How to Bet Patrick Mahomes' Best Super Bowl Performances: Prop Predictions Based on Past Stats

We're ranking Patrick Mahomes' best Super Bowl performances and looking at how to bet the Chiefs QB vs. the 49ers in Super Bowl 2024 using the best NFL odds from our best Super Bowl betting sites.

Patrick Mahomes has only been in the NFL for seven years, and the Kansas City Chiefs QB has already put together a resume fit for the Hall of Fame. He'll look to add to that Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers in the 2024 Super Bowl.

He already beat the 49ers back in 2020, when his Chiefs erased a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter to win Super Bowl LIV and secure the first Lombardi Trophy of his career. He also won Super Bowl MVP in that game and again last year, and he's the favorite to win again by the latest Super Bowl MVP odds.

His team remains the underdog by the latest Super Bowl odds tp become the first repeat champion since the 2003-04 New England Patriots. And he could inch ever closer to chasing Tom Brady as the NFL's all-time best quarterback with a win on Sunday.

In addition to our Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction and other Super Bowl predictions, we're ranking Mahomes' best Super Bowl performances and making our predictions for his stat line on Sunday with our best NFL picks from our best NFL betting sites.

Patrick Mahomes' best Super Bowl appearances

1) Super Bowl LVII vs. Eagles (Feb. 12, 2023)

It doesn't get much better than what we saw from Mahomes in last year's Super Bowl, when he completed 21 of 27 passes for 182 yards and three TDs in his team's 38-35 win over the Philadelphia Eagles.

Mahomes finished with his fewest passing yards in a Super Bowl start, but he didn't throw an interception for the first time in his three appearances. He also added 44 yards on the ground, including a critical 26-yard scramble on the Chiefs' final drive to set up the game-winning field goal.

He did all of that just a few weeks removed from suffering a high-ankle sprain in the Divisional Round, which made this stat line all the more impressive. It also begs the question of just how prolific Mahomes can be on this stage, at this point in his career, with a clean bill of health.

2) Super Bowl LIV vs. 49ers (Feb. 2, 2020)

There's no time quite like the first time, and Mahomes gave us a Super Bowl performance to remember in his debut title appearance in 2020.

With his team trailing by 10 points late in the fourth quarter, Mahomes led the Chiefs on three touchdown drives in five minutes to secure the first Lombardi Trophy of his career. He also finished with his most combined yards (315) and touchdowns (three) in the Super Bowl, though he also tied his playoff high with two interceptions.

Perhaps the most notable memory for some bettors was Mahomes plunging into the end zone with 31 seconds left in the first quarter to score the game's first touchdown. He's currently dealing as high as +2500 via bet365 to be the first touchdown scorer of Super Bowl 58.

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3) Super Bowl LV vs. Buccaneers (Feb. 7, 2021)

If you're telling the story of Mahomes' career in the Super Bowl, you have to include his lone loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2021. And the results weren't pretty.

Sure, he still threw for 270 yards while completing 26 of 49 attempts, but he finished with zero touchdowns and multiple interceptions for the only time in his postseason career. That was largely an issue of pass protection, as Mahomes was running for his life all night long against the Buccaneers' blitz-happy front.

If you think he'll have another clunker in Super Bowl 58, you can fetch a nice price on both zero touchdowns (+600 via BetMGM) and multiple interceptions (+425 via bet365). Keep in mind, though, that this Chiefs offensive line is much improved from the one that allowed three sacks and nine QB hits in Super Bowl LV.

How to bet on Patrick Mahomes

In his three Super Bowl appearances, Mahomes is averaging 246 passing yards with a combined six touchdowns (five passing, one rushing) and four interceptions.

Those numbers are actually below his career playoff averages of 282.2 yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game, while four of his seven postseason interceptions have come in the Super Bowl. Could we see a repeat of any of those previous three performances in Super Bowl 2024?

Here's a look at Mahomes' career averages in the Super Bowl, as well as his best Over/Under odds for Sunday's game against the 49ers. We've also listed the implied probability for each side using our odds converter.

Patrick Mahomes projections for Chiefs vs. 49ers

Patrick Mahomes predictions for Super Bowl 58

On paper, this is the worst offense of the Mahomes era, and that was plain to see for much of the 2023 NFL regular season.

Kansas City ranked outside of the top 10 in scoring for the first time in the Mahomes era, and the two-time MVP finished with his fewest passing yards per game (261.4) and touchdowns per game (1.7) in his six years as a starter. The biggest culprit has been an inconsistent receiving corps and a down year from star tight end Travis Kelce, who fell short of 1,000 yards for the first time since 2015.

It's been a different story this postseason, though. While Mahomes' box-score stats haven't been overwhelming, he's averaged nearly 240 yards with a 68% completion rate and a flawless 4-to-0 touchdown to interception ratio. He's also posted zero turnover-worthy plays despite taking more passing snaps than anyone.

Now he faces a 49ers defense that has struggled down the stretch - ranking 28th in PFF grade since Week 15 - and let Jared Goff throw for 273 yards and a score in the NFC Championship. San Francisco also struggled to contain Mahomes in their 2020 title clash and is worse defensively despite retaining many of the same core players.

As we discussed in our Super Bowl passing props and Patrick Mahomes NFL player props, this is a favorable matchup for Mahomes against the Niners, who like to sit back in zone similar to how the Baltimore Ravens did in the AFC Championship. It helps that Kelce is starting to resemble his old form in his ninth consecutive postseason.

We're yet to see a truly spectacular showing from Mahomes in the Super Bowl, even with two Super Bowl MVP trophies on his shelf. It feels like the stars are aligning for him to deliver a signature performance on Sunday.

Predictions: Over 260.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365), Over 1.5 passing TDs (-140 via FanDuel)

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