1. #1
    GDaddy46
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    3-1 yesterday
    C* NFL: Denver Broncos +3 @ 2.02/+102
    -Rule #1 of betting: People remember what they saw last. And that was the Titans toppling the almighty Ravens and Henry being the most dominant RB in the entire NFL. And, the average person thinks "Shit, and now they are even better after adding Clowney." However, that isn't reality. Reality is this - Tannehill greatly overperformed to end the season, they lost an all-pro LT in Conklin, they lost an all-pro DE in Jurrell Casey, and also lost their defensive coordinator. Losing Conklin is HUGE considering the fair majority of runs were designed to the left side, including the highlight reel 99-yard TD vs JAX. Vrabel will be calling the defensive plays on top of the head coach role. A lot of things going against them.

    Now let's contextualize the Broncos. The average person thinks "They lost Von Miller, they're screwed!" but that's the furthest thing from the truth. Let's go back to All-pro DE Jurrell Casey... he's now a Bronco. He has publicly said he felt disrespected with the Titans trading him, and now he gets the first game versus his old team. Bradley Chubb is available, and they added a pro-bowler CB in A.J. Bouye to line up against a very weak WR core, obviously covering AJ Brown. Although Von Miller out hurts them - this defense, even without Miller, is BETTER than last years defense. Cortland Sutton may be hurt as well but Jeudy & Hamler are no slouches at WR, also added Melvin Gordon giving them a huge improvement in receiving out of the backfield.

    As I type this I almost want to upgrade it to 4 units even, but going to stick with 3. Titans cross-country travel in high altitude after a shortened training camp and a whole lot of hype around them. Catching a FG at home is just ridiculous here. Broncos win outright IMO

  2. #2
    GDaddy46
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    B* NFL: New York Giants +6 @ 1.926/-108

    -Wouldn't be on this game if the line didn't jump to 6, but here we are. However I do genuinely like the Giants in this game for a smaller play.

    All everybody talks about is the Steelers defense and how they set the sack record last year blah blah blah.. I'm not nearly as big on them as all of the talking heads and casual fantasy people. Consider this: they broke the sack record last year with 54 which is an average of 3.375 sacks per game. However, that number is greatly inflated from a few of the worst teams we've seen in NFL history. They recorded the following: 8 vs CIN, 4 vs CIN, 4 vs MIA, 5 vs ARI. Three of the bottom 5 offensive lines in the entire NFL and 2 QB's who aren't mobile in the slightest as well as a rookie QB. That's 21 sacks in 4 games, and only 33 in the other 12 showings. Putting them at 2.75 sacks/gm in those other 12. Right about the league average last year.

    Don't get me wrong, the Giants line isn't terrific but PFF has their unit ranked 20th and Brandon Thorn has them at 21st. Lower half, but couple a "respectable" O-Line with a QB that isn't afraid to run and I don't see pressure being a huge issue here unlike everybody else on the planet.

    Onto the next step of discrediting the Steelers D: their takeaways. 8 combined takeaways in 3 games between CIN & MIA, 2 of the worst 3 teams in the NFL last year. They forced 22 fumbles and 20 INT's. Fumbles here won't be that easy. Saquon fumbled ONCE in 3 years at Penn St, and just once in his 2019 rookie campaign. Two fumbles in 4 years. You'll be hard pressed to force a turnover out of him.

    Mike Tomlin said James Conner is their "bellcow" and the offense runs through him. Him and Saquon running a lot = clock running. Can't help but take the +6 here.. too high of a number for the home team on shortened camps.. people buying HIGH on Steelers D as well as the team in general. Outright potential here as well for the Giants.

  3. #3
    GDaddy46
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    B* NFL: Cleveland Browns -5.5 @ 1.909/-110
    -This is buying a half pt on Bookmaker. Significantly better line than other books

    -The Browns got the piss beat out of them last week but I couldn't care less about that performance. The Ravens are going to be on a revenge tour after blowing last season, and they lost at home to the Browns last season. They had far more continuity and took advantage of a newly assembled coaching staff in the Browns. Can write that game off as a mismatch through and through.

    As for the matchup at hand, I don't see a single advantage that Cincinnati holds over Cleveland. It's too early to call Burrow better than Baker and Mixon has a bad matchup here. Cincinnati's OLine is atrocious. There's no way around it. And now they have to go up against a top 3 defensive lineman in the NFL in Myles Garrett. He'll have an absolute field day on the edge and be pressuring Burrow to run or potentially make an errant throw as he did vs the Chargers.

    Cincinnati's defense did just enough to game the game managing Tyrod Taylor from pulling away last week. I don't think they have that luxury here. Baker has big arm potential and presumably having time to sit in the pocket here is a huge plus for his style of quarterbacking. Chubb won't be locked down as he was by Baltimore as well.

