Another whirl-wind week on the US Election Betting trail stares us down with multiple crises facing the nation. The coronavirus pandemic isn’t going away, the West Coast is burning and societal unrest is still dominating news cycles across the country.
This week the Candidates will be hitting the Campaign Trail hard – each having to do a little damage control. For Donald Trump, it will be yet another week of defending his response to the coronavirus crisis, trying to tamp down the serious revelations made in Bob Woodward’s book, dealing with the Wildfires in the West, and trying to make people forget about his incendiary remarks toward the military.
For Joe Biden, he will be forced to defend his “mental well-being”, his alleged ties to the radical left and the accusations that he was unable to fix racial, economic and foreign policy issues during the eight years he was serving as Vice-President.
The US Election Betting Odds have been fluctuating the last few weeks despite the polls remaining fairly consistent. Let’s take a deeper look at this week’s US Political Betting Roundup.
The Polls vs the Odds Update
While still leading in the average of polls, Joe Biden has seen his lead shrink from its peak a couple of months ago when he was at 50.5% and Donald Trump was at 40%. Today the average of the polls has Biden up 50%-43% which still represents a healthy lead but a notable downturn. Fox News on Sunday had Biden up 51%-46%.
That said, 50% is considered among political analysts and even campaign officials to be the prize number that a candidate shoots for. Hillary Clinton never got close to that number in 2016.
Compare that to the odds, which have been fluctuating seemingly every week as of late – not major moves but ones that have to be considered. Bovada currently has Biden the -115 favorite with Trump a slight -105 underdog. Trump was Even-Odds September 10, +115 August 21 and as low as +145 July 31.
Translation – just like the Election Polls, the Election Betting Odds have tightened the last few months with the question being whether or not each of the two Candidates can gain any more support ahead of November 3.
Donald Trump has gotten back to his bread-and-butter the last couple weeks culminating in his packed live rallies. Outdoor rallies have given way to indoor ones – contrary to all health regulations in both Nevada and in California.
Rallies allow Trump to get his word out and to dominate the news cycles again. Criticism hasn’t seemed to phase the President yet although even some Republicans have questioned the decisions to bring thousands of largely maskless supporters together. Rallies have worked in the past for Donald Trump – it will be interesting to see if the controversial campaign stops translate into a bump in the US Election Polls and Odds again.
For the time being, Trump’s campaign stops will be the biggest tool in his belt in order to spread his word. That will be the reality until the much-anticipated Debates that start in Cleveland September 29.
Polling, which proved largely unreliable in 2016 has Trump trailing in some of the major swing states that both Candidates will need in order to claim victory in November. Recent Swing State polling continues to reveal troubling trends for the Incumbent. Arizona has Biden up 47%-44%, Minnesota has Biden up 50%-41%, Nevada is leaning Biden 46%-42%, New Hampshire has Biden 45%-42% over Trump and in Wisconsin, Biden is also up 48%-43%.
The US Election Betting Odds seem to be aligning with the rash of Swing State Polls. In Arizona, Bovada has the Democrats a -200 favorite with the Republicans a +150 underdog, Minnesota has the Democrat Candidate -250 and the Republican +185, Biden a -380 favorite in Nevada, a -250 favorite in Nevada and a -180 favorite in Wisconsin.