beat North, then I believe the three Danish teams will qualify through. It does not really matter how it breaks down as everyone has something to play for!
We have seen some significant price fluctuations over the last two days the market reacted to day one, then flipped on day two. The philosophical way to look at it is the probability of any of the four teams winning has never changed – only our opinion of it has as more information was known.
- North ml vs Heroic @ +140 [2u]
- G2 +1.5 vs Astralis @ -120
- G2 ml vs Astralis @ +255 [BetOnline]
- Liquid ml vs Furia @ +110 [2u]
MATCH BETS – May 20
I was laughing to myself this morning when I checked the current prices on all the matches against Astralis. I recommended others following my approach in buying all their opposition for the next two days as the news of Jugi subbing in for Glave would only drop the odds, and more critically after the betting community witnessed how Heroic pushed the world #1 to the limit would only move further. Many possess supreme levels of skepticism to rival that of a doubting Thomas. Until we ‘see’ Heroic reach 14 rounds on both maps, how can one know?
It was certainly a ct-favored performance in the Danish derby. This is somewhat expected given the circumstances of the match. The disparity of firepower was evident for the lesser team, while Astralis struggled to piece together succinct t-side rounds.
In the other European series we saw North best G2 once more. If I had been on the French I would have been pleased to see them choose Inferno. It is a map which the Danes through many iterations of MSL rosters have struggled on. Anyone recall a Vici series at the major qualifiers not so long ago?
G2 put together a strong t-side, broke North in round 17, and then closed out without too much trouble. I must say I was surprised at the scoreline on Vertigo. Only a week or two ago the Rio analysts were sporting G2 as the best Vertigo team in the world. Perhaps they only meant the world outside Denmark?
Today they face Heroic and the number has continued to come down on the Danes after their Astralis performance combined with G2 having not beat any of Heroic’s countrymen in the month of May. Well, besides Copenhagen Flames. The number on G2’s map spreads is excellent and so have gone with that despite the inconsistencies I mentioned yesterday.
I posted the Furia wagers last night. We have MIBR going through yet another roster change. At least they are consistently changing their team once every six months. This time they swapped out the Argentinian Meyern for another South American pro whose future they have yet to depress. Even with Meyern however at those numbers I would have been backing #DIADEFURIA!
MATCH BETS – May 19
We should feel quite privileged that the CSGO tournament organizers have almost seamlessly transitioned their events into online competitions. Additionally they have scheduled them in a way that we have next to no downtime between quality events. Flashpoint began on the 14th of March, and over the past two months we have had just six days without top-level CS. And again, that is only the most prestigious tournaments and only one Esport.
Today we begin the Dreamhack Masters. Dreamhack is a long-running name in the CS circuit. Their parent company is Modern Times Group which purchased a majority stake in the company which owns ESL. In recent years Dreamhack events have lost a significant amount of their prestige as tournaments with far larger prize pools cropped up and the best teams were in a position to decline invitations and qualifiers to the smaller events. However the Masters branch of their events has continued to attract the best of the best with only Nip, Virtus Pro, G2, Astralis, North, Liquid, and Fnatic winning.
Dreamhack Jonkoping has been transitioned into four regions; North America, Europe, Oceania, and Asia. Similarly to the two ESL events we’ve been betting, there is a separate group stage and playoffs for each region. For the EU and NA competitions there should not be a single club you have not heard to this point. Some of you were quite proactive and used your day off on Monday to begin working on this week’s matches, pat yourself on the back!
The Europe region is split into four groups of four playing a round-robin format over three days. The team finishing first in each will go directly to the upper-bracket of the playoffs where they need only win two matches to reach the best-of-five grand final. Oh, and they also have a one map advantage over the lower-bracket team. Not a fan of the 1-0 gift. There is already a natural benefit of playing fewer matches and therefore avoiding elimination, well I’ll save that rant for another day.
The second and third-place teams will qualify for the lower-bracket, while the fourth team is eliminated. This is an excellent format as in most scenarios every match will matter whether playing for UB or LB or just avoiding elimination.
The North American side follows the same structure with only two groups instead. Additionally, instead of playing two matches per day like Europe, they will hold the late time slot with a singular match spread over a longer period.
Want to talk about stacked tournaments? This one has it. 19 of HLTV’s current Top20 teams are playing in either the European or North American competitions. The lone team missing out is OG.
We have the reason Flashpoint winners, Mad Lions, back on Danish soil and ready to prove they are the official #2 in at least their own nation. Given the fact the other three domestic rivals are all in the same group, that should not be too difficult. We have Astralis fresh off a cruise-control of a grand final against G2 (that’s two bo5’s G2 have been utterly pathetic in). Heroic is the Cadian-led roster which was dropped by FunPlus Phoenix due to Astralis poaching one of their players in the middle of Flashpoint… remember that? Well I am sure Cadian has. Cannot be bothered reading up on the drama, just know that since the embarrassing exit from Flashpoint these Danish underdogs should have been prepping for only this match.
Finally we have North, who will be facing the French powerhouse of G2. Sadly for the Danes they will be without their best player, Jumpy…ahem. In his place will be Kristou the 18-year-old talent responsible for eliminating Heretics from this competition a month ago in the open qualifiers. The kid can game! All Jumpy jokes aside, I am glad North went with a replacement who is not only talented but also has not been broken into this level of competition.
- Heroic (+1.5) vs Astralis @ +130 [Bookmaker]
- Heroic (ml) vs Astralis @ +500 [Bookmaker]
- Heroic (+4.5) map1 vs Astralis @ +100
- Heroic (+5.5) map2 vs Astralis @ -115
- Heroic (+5.5) map3 vs Astralis @ -120 [BetOnline]
- North (+1.5) vs G2 @ -115
- North (ml) vs G2 @ +300
While in the midst of working on the North American match, it was announced Jugi would be taking over for Astralis’ in-game leader, Gla1ve. Expectedly the sportsbooks have reacted immediately reigning in the line, so I will post what it is currently on the board, given that by the time this is published the news will be well-known. However, if you have them, the outrights on the European portion of some betting sites have not reacted at all to the news, namely BetOnline and Bet365. If you have these options you can get in touch with me to find out what I’m on but I cannot include them in this piece given how few books are offering futures at the moment.
There are two ways to approach the situation. The first being Astralis is without their caller, in most situations, and chief strategist. The impeccable Danish synergy that they are known for will not be there to the same extent. The other angle is they are still the best team in the world capable to adapting better to these types of situations better than others. Additionally they still have daddy Zonic in the server and comms with them.
Can have a listen to this clip from their opening series against Complexity for ‘research’:
I have no projection for North with Kristou either which would normally cause me to back the opposition. The problem is G2 is still so damn short. Sure they can cover when they are not the most inconsistent top team we have in 2020. So I decided to keep it simple with a Danish series handicap and moneyline, though it is with no expectations of the young’un in comparison to Jumpy or Kjaerbye.
I have already loaded up on the Heroic, G2, and North bandwagon for the week. If any of the series are close or the Danish #1 lose a singular match it pays for all of them. However, again I can’t post the lines as they exist now given that some people will only read these a day at a time.
Will circle back to the Liquid/Chaos match a little later in the day!