Chiefs vs. 49ers Super Bowl Player Props, Odds: Picks & Predictions for Top Stars
There will be plenty of talent on the field in the 2024 Super Bowl as the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs boast eight first-team All-Pros between them, and we offer our Chiefs vs. 49ers Super Bowl player props based on the best NFL odds.
If the Kansas City Chiefs win the Super Bowl on Sunday, they'll become just the sixth team in NFL history to win three titles in five years and the first since the New England Patriots (2014-18). They'll first have to get past the San Francisco 49ers in the 2024 Super Bowl.
The Chiefs are also looking to become the first repeat champions since the 2003-04 Patriots, while Andy Reid aims to become the fifth head coach with three or more Super Bowl wins. That has us leaning to the Chiefs with our latest Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction.
The San Francisco 49ers earned their spot in Super Bowl LVIII after coming back from a 24-7 halftime deficit against the Detroit Lions, which was the third-largest comeback win in Conference Championship history. San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan has the highest postseason win percentage of any of the four major sports’ head coaches to never have won a championship.
To accompany our Super Bowl predictions, here are our best Chiefs vs. 49ers NFL player props for the 2024 Super Bowl (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Chiefs vs. 49ers player props: Super Bowl
- Christian McCaffrey to rush for 100+ yards (+135 via DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Jauan Jennings Over 13.5 receiving yards (-105 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes -0.5 passing touchdowns vs. Brock Purdy (+145 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Chiefs vs. 49ers player prop predictions
Christian McCaffrey to rush for 100+ yards (+135 via DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Christian McCaffrey has averaged 5.1 yards per carry and totaled at least 90 rushing yards in both playoff games thus far. While his consensus projected total aligns with that average with an O/U of 90.5 yards, we are opting for the better value with his alternate rushing yards total, as he eclipsed 100 yards rushing in four of six games to end the regular season.
Including the playoffs, San Francisco’s rushing offense ranks third in yards per game, fourth in yards per rush, sixth in yards before contact per rush, and fifth in yards after contact per rush. Meanwhile, Kansas City’s defense ranks 17th in rushing yards per game, 25th in yards per rush, 24th in yards before contact per rush, and 26th in yards after contact per rush.
This is also a three-star play, as Opta Analyst US pointed out McCaffery’s elite ability to break tackles despite a minimal yards before contact average in the playoffs compared to his fellow running backs. The +135 odds at DraftKings and bet365 are great value compared to the much lower +104 offered at Caesars. In addition, oddsmakers at FanDuel seem relatively convinced that a player will rush for 100 or more yards, as the “yes” option for a player to do so has a price of -106, while the “no” is at -114.
See our Christian McCaffrey NFL player props and our Super Bowl rushing props for more on the Offensive Player of the Year.
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Jauan Jennings Over 13.5 receiving yards (-105 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jennings has been an excellent option on key downs for quarterback Brock Purdy, as 45% of his receiving yards this season have come on third down. Though a lot of the production came after fellow receiver Deebo Samuel left the game, Jennings had 61 receiving yards in the Divisional Round against the Green Bay Packers, which was the team’s biggest game to that point.
And Jennings should be comfortable in Allegiant Stadium, as he has 25-plus receiving yards in five of six career games inside domed stadiums.
This is a four-star play, as we may only need one reception from Jennings to cash this wager, since QB Brock Purdy led the NFL in completions of 25-plus yards, completion percentage on throws of 20 or more air yards, yards per attempt outside the numbers, and yards per attempt on air yard throws of 10, 15, 20, and 25 or more yards.
FanDuel is slightly higher on Jennings’ outlook with an O/U of 14.5 receiving yards, and BetMGM and DraftKings are juiced to -120 to back the Over of 13.5.
See our Super Bowl receiving props for more.
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Patrick Mahomes -0.5 passing touchdowns vs. Brock Purdy (+145 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
With this wager, we are betting on Mahomes to have more passing touchdowns than Purdy. We were tempted to back Mahomes to throw for three or more touchdowns using bet365’s “Player Passing Touchdowns Milestones” feature, which pays +260. However, in the event that Mahomes throws for only two touchdowns, we still expect that to exceed Purdy’s output.
Mahomes threw for 286 yards and two touchdowns against a better 49ers defense in Super Bowl LIV, so we expect another strong output in this matchup.
Entering the Super Bowl in 2019, San Francisco was allowing 278.6 yards per game, 4.7 yards per play, a 32% third down conversion rate, had 57 sacks, and allowed a 44 total QBR. This year, the 49ers are allowing 312.6 yards per game, 5.1 yards per play, allowing conversions on 42% of third downs, have 50 sacks, and allowed a 52 total QBR.
We also expect Mahomes to be comfortable in the pocket against a much weaker pass rush than the version he faced in 2019. That year in the regular season, the 49ers ranked third in sack percentage and seventh in pressure percentage, while those numbers dropped to 18th and 21st in the regular season this year.
Conversely, Purdy has thrown for just two total touchdowns this postseason and faces an experienced defensive coordinator in Steve Spagnuolo. Spagnuolo is the only coordinator in NFL history to win a Super Bowl with two teams and is 3-1 overall in four Super Bowl appearances. San Francisco should rely on the run much more than Kansas City, making the plus-money odds for this wager enticing.
Get more action on the starting quarterbacks of Super Bowl 58 with our Purdy vs. Mahomes NFL Player Props, Brock Purdy NFL player props, and Patrick Mahomes NFL Player Props.
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Chiefs vs. 49ers player props made Saturday at 6:39 a.m. ET.
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