We're making our best Brock Purdy Super Bowl player prop predictions based on the NFL odds from our best Super Bowl betting sites as his San Francisco 49ers face the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2024 Super Bowl.
Less than two years ago, Brock Purdy was the 262nd and final pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. He'll have a chance to become one of the biggest surprise stories in NFL history on Sunday as his San Francisco 49ers face the Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV.
Purdy wasn't with the 49ers when they lost that game, but he could lead them to their first title since 1994. He's already tied the second-most wins by a quarterback in their first two seasons since 1950, and he's only the eighth quarterback to start a Super Bowl within his first two seasons.
Purdy has been averaging 295.5 passing yards per game with two touchdowns, one interception, and 62 rushing yards this postseason. What will he have in store for the Chiefs' defense during the 2024 Super Bowl?
To accompany our Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction and other Super Bowl predictions, here are our best Brock Purdy Super Bowl player props for 49ers vs. Chiefs (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Brock Purdy player props: 2024 Super Bowl
- Brock Purdy’s first pass to be incomplete or intercepted (+194 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Brock Purdy to not throw a fourth-quarter touchdown pass (-175 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Brock Purdy Under 12.5 rushing yards (+100 via DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Brock Purdy player prop predictions
Brock Purdy’s first pass to be incomplete or intercepted (+194 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Brock Purdy finished the regular season second among all quarterbacks (minimum 10 starts) with a 69.4% completion percentage. However, he's looked shaky in the playoffs thus far, completing 61.4% of his pass attempts, including a 37 Total QBR and 47% completion percentage in the first half of the NFC Championship.
This is Purdy’s first Super Bowl experience, so we would not be shocked if he experienced some jitters early. He's facing a defensive coordinator in Steve Spagnuolo who's the only coordinator in NFL history to win a Super Bowl with two different teams (Chiefs and New York Chiefs).
Spagnuolo is also 3-1 as a defensive coordinator in the Super Bowl. We're getting great odds on Spagnuolo to confuse Purdy early and to force an incompletion, especially with the right side of San Francisco’s offensive line ranking 30th in pressure rate allowed.
DraftKings is posting slightly worse +190 odds for Purdy’s first pass to not be completed. And given that FanDuel is slotting Patrick Mahomes as the -120 favorite to finish with the higher completion percentage (Purdy has -102 odds), this wager is worth a three-star play.
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Brock Purdy to not throw a fourth-quarter touchdown pass (-175 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Purdy’s +140 odds to throw a touchdown pass in the fourth quarter would be enticing for many bettors who know that his 126.8 passer rating in the playoffs during the fourth quarter is the best of any quarterback since at least 1991 with a minimum of 30 pass attempts. However, Kyle Shanahan’s offenses haven't been enjoying success in the fourth quarter over two Super Bowl appearances, with his units outscored 40-0.
Andy Reid is 3-0 against Shanahan as a head coach, so we're not banking on Shanahan out-smarting him in this contest. However, even if we are wrong and San Francisco is successful, there's a chance that a positive game script causes the 49ers to milk the clock and not be as aggressive in the passing game during the fourth quarter.
Regardless, the Chiefs' defense has allowed 32 total points (four points per game) in the second halves of their previous eight contests. That includes 10 points in the second halves across their three playoff games, so scoring should be at a premium over the final 30 minutes.
FanDuel charges a much steeper -188 price for Purdy to go without a touchdown pass in the fourth quarter, so the better value is at DraftKings. And considering that the “no” for Purdy to throw a touchdown pass in the first or third quarters is juiced to -265 and -245, respectively, we're getting away with a relatively cheap price to limit this wager to Purdy’s fourth-quarter prop.
Brock Purdy Under 12.5 rushing yards (+100 via DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Over on Brock Purdy’s rushing yards is the most bet rushing prop in the Super Bowl at DraftKings. But not only do we prefer to be on the contrarian side of this play, we believe the public is overreacting to Purdy's solid day on the ground in the NFC Championship Game.
Purdy recorded 48 yards rushing against the Detroit Lions, including 49 in the second half and three rushing first downs. The ball was in his hands a lot in the second half because the 49ers were busy completing the third-largest comeback (from 24-7 down) in Conference Championship history.
Purdy averaged 6.2 passing yards per attempt during the first half of that game. In the second half, he posted a 99 Total QBR while completing 81% of his pass attempts for 10.9 yards per attempt. We do not expect this game to get too out of hand early, which will force Shanahan to call a more traditional game plan, limiting Purdy's rushing ceiling in the process.
The signal-caller had recorded nine or fewer rushing yards in the final six games of the regular season and only 13-plus rushing yards in six of 18 games. The Over for Lamar Jackson's 63.5 rushing yards total was one of the most popular player prop wagers of the Conference Championship round, and the Chiefs held him to 54 yards on eight carries. We expect Kansas City to similarly hold Purdy, who's not known for his legs, under his projected total as well.
We discussed other ways to bet on the ground game with our look at the best rushing props for Super Bowl 58.
Brock Purdy player prop picks made Friday at 6:32 a.m. ET.
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