    Very difficult for me to see Cincinnati covering this game. Huge game for Stefanski & company to make their mark after being trashed last week by the best team in the AFC. Got the Browns by double digits in this one.

  4. #4
    GDaddy46
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    C* MLB: Cleveland Indians -1.5 @ 1.719/-139
    -Plesac had an outing very out of the ordinary versus Minnesota in his last start, but the Twins have owned the Indians all season long. Not the case for the Tigers who are 2-5 vs CLE this year. Tigers are 1-7 last 8 games Fulmer started vs a winning record team, and this fits that mold. Tigers haven't seen Plesac yet this year and only have a combined 14 at bats vs him. No familiarity is a downside vs a GOOD pitcher. Indians own Fulmer, Lindor hitting .409 on 22 AB, Santana .333 on 15 AB, and Naquin .636 on 11 AB.. game has blowout written all over it. One team in the playoff hunt, one isn't.

    C* MLB: Cincinnati Reds ML @ 1.847/-118
    -Reds are barely ahead of the Cards & Brewers in the playoff race and need to start winning games like this to secure a spot. White Sox already clinched and at this point are just playing to maintain form and for seeding. Stiever looked good in his debut but it was against the lackluster Tigers. The lineups are night & day from DET to CIN. Huge game for Cinci to get back to .500 here and I'd personally favor them a decent bit more than this line.

  5. #5
    GDaddy46
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    B* NCAAF: Marshall +5.5 @ 1.909/-110
    -App St might have a 23rd ranking next to their name but that's only because of the Big Ten/PAC12 not being in the top 25. They hardly even crack the top 40 with those conferences included. I was dead wrong on betting against Marshall and it backfired heavily. 59-0 Marshall beatdown saw that EKU +24 bet dead after a quarter. I'll hop fence and back Marshall in this game. Their QB has a ridiculously accurate arm and I'm not sure that's necessarily being accounted for here. Majority of the bets are on App St, likely because of the ranking and not many people having watched that Marshall game. This team is good. They play hard, and their QB is a stud in the making. Like outright potential but just taking the points.

    B* NCAAF: Louisville ML @ 2.00/+100
    A* NCAAF: Louisville -6 @ 2.88+188
    -Miami is overhyped. Louisville is the better team in this game. Better QB, better coach, better results last year. Only logic for Miami getting all this hype is D'Eriq King but I'd put Cunningham as the better QB in this game. King is vastly overrated and won't have a chance in the NFL just like another Houston QB in Greg Ward. Louisville should win this game by 7+ so taking a ringer on the -6 alt line on top of ML

    C* MLB: Cincinnati Reds ML @ 1.793/-126
    -People are fully buying into the White Sox hype train apparently as the majority of bets on this game are showing to be on them. Don't think that's the case here. Bauer dominated the White Sox hitters for years when he was on the Indians and is in maybe the best form of his life this year in Cinci. Better pitcher, team that needs the win more, and a better matchup for the batters all favor Cincinatti. At a short favorite price this ones no question to me.

  6. #6
    GDaddy46
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    C* NFL: Philadelphia Eagles ML @ 1.80/-125
    -The overreaction special of the week. The Eagles lost to a team that is perceived to be horrible in Washington (which we had WAS in) while the Rams beat a perennially hyped up Cowboys team. If you watched the Rams game last week you'd know McCarthy's nonsensical call in the red zone cost them that game - not being outplayed by the Rams. The Rams ability to make plays disappeared after Dallas made necessary adjustments. With tape to go off of here and travelling cross country for the Rams, love the Eagles in this spot. Nice cozy LA weather and practicing on turf to low 60's on natural grass when your body clock is set to 10am for kickoff. Eagles in this game.

    C* NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 @ 1.97/-103
    -The Panthers very well may have the worst defense in the NFL. They got torched last week by the Raiders and now have to play an even more potent offense. Tampa Bay having a week under their belt now should help them greatly. Off a shortened camp the timings weren't there and Brady threw an uncharacteristic 2 INT's last week. Somebody with the work ethic that he has won't let that happen again. Godwin is out but that doesn't bother me in the slightest.. Brady can't throw a deep ball anyways. They'll simply wear down the Panthers and clear this victory by double digits.

    B* NFL: Miami Dolphins +6 @ 1.87/-115
    -Love the Bills this year but no chance I would feel comfortable laying 6 on the road here. They consistently fail to close games out and let opponents claw back regularly and now will be going from low humidity mid-60's practice weather to high 80's and humid in a real game environment. Miami is nowhere near as bad as they were last year and catching 6 at home here is too much to pass on.

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