The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs face off in the 2024 Super Bowl, and we're making the best Brock Purdy vs. Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl player prop predictions based on the NFL odds from our best Super Bowl betting sites.
There will be a clear difference in experience under center in Super Bowl 58. Kansas City Chiefs passer Patrick Mahomes is making his fourth start in the Big Game, while San Francisco 49ers starter Brock Purdy enters his Super Bowl debut on Sunday.
As we discussed when ranking Mahomes' Super Bowl appearances, the Chiefs' star QB has been electric on this stage in years past, and he's completed 68% of his pass attempts for 718 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions in these playoffs.
Meanwhile, Purdy has struggled in the postseason thus far, especially early in games. Can he mount a comeback if the 49ers, who are the favorites by the Super Bowl odds, fall behind early against the defending champions?
To accompany our Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction and other Super Bowl predictions, here are our best Brock Purdy vs. Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl player props for 49ers vs. Chiefs (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Patrick Mahomes vs. Brock Purdy player props: 2024 Super Bowl
- Brock Purdy Under 248.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes Over 36.5 passing attempts (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes Over 7.5 consecutive completions (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
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Patrick Mahomes vs. Brock Purdy prop predictions
Brock Purdy Under 248.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The only way Purdy is going Over this number is if the 49ers fall way behind in the game. And he still may not hit the mark against a great defense even if that happens.
The 49ers were behind against both the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers during the playoffs, and Purdy finished with 267 and 252 passing yards in those games, respectively. Each of those defenses is considerably worse than what the Chiefs are putting on the field Sunday.
The Chiefs are allowing just 181.5 passing yards per game. With Christian McCaffrey likely to find some running room against a mediocre Chiefs run defense, Purdy probably won’t be called upon to throw too much.
You could consider taking Mahomes to finish with more yards than Purdy, but the price for that prop is a much steeper -140.
For more on the San Francisco quarterback, check out our best Brock Purdy NFL player props.
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Patrick Mahomes Over 36.5 passing attempts (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Isiah Pacheco should get plenty of room to run against the 49ers’ defense. But Mahomes will still be throwing the ball a lot. Even with the Chiefs leading for all of the AFC Championship Game and Pacheco running the ball 24 times, Mahomes still attempted 39 passes.
Mahomes has attempted 37-plus passes in four of his last six games. The 49ers boast such a dangerous offense that no lead is safe against them. Therefore, Andy Reid won’t start trying to drain the clock too early, especially after the Baltimore Ravens earned plenty of opportunities in Kansas City's last game.
The 49ers are allowing an average of 36.6 pass attempts per game. Even if Mahomes struggles to complete a high percentage of his attempts, this game will be close enough that he'll be throwing for all four quarters.
We discussed this market in further detail in our Patrick Mahomes NFL player props.
Patrick Mahomes Over 7.5 consecutive completions (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Mahomes has demonstrated remarkable accuracy in the postseason, completing at least 73.9% of his pass attempts in two out of three games. Furthermore, he's maintained a high completion rate, achieving at least 70% in four out of his last six games.
This could become a stressful prop if his receivers drop a significant amount of throws, as they have throughout the season. However, Mahomes and his receiving corps should excel while in a controlled environment for the first time this postseason.
The 49ers are allowing their opponents to complete 65.52% of their passes during 2023-24, ranking 20th in the NFL. Mahomes is great at taking what the defense gives him, which should be plenty in this matchup. For this price, this is one of the best props for either quarterback in this game.
We went into more detail on this bet in our breakdown of the best passing props for Super Bowl 58.
Super Bowl Brock Purdy vs. Patrick Mahomes prop picks made Friday at 12:47 p.m. ET.
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